Safe Ridge Developing For Northern Central Gulf?

[Sean in New Orleans]

Certainly have a ridge over us now, which is keeping us hot and dry. And the ridge is getting pretty solid..it's been in place, now, for several weeks. Carl Arredondo, on WWL-TV, in New Orleans, says that if this ridge remains peristent, we could see a return to many East coast storms for this season, as has been discussed by quite a few mets and specialists. As Carl says, "Not to say that we won't have any storms in the Gulf, but, the ridge, as it is now, will be a good thing for the Northern Central Gulf. It's still early, but, we are heading into a Summer pattern, as June approaches, and these Summer ridges that develop are quite persistent and stubborn...it usually takes fronts or a major change in patterns to move these Summer ridges. We'll see...we've got some time, for sure, but, obviously, Summer is setting itself up, right now, as it does every year in early June.

[skysummit]

On the downside of things, we can now expect heat indexes in August to be touching 120 degrees

[no advance]

Joe B was on tv yesterday said he expects alot of east coast action this yr. 5 majors?

[Extremeweatherguy]

The ridge is prob. not as strong toward FL or back toward TX as they have both seen a few rain episodes recently.

[canetracker]

The ridge is good for cane protection, but bad for no relief from the heat and drought. I do hope this thing will budge soon.

[HouTXmetro]

Heavy rain in Coastal TX/SE TX/NW-W GOM, for the past few days and expected to continue throughout the week. Wouldn't that mean any storm riding under the Ridge may make it's dreaded NW turn toward TX?

[Stratusxpeye]

The ridge is prob. not as strong toward FL or back toward TX as they have both seen a few rain episodes recently.

I must have missed this rain. I have only seen rain twice this year. Few weeks back had about .5 inch and way back in feb had a huge storm dumped about 7-8 inches in 1 day. Other than that nothing. Hope this changes sometime soon. usually in our summer thunderstorm pattern by now. Just east of the 75 here on the higher terrain we get the worst of em with the seabreeze but nothing this year so far.

[cajungal]

The high is taking more of a west turn towards Texas. The radar shows heavy rain heading this way. I would not count on the ridge staying presistant protecting Louisiana. Especially come late August to late September, that is when our best chances of getting a storm head this way. Lili hit central Louisiana as late as October 3rd.

[Opal storm]

I don't think this ridge will stay where it is right now for the ENTIRE season,so im not letting my gaurd down.And I think that local met is really going out on a limb by saying that ridge is going to protect us this season.I've already heard people who saw Joe Bastardi's landfall forecast here in Pensacola say that we are out of the woods this season,no storms for us.Well we'll see what happens.

But yeah if anything formed right now in the Gulf it would probably head into Texas,and I don't think TX is going to be so lucky this year.

[LAwxrgal]

It's probably too soon for Arredondo to make THAT call at this point. There's been heavy rain in W LA for the past few days and it hasn't budged because of the ridge that's in place over us. We just have to monitor the situation carefully.

Remember last year Arlene formed in the GOM? That set the table for what was perhaps the worst GOM season ever. I guess we probably need to watch where the first storm forms and maybe that will be a portent of the pattern to come for this season.

[Steve]

Completely agree with LAwxrgal. I think Carl was just waxing philosophical. Rarely do any ridges not actually associated with the sometimes-found "Ring of Fire" last for an entire summer on the continental United States. Drought does, however, feed back on itself. Those things pulse and refire. What we have to see is whether the highs moving W to E across the MS and Ohio Valleys are joining up with the bermuda high or just drifting off to the NE. That'll be key to the summer setup.

Steve

[Stormcenter]

On the downside of things, we can now expect heat indexes in August to be touching 120 degrees

Let' see if I lived in N.O. and I had a choice between a let's say Cat 4-5 hurricane and a heatwave hmmmm.....I think I would take the heatwave.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I think most everyone put in that position would choose the far lesser of two evils.

[Sean in New Orleans]

On the downside of things, we can now expect heat indexes in August to be touching 120 degrees

Let' see if I lived in N.O. and I had a choice between a let's say Cat 4-5 hurricane and a heatwave hmmmm.....I think I would take the heatwave.

I'd be the same in Houston, as well. Anywhere, along the GOM, this year. If the ridge does hold, with some shifts W and E this Summer, I'm concerned by late June we could see a return to Summer 1980, when we had somewhat of a similar set-up, and a large swath of the Gulf South experienced day in and day out temperatures over 105F...with very dry conditions. It's still early. In regards, to hurricanes, we have some more time to watch, but, the present set-up would send GOM hurricanes to Texas, and the East coast could get socked as storms go between this ridge and the Bermuda high up the East coast.

[BayouVenteux]

On the downside of things, we can now expect heat indexes in August to be touching 120 degrees

Let' see if I lived in N.O. and I had a choice between a let's say Cat 4-5 hurricane and a heatwave hmmmm.....I think I would take the heatwave.

I'd be the same in Houston, as well. Anywhere, along the GOM, this year. If the ridge does hold, with some shifts W and E this Summer, I'm concerned by late June we could see a return to Summer 1980, when we had somewhat of a similar set-up, and a large swath of the Gulf South experienced day in and day out temperatures over 105F...with very dry conditions. It's still early. In regards, to hurricanes, we have some more time to watch, but, the present set-up would send GOM hurricanes to Texas, and the East coast could get socked as storms go between this ridge and the Bermuda high up the East coast.

In '80 if I recall, there weren't even any east coast threats to speak of, as most of the storms formed very far in the eastern tropical Atlantic and recurved east of the '50's. Allen was the only long tracker that year, riding under the ridge all the way westward into the RGV.

[Ivan14]

My gut feeling is that the Gulf is going to have a real bad year again.

[crabbyhermit]

I'm in NOLA and I'll take the heat wave, at least this summer, to give us a chance to get back on our feet. I'm just remebering in past summers when it would be just so hot and humid and downright gross, I'd say things like, man, we need a good blow from a storm or hurricane just to come through and give us some relief! Seriously! I dont' think I'll wish for that again.

[Opal storm]

I wouldn't put so much hope into this ridge thinking it will keep the north central Gulf coast in the clear this season.

[HollynLA]

Carl Arredondo also said "Katrina is NOT coming to New Orleans"

It's the end of May, the high will not stick around till October or November. Also, today, we had constant cloud cover, slight breeze, and even some sprinkles, so is the high really so strong?

[wxmann_91]

Heat ridge has certainly been above average. Many models and ensembles show little end in sight. I guess we'll see how things pan out. Certainly has killed the severe wx season, but I guess that's OT.