Global models coincide on low,Will it be subtropical?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146206
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Global models coincide on low,Will it be subtropical?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 28, 2006 6:30 pm

12z GFS at 120 hours

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

12z NOGAPS at 120 hours

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

These are not those very long range 384 hours but very shorter timeperiods at 120 hours in which at least two global models show a low pressure in the EastCentral Atlantic.The question is if that low will be a cold core or something that may turn subtropical.Let's see in the next runs of these models what they show.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Jun 03, 2006 1:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#2 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 28, 2006 6:35 pm

Something more to keep an eye on!!!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2813
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:
Contact Hybridstorm_November2001

#3 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sun May 28, 2006 6:49 pm

Something to watch indeed.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
terstorm1012
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1314
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:36 pm
Location: Millersburg, PA

#4 Postby terstorm1012 » Sun May 28, 2006 7:12 pm

moving toward Charleston perhaps? ;-)

(sorry I could not resist. I will keep a watch on it indeed.)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146206
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 28, 2006 7:18 pm

Yes,something to follow in the first days of the 2006 season.Let's see how this evolve,or into something tropical or it will be a cold core extratropical low.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
CHRISTY

#6 Postby CHRISTY » Sun May 28, 2006 7:35 pm

Convection continues to flare up in this area....I think this feature weather its cold core or something that turns subtropical may come out of this mess!

Image
Last edited by CHRISTY on Sun May 28, 2006 7:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#7 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 28, 2006 7:35 pm

cycloneye wrote:Yes,something to follow in the first days of the 2006 season.Let's see how this evolve,or into something tropical or it will be a cold core extratropical low.


I don't expect anything tropical, but there is a possibility it could become subtropical.

The farthest east and north a tropical cyclone has developed in June in a non-tropical region in the Atlantic was at 27N 58W in 1999, remember Arlene!!!!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146206
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 28, 2006 7:36 pm

18z GFS at 120 hours

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

By looking at this 18z run we can see trends from the models,in this case from the GFS.This 18z run has the trend of sustaining the low and have it more deeper than the 12z run.Let's follow subsequent runs to see how the trend goes.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sun May 28, 2006 7:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
CHRISTY

#9 Postby CHRISTY » Sun May 28, 2006 7:37 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Yes,something to follow in the first days of the 2006 season.Let's see how this evolve,or into something tropical or it will be a cold core extratropical low.


I don't expect anything tropical, but there is a possibility it could become subtropical.

The farthest east and north a tropical cyclone has developed in June in a non-tropical region in the Atlantic was at 27N 58W in 1999, remember Arlene!!!!


yep! :wink:
0 likes   
Top
CHRISTY

#10 Postby CHRISTY » Sun May 28, 2006 7:38 pm

Have u guys seen the area of convection iam talkin about?
0 likes   
Top
CHRISTY

#11 Postby CHRISTY » Sun May 28, 2006 7:47 pm

Guys take a look at this Shear model from the navy 96 hours out in time! scroll down.

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/wxgrid.pl?aor+ngpshrcolor+alltimes
0 likes   
Top
HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#12 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun May 28, 2006 7:51 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Not suprised, the shear map shows that the shear should continue decreasing for awhile. Alberto has suddenly come into my mind.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#13 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 28, 2006 7:57 pm

If it becomes Alberto, it will be a good Alberto!!!
0 likes   
Top
CHRISTY

#14 Postby CHRISTY » Sun May 28, 2006 8:26 pm

Guys check out this loop it intensifys this thing pretty good...In what form dont know?

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=atlatrop_slp
0 likes   
Top
HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#15 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun May 28, 2006 8:38 pm

Basically it gets picked up by a front and strengthens into an Extratropical Low.
0 likes   
Top
CHRISTY

#16 Postby CHRISTY » Sun May 28, 2006 9:03 pm

Here is a much better view of it!
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=natla_slp
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#17 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 28, 2006 9:11 pm

Too far north and east for my taste!!!
0 likes   
Top
CHRISTY

#18 Postby CHRISTY » Sun May 28, 2006 9:14 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Too far north and east for my taste!!!


yea it probably wont amount to anything....To far north yes.
0 likes   
Top
JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:
Contact JonathanBelles

#19 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun May 28, 2006 9:52 pm

looks impressive but its a dud
0 likes   
Top
spinfan4eva
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 295
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 1:27 am
Location: Jacksonville, Florida
Contact:
Contact spinfan4eva

#20 Postby spinfan4eva » Sun May 28, 2006 11:35 pm

After careful and indepth analysis of the GFS model at 120 hrs I proclaim this idea and forecast as...........
Image
NO GOOD!!
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: jlauderdal and 32 guests