GOM BLOB ALERT 5-29-06

[Aquawind]

Ohh Man..Classic JB.. I suppose that is hard to deny now that were heading into the season..

[HouTXmetro]

Allison caught most Houstonians by suprise with little notice. The night she came ashore most Houstonians didn't even know there was a Tropical Storm bearing down on the city. Many people were trapped in the wee hours of the morning in their cars from partying, it was a Fri night I think.

[skysummit]

Yea....Allison even put 3 feet of water in my subdivision.....over 200 miles to the east! That's the problem with tropical storms. Lots of times their moisture is much more spread out than a hurricane because of their lack of organization.

[SouthFloridawx]

According to Joe Bastardi, even if this system does not develop; there could be a similar situation in 10-15 days that may develop. he thinks that with each upcoming system there will be a better and better chance of development.

That would be somewhat logical as we move further and further into the season.

Although funny what your saying is rather true. Really anyone could say that and get away with it.

Any of the models picking up on any type of development with this area of persisting convection?

[Swimdude]

Allison caught most Houstonians by suprise with little notice. The night she came ashore most Houstonians didn't even know there was a Tropical Storm bearing down on the city. Many people were trapped in the wee hours of the morning in their cars from partying, it was a Fri night I think.

Pointless argument:

I remember my dad picking me up from summer daycamp when Allison hit and telling me a tropical storm had formed and come onshore... Of course that was much more exciting to me than remembering the day it occured, but I want to say it was early in the week, not on Friday, and certainly not at night, I don't believe.

[Stratosphere747]

Allison caught most Houstonians by suprise with little notice. The night she came ashore most Houstonians didn't even know there was a Tropical Storm bearing down on the city. Many people were trapped in the wee hours of the morning in their cars from partying, it was a Fri night I think.

Pointless argument:

I remember my dad picking me up from summer daycamp when Allison hit and telling me a tropical storm had formed and come onshore... Of course that was much more exciting to me than remembering the day it occured, but I want to say it was early in the week, not on Friday, and certainly not at night, I don't believe.

Confirmation of a closed circulation came at 1800 UTC when Buoy 42019 (located about 60 n mi south of Freeport, TX) reported a light northwest wind and a pressure of 1006.6 mb just west of the surface center. At 1852 UTC, aircraft personnel on the first U.S. Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight of the day "closed off" the low-level circulation about 80 n mi south-southwest of Galveston, TX. A combination of a 55 kt flight-level (1500 ft) wind report and the earlier ship reports indicated that the storm had strengthened. The cyclone tracked slowly north-northwestward and weakened slightly (based on offshore buoy reports) just before making landfall southwest of Galveston near Freeport, TX. Its center then tracked slowly northward across the western portions of the Houston metropolitan area during the night of the 5th and the morning of the 6th.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001allison.html

[GalvestonDuck]

Allison first struck on Tuesday June 5, and althought I'm not sure what time of day she made official "landfall" (since I was still new to tropical weather watching back then), her effects were felt early in the day. We had numerous power outages here at work starting at around 10am, then had to do a rush job on securing equipment and patient files before we were released shortly after noon to go home.

And then she hung around for what felt like days, giving Houston the brunt of the damage. Here on the island, we got plenty of rain, but it drained in a relatively decent amount of time.

[HouTXmetro]

Was it the remnants that came back that weekend? I vividly remember telling a friend I would not go out because some heavy rain was moving in. I stayed in and he got caught in the flood.

[Stratosphere747]

Was it the remnants that came back that weekend? I vividly remember telling a friend I would not go out because some heavy rain was moving in. I stayed in and he got caught in the flood.

It actually stalled somewhere in the vicinity of Lufkin/Huntsville and slowly drifted south and eventually back over the water. If I remember correctly, dry air kept it from actually re-developing again.

[skysummit]

Back to the Blob....

It currently has 30-40kts of shear over it, but it is decreasing. When it comes to shear, the western and northern gulf looks to be rather favorable for the rest of the week. I wonder if the convection will persist?

