Audrey2Katrina wrote:Only 1 week left in the preseason (less by now), and frankly, I'm hoping for an uneventful season.... for a "pleasant" change!
A2K
Here's to keeping our fingers crossed, right A2K?
New Orleans Seen AS Top Target This Season -News Article
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Stormcenter
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bvigal
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I can just hear the meeting in the press conference room ... "OK, it's hurricane season coming up, we need something that will grab headlines. What about NO getting hit again? Nothing could garner more attention (**and, consequently, $$$) than that. Martin, start digging for some scientific types who will back this up and lend credibility."...
and so it goes! Truth: the whole truth and nothing but the truth - a concept never to be seen again in the media!
and so it goes! Truth: the whole truth and nothing but the truth - a concept never to be seen again in the media!
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Audrey2Katrina
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sunny wrote:Audrey2Katrina wrote:Only 1 week left in the preseason (less by now), and frankly, I'm hoping for an uneventful season.... for a "pleasant" change!
A2K
Here's to keeping our fingers crossed, right A2K?
Fingers.....toes.....and in my case.... EYES!
A2K
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Flossy 56 Audrey 57 Hilda 64* Betsy 65* Camille 69* Edith 71 Carmen 74 Bob 79 Danny 85 Elena 85 Juan 85 Florence 88 Andrew 92*, Opal 95, Danny 97, Georges 98*, Isidore 02, Lili 02, Ivan 04, Cindy 05*, Dennis 05, Katrina 05*, Gustav 08*, Isaac 12*, Nate 17, Barry 19, Cristobal 20, Marco, 20, Sally, 20, Zeta 20*, Claudette 21 IDA* 21 Francine *24
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skysummit
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Audrey2Katrina wrote:sunny wrote:Audrey2Katrina wrote:Only 1 week left in the preseason (less by now), and frankly, I'm hoping for an uneventful season.... for a "pleasant" change!
A2K
Here's to keeping our fingers crossed, right A2K?
Fingers.....toes.....and in my case.... EYES!
A2K
Now put on a straw hat and what a sight!
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Audrey2Katrina
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Thanks for doing that research Extreme. That seems like a reasonable conclusion.
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Everyone else,
Nature is always going to do whatever it wants to. But we can observe basic weather patterns just like we can observe anything else. With long-term data, we learn that in many cases of x, y happens. Or almost y. Or sometimes y and sometimes z. But eventually certain things lead to other things. With weather, like most things in science, you have some predictability (local, national, regional, etc.) and you have plenty of wildcards. For instance, we know that in certain summer and fall patterns, the south or east or north or midwest might have a better chance of snow. Or possibly California will have an increased risk of a very rainy season and mudslides. With hurricanes, we know that in El Nino years, there are generally less hurricanes than Neutral and La Nina years. And we know about many other factors (QBO, wind speed and direction, Atlantic sea surface temperatures, SOI, NAO, etc. etc. etc.) play into general seasonal parameters as well as storm-specific likelihoods.
This isn't exact science we're talking about, it's general. We're just not that sophisticated yet nor do we have enough data about anomalous years such as 2005 (= wildcard). So let's wait and see. I've been maintaining for 3 years that we are probably on the cusp fo understanding general seasonal conditions and how they are more likely to play out taking the next step beyond the research done by CSU and Dr. Gray since the 1970's in predicting quantity. Give it time, and eventually, we should be able to identify more likely threat areas based on similarities. We'll never be perfect, but even something that might seem insignificant such as a 30% improvement in seasonal forecasts could be invaluable. JMO
Steve
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Everyone else,
Nature is always going to do whatever it wants to. But we can observe basic weather patterns just like we can observe anything else. With long-term data, we learn that in many cases of x, y happens. Or almost y. Or sometimes y and sometimes z. But eventually certain things lead to other things. With weather, like most things in science, you have some predictability (local, national, regional, etc.) and you have plenty of wildcards. For instance, we know that in certain summer and fall patterns, the south or east or north or midwest might have a better chance of snow. Or possibly California will have an increased risk of a very rainy season and mudslides. With hurricanes, we know that in El Nino years, there are generally less hurricanes than Neutral and La Nina years. And we know about many other factors (QBO, wind speed and direction, Atlantic sea surface temperatures, SOI, NAO, etc. etc. etc.) play into general seasonal parameters as well as storm-specific likelihoods.
