Closed low forming east of Port Mansfield Thread #2

Opal storm · #21 Postby **Opal storm** » Tue May 30, 2006 6:34 pm

Doesn't really matter if it develops or not,heavy rain and flooding will still be the main threat.Even if it does develop we'll probably see only a td.

CHRISTY · #22 Postby **CHRISTY** » Tue May 30, 2006 6:35 pm

skysummit wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:
skysummit wrote:Well, the pressure at Buoy 42020 is now the lowest it's been in the past 24 hours. It's down to 1011.2mb with a NE wind at 19mph. Buoy 42002 has matched its lowest pressure in the past 24 hours with 1011.7mb and a West wind at 11mph.

This is probably just a bunch of mumble jumble for now, but I'm bored.

The upperlevel low near by is causeing this flareup in the gulf...this is my opinion.

I know...you just mentioned that a few posts up. ULL or not, it'll still be fun to monitor the buoy pressures for the next 24 - 48 hours just for practice.

oh for sure skysummit this for all us was quite a warm up!but i think we are ready.

HouTXmetro · #23 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Tue May 30, 2006 6:37 pm

CHRISTY wrote:
CapeVerdeWave wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:guys on this loop u can see the upper level low near the area causeing this covection to flare up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

Looks a bit anemic, which is typical for popup convection associated with systems like this in this type of setup. It is associated with a trough and shear/some dry air is around it... not exactly ideal development. Also, if I remember correctly, the factors were more favorable for the formation of Allison. Therefore, I wouldn't exactly call this Allison's cousin or a repeat of Allison.

This thing has lost almost all the deep thunderstorm activity it had a couple of hours ago.PS!Remember people persistence is the key here...

To be fair it pulsed up and down yesterday also.

rockyman · #24 Postby **rockyman** » Tue May 30, 2006 6:37 pm

Storm2k is really a great educator...Last year's hysterics have become this year's voices of reason

CHRISTY · #25 Postby **CHRISTY** » Tue May 30, 2006 6:37 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:
CapeVerdeWave wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:guys on this loop u can see the upper level low near the area causeing this covection to flare up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

Looks a bit anemic, which is typical for popup convection associated with systems like this in this type of setup. It is associated with a trough and shear/some dry air is around it... not exactly ideal development. Also, if I remember correctly, the factors were more favorable for the formation of Allison. Therefore, I wouldn't exactly call this Allison's cousin or a repeat of Allison.

This thing has lost almost all the deep thunderstorm activity it had a couple of hours ago.PS!Remember people persistence is the key here...

To be fair it pulsed up and down yesterday also.

true..

MiamiensisWx · #26 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Tue May 30, 2006 6:40 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:To be fair it pulsed up and down yesterday also.

Yes, also very typical with these type of systems (although it also occurs with systems that are truly in the right environment enough for development and are showing signs of it).

Rainband · #27 Postby **Rainband** » Tue May 30, 2006 6:40 pm

rockyman wrote:Storm2k is really a great educator...Last year's hysterics have become this year's voices of reason

I agree

CHRISTY · #28 Postby **CHRISTY** » Tue May 30, 2006 6:41 pm

poof -poof-poof-poof...sooner rather then later somthing will get going.

MiamiensisWx · #29 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Tue May 30, 2006 6:42 pm

rockyman wrote:Storm2k is really a great educator...Last year's hysterics have become this year's voices of reason

I truly agree with that. It is wonderful!

#30 Postby **wx247** » Tue May 30, 2006 6:42 pm

Rainfall amounts could easily reach 7 or 8" + if you caught under some of the heaviest storms associated with this system. One of those areas right now appears to be from Beaumont over toward Lake Charles. We shall see if this rain trains over the same areas and if it does... this could lead to some flooding concerns.

MiamiensisWx · #31 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Tue May 30, 2006 6:44 pm

Dry air alert... look just to the west of it. Notice a dry slot of dry air...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/GULFWV.JPG

A system showing some better signs of organization and cutting away from a trough might have a better chance, but this system may not handle this so well.

CHRISTY · #32 Postby **CHRISTY** » Tue May 30, 2006 6:56 pm

#33 Postby **Starburst** » Tue May 30, 2006 7:00 pm

We had 5 inches of rain here just 2 days ago so we are pretty saturated already I had water almost inside my house so I am sure flooding is going to be a huge factor with this system.

#34 Postby **wx247** » Tue May 30, 2006 7:12 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Dry air alert... look just to the west of it. Notice a dry slot of dry air...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/GULFWV.JPG

A system showing some better signs of organization and cutting away from a trough might have a better chance, but this system may not handle this so well.

Derek Orttt mentions that in his synopsis on their website. It is a great read.

#35 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue May 30, 2006 7:13 pm

From the 8:05PM TWD.

No mention of a surface low in the GOM.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 310001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 14N MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THIS
WAVE HAS WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN
ADDITION...A WIND SHIFT AND LOW-MID LEVEL VORTICITY STRUCTURE IS
EVIDENT. THIS WAVE IS ASSISTING IN TRIGGERING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN
THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 74W S OF 12N
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE PLACEMENT IS BASED UPON CONTINUITY OF
THE MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 24-48 HOURS AS LITTLE WAVE SIGNATURE
IS EVIDENT. THE WAVE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE EPAC TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND A FEW MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WAVE MAY
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED BY THEN.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 5N20W 3N30W 5N40W 3N51W. THE
ITCZ IS ACTIVE TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 10W-15W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N
BETWEEN 23W-33W...AND FROM EQ-8N BETWEEN 38W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 95W-98W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM 24N-29N
BETWEEN 92W-95W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC. 10-15
KT SW SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF WITH A AXIS ALONG 90W. AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
W GULF W OF 90W. EXPECT CONTINUED SURFACE SWLY FLOW TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. THE E GULF SHOULD HAVE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

rockyman · #36 Postby **rockyman** » Tue May 30, 2006 7:14 pm

Here's the link to Derek's website:

http://www.nwhhc.com/gpage1.html

Extremeweatherguy · #37 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue May 30, 2006 7:22 pm

Though not a TD or TS, this system is still causing some areas of breezy coastal weather. Here are some of the latest wind reports near the low:

Corpus Christi = sustained winds of 24mph

Port Aransas = sustained winds of 29mph with gusts to the lower 30s

Bob Hall Pier = Sustained winds near 30mph with gusts to 35mph

San Antonio Bay - Sustained winds near 23mph with gusts to the lower 30s

#38 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Tue May 30, 2006 7:27 pm

Like i said earlier it may not develop but it is possible. Bottom line is heavy rains with system for mid and lower Texas Coast.

ROCK · #39 Postby **ROCK** » Tue May 30, 2006 7:54 pm

Been watching this all day. Similar to a Allison, yes, but without a strong surface low. I wouldn't give it that much chance to develope. The rain is nice though.

CHRISTY · #40 Postby **CHRISTY** » Tue May 30, 2006 8:05 pm

i just saw Jim Cantore on the weather Channel talkin about the Mid level Circulation but hey said its actually shrinking in size and that is probably gonna be a rain event with maybe some gusty winds....which is right on with my thinking. :wink:

Closed low forming east of Port Mansfield Thread #2

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