i shouldn't do this....but

[linkerweather]

I know how much many of you like to look at whatever you like and then decide it will be the big one. So, for those of you who put all of your stock in the GFS at around 12 or 13 days feast your eyes on this...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_336s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_348s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_360s.gif

See how many posts we can get.

[skysummit]

Maybe this should be put in Luis's long range model thread.

[linkerweather]

My bad. I didn't really have much time this morning to look back at other threads. Chalk one up for me for bad message board etiquitte.

[skysummit]

LOL....I was just kidding. Unlike some others, I do like to see what the GFS says at long range. It's been forming systems at the end of its run for days now. I guess it's telling us...."hey, there's something around the corner, but I just don't know where yet".

[x-y-no]

Troublemaker!


I know I'm not losing any sleep over a 1008mb low in day 15 of the GFS. If it's still showing something tropical looking around that timeframe in next Friday's runs, then I'll sit up and take notice. For now it just indicates some potential.

[skysummit]

Most likely, it'll stay between the 10 - 15 day mark. If it starts moving closer on a day by day basis, I'll pay attention to it. It is interesting though how the GFS is constantly trying to start something.

[wxman57]

If you've been keen keeping an eye on the GFS for over a week now, the GFS has been showing development in the SW Caribbean on every run. But that development is always in the last 2-3 days of each run. Originally, the development was forecast for around June 2nd. Looks like a typical GFS long-range false alarm.

[Jim Hughes]

Here we go again people. The solar wind peaked on May13th. (Around 630 km/sec) You can see this for yourself right here.

Look under Solar Wind Bulk Speed


http://www.sel.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/ac ... pam_1h.txt

So there is a distinct possibility that we should be seeing a considerable rise in the solar wind speed around June 8th again if the recurrent coronal hole is still around.

This is the 3rd time in a row that the GFS is forecasting formation around the time frame of when the solar wind should be peaking.

It looks like the space weather forecasters have common thoughts with the GFS. Their seven day outlook should lag the GFS by 7-8 days. (This would be the GFS 14-15 day outlook from about seven days ago. It's formation date was around June 2nd I believe).

Look at this seven day outlook for the solar winds. Look at the 3rd chart. (Bottom one).

http://sec.noaa.gov/ws/predvel_7d.html


The green dots are the forecast from MWO. This is the forecast given out by Mount Wilson Observatory. They show it risng on June 2nd. This was one of the dates that some of you said the GFS was forecasting for a possible development a while ago. Am I correct about the date here?


Like I have mentioned before. We all know that the solar wind speed is not fed into the models but I firmly believe that the atmosphere is effected by this. So the repetitive cyclical nature of space weather seems to cause the models to forecast certain trends because of their possible upcoming presence. This tells me that they might be trying to indirectly pick up on a physical relationship.

So lets see what happens if we see increased solar winds again late next week. Will the GFS start showing a low pressure system developing around 6/28-29 in their 12-14 day runs?


Jim

[P.K.]

lol, thats well into FI. I never look past 180 hours when looking at the GFS.

[windycity]

interesting, jim!! i would love to see if theres a conection there!