91E invest at EPAC,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[CrazyC83]

I give it a 60% chance of developing into Aletta right now.

[hurricanefloyd5]

what.. where did you come up with that 60% of Aletta??????????????

[CrazyC83]

what.. where did you come up with that 60% of Aletta??????????????

It's my guess at this point.

[Ivan14]

Well it certainly is possible that it could become Aletta. All it has to do is get better organized.

[skysummit]

5/25 12z models:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I can tell you that here is a LLC/MLC developing...With some convection forming over it. I say it has a fair chance at developing...

[x-y-no]

Well, QuikScat at a few hours ago does show a weak closed surface circulation at about 12N 99.5W or so.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBds14.png

The environment is a bit complicated. That jet to the north could ventilate it or it could tear up the structure some. And it's still in the ITCZ.

We'll see. It certainly has some small chance to go.

[x-y-no]

Organization is still pretty poor. That LLC that QuikScat saw is displaced a good 2 degrees NE of the MLC that one sees on visible sattelite.

[cycloneye]

Organization is still pretty poor. That LLC that QuikScat saw is displaced a good 2 degrees NE of the MLC that one sees on visible sattelite.

Two degrees is a lot.It has plenty of organization to do before it turns into a TD.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I will check it out tomarrow got to go...But yes once this doe's form convection it could pull together quickly.

[CHRISTY]

I say it has a good chance to make to atleast TS Status.lets see what happens!

Here is a close up IR image...



and here's a closeup visible...

[hurricanefloyd5]

NEHO (NORTHEAST HURRICANE OFFICE)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
400 PM PDT THU MAY 25 2006
SATELLITE INTERCATES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1E IS FORMING
IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED FEW HUNDRED MILES OF
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO WE WILL MONITER IT FOR SLOW FORMTION.
ELSEWHERE NO TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS EXPECTED.

FORECASTER NEWELL

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 252223
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0400 PM PDT THU MAY 25 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AND
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED THIS AFTERNOON... AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
OR NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

$$




It looks better this late afternoon.

[hurricanefloyd5]

im so sorry if my last post is a faults post!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[MiamiensisWx]

Slowly consolidating, although it is being impacted by shear... if current organization keeps up, we may well have a depression on our hands.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[MiamiensisWx]

By the way, I think the board may go crazy in a while.

[HURAKAN]

"Lets get started"!!!!

[NONAME]

Hey Christy What is you link to the model I Been looking for one.

[CHRISTY]

Hey Christy What is you link to the model I Been looking for one.

Which one?

[NONAME]

the Model plots for 91E