91E invest at EPAC,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[CHRISTY]

i see a possible cyclonic circulation in the pacific and a flow over mexico into the gulf of mexico...maybe the pattern will shift by this weekend as the the high along the gulf shifts east allowing storms in the gulf to creep north toward the coast. PS!then again i will not go against jeff masters.so probably nothing will happen.

here a visible loop...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov./goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[MiamiensisWx]

i see a possible cyclonic circulation in the pacific and a flow over mexico into the gulf of mexico...maybe the pattern will shift by this weekend as the the high along the gulf shifts east allowing storms in the gulf to creep north toward the coast. PS!then again i will not go against jeff masters.so probably nothing will happen.

here a visible loop...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov./goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

Looks to be nearly stationary as the southwesterly moisture flow and shear pulls at it.

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 262259
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0400 PM PDT FRI MAY 26 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE DISTURBED WEATHER... WHICH INCLUDES WINDS OF
25-35 MPH...IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW
CENTER. WHILE UPPER-LEVELS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO... ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
EVEN IF A DEPRESSION DOES NOT FORM... HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

$$



It will be a close call about this being upgraded to a TD.

[HURAKAN]

The NHC says that a tropical cyclone could form near Mexico. They also admit that environmental condicions are not favorable to develop. Right now, the system doesn't look like it will develop anytime soon.

[HURAKAN]

26/2345 UTC 14.3N 101.6W T1.0/1.0 91E -- East Pacific Ocean

[NONAME]

Im thinking its chance has expired!

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'd still give it a chance if the NHC still thinks it could form.

[HurricaneJoe22]

it's looking healthy tonight with a blowup of deep convection in a ball shape around where the center possibly is located...I say TD by 11 a.m. if the trend continues

[P.K.]

27/0545 UTC 14.8N 101.7W T1.5/1.5 91E -- East Pacific Ocean

[P.K.]

NRL says we have TD 1.

[P.K.]

27/0845 UTC 14.9N 101.2W T2.0/2.0 91E -- East Pacific Ocean

[P.K.]

WTPZ41 KNHC 270943
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006
300 AM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH DEEP ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A STRONG
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS LOCATED TO THE
WEST OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...ONLY SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR COULD BRING THE
SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THEREFORE...
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MEANDER SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL
AND GLOBAL MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...ANY NORTHWARD DRIFT COULD BRING
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO. INTERESTS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
DEPRESSION.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1000Z 14.5N 101.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 14.6N 101.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 15.0N 101.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 15.5N 101.4W 30 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 16.0N 101.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 16.5N 102.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 31/0600Z 16.5N 102.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 01/0600Z 16.5N 103.0W 30 KT

[cycloneye]

Now that TD one-E has formed this thread is locked.