NWS MIA Mentions Bermuda High for the First time in 2006

[gatorcane]

You know summer is around the corner - isn't this a bit early for them to be mentioning it extending all the way SW into South Florida? Thoughts on this High and upcoming hurricane season?

000
FXUS62 KMFL 261839
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
239 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...WELL...STORMS FINALLY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AT MOST. FEW OF THEM EVEN GOT TO SEVERE STATUS.
THE EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HELPED TO KEEP MAX TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES COOLER AND THIS IN TURN KEPT THE ACTIVITY TO A
MINIMUM. WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVERNIGHT JUST FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
LATE STARTER. SATURDAY WEATHER LOOKS MORE OF THE CONVECTIVE TYPE
WITH STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...MORE SUNSHINE AND THE EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE/SEA BREEZES. SURFACE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO MORE
ESE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH GETS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WITH RIDGE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL MAKE THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PENETRATE FURTHER INLAND POSSIBLY
INITIATING CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE WIND FLOW AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING
THE STORMS TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE
ERODED BY AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE FLOW AROUND THIS TROUGH WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO
SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, SO WILL INDICATE LOW POPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.


&&

[28_Storms]

[28_Storms]

Hurricane season is almost here!!!

[spinfan4eva]

Man, summer has been here and that may have been the first time you have seen the words 'bermuda high' but I'd guess that its been in place for at least a month as we havent had any cold fronts. I think the subtropical ridge is the same thing and that has been mentioned throughout the winter/spring.. The Bermuda high occaisionally noses into florida in the winter months but because its not permanent, no one mentions it as such, they just call it the 'subtropical ridge'. At any rate, this heat is old and im ready for a cold front.

[Ivan14]

Wow so what would this mean for the Gulf of Mexico?

[gatorcane]

As far as the Gulf of Mexico, it is early to tell. A strong Bermuda High that extends well into the GOM could mean tracks into the western GOM and Mexican coasts. If the Bermuda High does not extend as far west it could mean storms curving out to sea before hitting the east coast of the U.S. I am calling for at least 1 major Cape Verde hurricane to ride around this Bermuda High and either hit or at least threaten the East Coast U.S. (but maybe not hit). But that will not be until late August or September.

Regarding the NWS mentioning the Bermuda High in late May - is this normal or early?

[CHRISTY]

My opinion is the Bermuda high will be strong this year....

[gatorcane]

The current Bermuda High position would not send storms to Florida though. Maybe it will stay like that

[CHRISTY]

The current Bermuda High position would not send storms to Florida though. Maybe it will stay like that

I dont think it will...i hope iam wrong!

[boca]

Remember Christy I purchased storm shutters so storms won't hit our area. Ha Ha.

[deltadog03]

I have a strong feeling that the bermuda high will be very strong at least in the early to mid portions of summer. That means mexico, western and central gulf would have to play heads up. I do think that florida and possibly the east coast gets to play as well late in the season. However, I am not going all in on the east coast and NE coast like some are saying.

[Opal storm]

I have a strong feeling that the bermuda high will be very strong at least in the early to mid portions of summer. That means mexico, western and central gulf would have to play heads up. I do think that florida and possibly the east coast gets to play as well late in the season. However, I am not going all in on the east coast and NE coast like some are saying.

I agree.I think the Gulf coast will be the hot spot again this year, but unlike 04 and 05 I don't think TX will be so lucky.

[Rainband]

I have a strong feeling that the bermuda high will be very strong at least in the early to mid portions of summer. That means mexico, western and central gulf would have to play heads up. I do think that florida and possibly the east coast gets to play as well late in the season. However, I am not going all in on the east coast and NE coast like some are saying.

Interesting. Can you explain why you think this.

[gatorcane]

I have a strong feeling that the bermuda high will be very strong at least in the early to mid portions of summer. That means mexico, western and central gulf would have to play heads up. I do think that florida and possibly the east coast gets to play as well late in the season. However, I am not going all in on the east coast and NE coast like some are saying.

Interesting. Can you explain why you think this.

Yes I am looking forward to the explanation here. Looking at some of the global models - the Bermuda High may establish itself again several days down the road (at 144 hours) but its center is located well east of Bermuda, in a setup that would curve any storms out to sea on its western periphery.

[MiamiensisWx]

Yes I am looking forward to the explanation here. Looking at some of the global models - the Bermuda High may establish itself again several days down the road (at 144 hours) but its center is located well east of Bermuda, in a setup that would curve any storms out to sea on its western periphery.

The setup and synoptic scenario(s) shown would also indicate a potential threat to the Carolinas, northeastern U.S. and New England (especially Long Island to Cape Cod area), and/or eastern Canada if it stayed and lasted through the summer or emerge as a player in August/September/October, with a mean Canada ridge and generally negative NAO pattern and steering currents acting as reinforcing steering for storms around the mean Azores-Bermuda High (east-central Atlantic ridging synoptic) west-northwest and eventually northwestward. However, the current setup patterns also indicate the possibility that we may see a strong establishment of the Bermuda High in the western and west-central Atlantic beginning around late June or during July (most likely during July). Past climatology and past setups/analogs - as well as factors - indicate this. If that scenario occurs, it could provide favorable steering currents and upper-level support for storms to strengthen and threaten the Carolinas and increase the risk of an east hit/threats to southeast Florida. This would be a particularly dangerous setup for the southeastern U.S. coast. Let's see how the NAO, SSTs, and PDO/PNA - as well as other factors - play out.

[MiamiensisWx]

Bottom line is that it is still a bit early to tell.

[LAwxrgal]

LOL true.

Each year brings its own synoptic setup, and while you can often compare each year to previous years, the patterns in existence for that year will often stand on its own. As someone mentioned, last year the Bermuda High was in such a position to allow stronger storms to recurve and weaker systems to ride underneath the ridge.

Unfortunately for us last year, these "weak systems" often blew up once they got into the sizzling Gulf of Mexico (Katrina and then Rita prime examples of that).

For the season we had, there wasn't a Cape Verde hurricane of any significance. The big storms (with the notable exception of Wilma, which came up in the Caribbean) were homebrew systems...

Will we see a pattern like that this year? Too soon to tell... just have to wait and see.

[deltadog03]

I have a strong feeling that the bermuda high will be very strong at least in the early to mid portions of summer. That means mexico, western and central gulf would have to play heads up. I do think that florida and possibly the east coast gets to play as well late in the season. However, I am not going all in on the east coast and NE coast like some are saying.

Interesting. Can you explain why you think this.

Yes I am looking forward to the explanation here. Looking at some of the global models - the Bermuda High may establish itself again several days down the road (at 144 hours) but its center is located well east of Bermuda, in a setup that would curve any storms out to sea on its western periphery.

Sorry it has taken so long to respond. Anyway, I think one can only look to what the pattern looks like right now. What I mean by that is the fact that look how the west is pretty much dominated by high pressure and the east is in somewhat of a Trough. I was trying to look for some kind of map to show ya but, I couldn't really find one. Now, for my texas in the house, we know how much rain the SE coast is and has gotten the last couple of days. IF** the current pattern was to hold somewhat into next month and specially late next month then there could be enough of a trof split near our coast to allow an escape route into TX. Depends on where the ridge sets-up and a few other things.

[Rainband]

Yall sure don't need anymore rain Stay safe