This isn't exact science we're talking about, it's general. We're just not that sophisticated yet nor do we have enough data about anomalous years such as 2005 (= wildcard). So let's wait and see. I've been maintaining for 3 years that we are probably on the cusp fo understanding general seasonal conditions and how they are more likely to play out taking the next step beyond the research done by CSU and Dr. Gray since the 1970's in predicting quantity. Give it time, and eventually, we should be able to identify more likely threat areas based on similarities. We'll never be perfect, but even something that might seem insignificant such as a 30% improvement in seasonal forecasts could be invaluable. JMO
Steve
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southerngale
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Here's the UCF press release for their 2005 forecast
They gave Cape Hatteras, Miami Beach, and Naples the highest probabilities last year.
A MOMENT LATER: The 2006 University of Central Florida press release
They gave Cape Hatteras, Miami Beach, and Naples the highest probabilities last year.
A MOMENT LATER: The 2006 University of Central Florida press release
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I don't ever listen to these forecasts. In 1992, was Homestead on the high target list? In 2004, was it Pensacola? And what about the MGC and NOLA in 2005?
It makes more sense just to say that the east coast or the GOM has a higher risk of landfalls than the other. They can't accurately pinpoint the landfall of a hurricane 3 days out, do you really think they can accurately predict where they are going before the storms have even formed?
It makes more sense just to say that the east coast or the GOM has a higher risk of landfalls than the other. They can't accurately pinpoint the landfall of a hurricane 3 days out, do you really think they can accurately predict where they are going before the storms have even formed?
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cajungal
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I think it is all a bunch of media hype. Sure, New Orleans is the most vunerable city in the nation for hurricanes. New Orleans always gets a lot of media attention when it comes to storms because of its vunerablility. It took 40 years for a major hurricane to come that close to New Orleans. Betsy was the last one before Katrina. And what are the odds of the same thing happening 2 years in a row? I think people should be prepared no matter where they live on the gulf coast or east coast. But, not to be in a state of panic. We do not know with 100% certainity what is going to happen this season.
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crabbyhermit
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Yeah you right, cajungal. I have to keep myself from getting in a panic lots lately. Sometimes I look around at my city and feel like everything is transient, like, you better not care too much or get too attached to this or that, if it's all going to be blown away or flooded, maybe this season. LIke you've been burned in a bad love affair and are afraid to commit again! lol But you have to make yourself not think that way if you're gonna stay here, and i ain't going anywhere. It's a surreal thing, living in NOLA right now, and I dont' think people in parts of the country not prone to total destruction by a hurricane can really get that. 
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vbhoutex
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cajungal wrote:I think it is all a bunch of media hype. Sure, New Orleans is the most vunerable city in the nation for hurricanes. New Orleans always gets a lot of media attention when it comes to storms because of its vunerablility. It took 40 years for a major hurricane to come that close to New Orleans. Betsy was the last one before Katrina. And what are the odds of the same thing happening 2 years in a row? I think people should be prepared no matter where they live on the gulf coast or east coast. But, not to be in a state of panic. We do not know with 100% certainity what is going to happen this season.
I agree with the sentiments of everyone should be prepared no matter what, no matter where they are and definitely not be in a state of panic or even anticipating a hurricane. However ask the people who live in the Pensacola area or on the East coast of Florida about whether a hurricane might affect your area 2 years in a row or in the case of the East coast of FL in the same year at the same place for landfall.
Past that I think the original article is irresponsible. No one can predict for sure, even using patterns and climatology, that a certain area will be hit or is necessarily at a higher risk than other areas of a hit by a major cane. As much as the forecasting of canes has improved over the years we still aren't anywhere near being able to make blanket statements like that with any certainty.
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