TD Aletta,Last Advisorie Posted

[cycloneye]

A new thread about the last legs of Aletta is now open.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... sc&start=0



Thread #1.

[Derek Ortt]

per a question in the previous thread

once these things start to weaken, they usually die and do not reform farther west, as the waters are cooler farther west

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow this thing fall apart...Shear patterns looked to have started to have becoming more faverable sunday when I last checked it. In today bye bye

[CHRISTY]

Wow this thing fall apart...Shear patterns looked to have started to have becoming more faverable sunday when I last checked it. In today bye bye

Actually shear is forcast to increase big time.

[cycloneye]

450
WTPZ21 KNHC 302041
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006
2100Z TUE MAY 30 2006


TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 103.9W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 103.9W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 103.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.4N 104.6W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.4N 105.8W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 103.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

FORECASTER FRANKLIN



101
WTPZ41 KNHC 302041
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006
200 PM PDT TUE MAY 30 2006

VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ALETTA
HAS BECOME DIFFUSE AND ILL-DEFINED. CONSEQUENTLY...THE SYSTEM IS NO
LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE
CONVECTION THAT WAS PRESENT EARLIER HAS LARGELY EVAPORATED. VERTICAL
SHEAR IS STRONG OVER THE SYSTEM AND EXPECTED TO GET STRONGER. GIVEN
THIS AND THE DRY ENVIRONMENT...REGENERATION IS UNLIKELY. THE
REMNANTS OF ALETTA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTH OF A MID- TO LOWER-LEVEL RIDGE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 16.4N 103.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 31/0600Z 16.4N 104.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 31/1800Z 16.4N 105.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED


Rest in peace.

[mtm4319]

How much is left to say about this storm... er, depression?



There were 15 posts left in the 10th page of the old thread... I think we're pulling the trigger on the "lock topic" a bit too early, but that's just my opinion.

[MiamiensisWx]

Aletta is becoming shriveled. Shear is increasing to the northwest of it and is causing it to be sheared, based on CMISS shear maps. However, I think this may hang on for a while more before dissipating.

[Aquawind]

Excellent with minor problems to Mexico.. Although I read a foot of rain in the mountains and beneficial rains in Alcopolco I heard of no casualties.

[cycloneye]

There were 15 posts left in the 10th page of the old thread... I think we're pulling the trigger on the "lock topic" a bit too early, but that's just my opinion.

The new rule is that when a thread reaches 10 pages it is locked and a new thread with the same title is created.Actually that thread surpassed the limit by four posts.

[mtm4319]

There were 15 posts left in the 10th page of the old thread... I think we're pulling the trigger on the "lock topic" a bit too early, but that's just my opinion.

The new rule is that when a thread reaches 10 pages it is locked and a new thread with the same title is created.Actually that thread surpassed the limit by four posts.

Then I must have mistook "10 pages" for "10 full pages". This, to me, is a 9-page limit. I guess it's just semantics though.

Southerngale, a moderator stated the following in the original announcement topic:

Keep in mind that the threads could go to 11 pages or so sometimes because several people could be posting at the same time, but a mod will get it locked and a new one started as soon as possible when they reach 10 pages.

It's more intuitive to me to let a topic run the full 10 pages anyway, since most of the time the 10th page has started by the time the topic is locked, but it's only a minor point of disagreement. Please don't take this as complaining.

[cycloneye]

I am going to allow from now on the threads to reach the full 10 pages or 199 replies so no disagreement at all.

[MiamiensisWx]

At least this thing will die at sea.