[HouTXmetro]

we have 50% chance of rain the remainder of the week. So I'd imagine the convection isn't going anywhere yet. However I think someone stated the main feature should move onshore.

[stormtruth]

Houston got very lucky dodging Rita. A strong hurricane would flood out Houston again and could put in the dark for a month or longer. The blackout could kill people as they suffer with no AC. Just the threat of another storm will kill another 100 or so people as they try to evacuate. It's a dangerous place to live. Houston is even at major risk from tropical storms. It's not safe

[skysummit]

I'd much rather be in Houston for a Tropical Storm or Hurricane than South Louisiana....actually, I'd much rather be anywhere.

[stormtruth]

I'd much rather be in Houston for a Tropical Storm or Hurricane than South Louisiana....actually, I'd much rather be anywhere.

True, but Houston is the next disaster waiting to happen. South La. is still in very serious trouble.

[jasons2k]

Houston got very lucky dodging Rita. A strong hurricane would flood out Houston again and could put in the dark for a month or longer. The blackout could kill people as they suffer with no AC. Just the threat of another storm will kill another 100 or so people as they try to evacuate. It's a dangerous place to live. Houston is even at major risk from tropical storms.

It's not any more dangerous than any other place on the coast. Or California. Or Oklahoma City. Pick your poison

If anything, it's a bit safer because we are a bit inland and we have an excellent infrastructure in place - at least as compared to many other places.

[stormtruth]

Houston got very lucky dodging Rita. A strong hurricane would flood out Houston again and could put in the dark for a month or longer. The blackout could kill people as they suffer with no AC. Just the threat of another storm will kill another 100 or so people as they try to evacuate. It's a dangerous place to live. Houston is even at major risk from tropical storms.

It's not any more dangerous than any other place on the coast. Or California. Or Oklahoma City. Pick your poison

If anything, it's a bit safer because we are a bit inland and we have an excellent infrastructure in place - at least as compared to many other places.

Yes, it is. Houston faces the constant threat of flooding rains, power outages and hurricanes. Unlike the cooler SoCal coast Houston residents will suffer terribly if the AC goes without power for very long. One bad heat wave combined with a power outage and thousands will die. Remember what happened in Europe about three years ago. 30K to 50K people died from a heat wave. Other cities also have a heat wave risk but Houston has a massive population and sits close to the coast where a Hurricane could easily knock out power to millions of residents. Houston's population size also creates extra risk during evacuations -- like the 100 or so that were killed when everyone tried to leave during Rita.

[Stratosphere747]

Why all the negativity against Houston? Any large metropolitan city near the coast faces these same dangers.

With concern to the "blob" It's that time of year.......A few more days and it might begin to become a real topic.

[drezee]

Winds at 42002 switched to W over the last two hours. At first I thought it was an outflow boundary (abrupt chang in direction and increase in speed), but the pressure didn't abruptly rise after passage. The next few hours will be crucial.

[skysummit]

Power could be out for more than a month. Parts of New Orleans are STILL without power! Southern California is not so "cool". Actually, the only part of Cali that's actually cool is the San Fransisco area and right along the northern coast. I was in San Fransisco 2 weeks ago. A 1 hour drive down to San Jose put me in the 90's with high humidity. Even 2 hours north of Sacremento we were in the lower 90's.

They may not get numerous threats of flooding, but it doesn flood there, and it is terrible...especially with all the mudslides.

[stormtruth]

Power could be out for more than a month. Parts of New Orleans are STILL without power! Southern California is not so "cool". Actually, the only part of Cali that's actually cool is the San Fransisco area and right along the northern coast. I was in San Fransisco 2 weeks ago. A 1 hour drive down to San Jose put me in the 90's with high humidity. Even 2 hours north of Sacremento we were in the lower 90's.

They may not get numerous threats of flooding, but it doesn flood there, and it is terrible...especially with all the mudslides.

True it gets very hot inland. I was thinking just right along the coast like Newport Beach area.