How can they predict Landfall ?

[bucman1]

You know what makes me ill, people coming out and saying watch out Texas, look out New England,Fla west coast no prblem.

All of us who track these storms know-no synoptics stay the same day in and day out and one itty bitty change can be the difference beteen a sorm going in the gulf or across The florida pennisula.

Thoughts?

[skysummit]

Thoughts??? I just ignore those forecasts. They mean absolutely nothing in my book.

[Scorpion]

Mainly climatology.

[Rainband]

They are presenting what could happen given information they collect. We shouldn't let our guard down. They are only guesses. Educated guesses but still guesses I think the most important thing to remember is everyone from maine to texas needs to be ready this season and every season. Mother nature tends to have a mind of her own.

[Stratusxpeye]

They cant predict 100% and things do change. Exactly as stated above they are educated guesses. Same as the may number of storm prediction. last year it was 12-15 (not 100% sure but around those numbers) and we had 28! So they could say texas.texas.texas.texas and than norther east coast of us could get slammed. You just don't know exactly whats going to happean. Everyone be prepared.

[cajungal]

Nobody can point out a certain landmass with certainty to say they will get hit. It all depends on where the storm is and what the steering currents are at that time. If anything makes it in the Gulf of Mexico, then someone has to get hit. It is surrounded by land masses.

[Extremeweatherguy]

they can't tell you exactly what is going to happen, but based on the forecasted upper-level steering current patterns they can have a pretty good idea.

[hcane27]

Nobody can point out a certain landmass with certainty to say they will get hit. It all depends on where the storm is and what the steering currents are at that time. If anything makes it in the Gulf of Mexico, then someone has to get hit. It is surrounded by land masses.

Actually, that is not correct ....

Henri - 1979 .... landfall was never made anywhere along the Gulf Coast
Alberto - 1982 ... landfall was never made anywhere along the Gulf Coast
Edouard - 1984 ... again .. no landfall

[Extremeweatherguy]

Nobody can point out a certain landmass with certainty to say they will get hit. It all depends on where the storm is and what the steering currents are at that time. If anything makes it in the Gulf of Mexico, then someone has to get hit. It is surrounded by land masses.

Actually, that is not correct ....

Henri - 1979 .... landfall was never made anywhere along the Gulf Coast
Alberto - 1982 ... landfall was never made anywhere along the Gulf Coast
Edouard - 1984 ... again .. no landfall

more commonly than not, however, they will make landfall (especially if at major hurricane strength). The only real reason they would not make landfall is if they escaped south of Florida or through the Yucatan channel, or if they dissipated.

[Rainband]

You know what makes me ill, people coming out and saying watch out Texas, look out New England,Fla west coast no prblem.

All of us who track these storms know-no synoptics stay the same day in and day out and one itty bitty change can be the difference beteen a sorm going in the gulf or across The florida pennisula.

Thoughts?

U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 64% (average for last century is 31%)

That is including the entire pennisula. No one said the west coast is safe. We are just safer than some I for one am happy about that

[HurricaneHunter914]

Everyone on the U.S East coast is at risk to get hit, but some people make exact predictions because:
1. The area was probably hit repeatingly.
2. The high is probably positioned into an place which makes that area is at risk.
3. That person has a very strong feeling about it.
4. It's just -removed- and should be ignored.

[Javlin]

They are presenting what could happen given information they collect. We shouldn't let our guard down. They are only guesses. Educated guesses but still guesses I think the most important thing to remember is everyone from maine to texas needs to be ready this season and every season. Mother nature tends to have a mind of her own.

Someone should tell this to GW folks with 20-30yrs of research.

[wxmann_91]

Climatology mixed in with analogs and forecasted teleconnection indexes.

[wxman57]

Predicting an exact landfall for the upcoming season is not possible. But we can look back at climatology and determine that the current pattern of Atlantic and Pacific SSTs is very similar to what developed from the 1940s through the 1960s. During that 25-year period, Florida was hit by 12 major hurricanes and major hurricanes ravaged the Carolinas. When the Atlantic was in a cool regime (1900-1925 and 1970-1994), Florida was hit by a total of only 5 major hurricanes in 50 years and the Carolinas were not hit by a single major hurricane.

Knowing that, we can say that given the current pattern of Atlantic and Pacific SSTs, and acknowledging that SSTs can contribute to the trof/ridge locations across the U.S. and Atlantic Basin, the east U.S. coast from Florida through the Carolinas is at a significantly enhanced risk of a landfalling major hurricane in 2006 and possibly for the next 10-15 years. There's a much lower correlation with Gulf of Mexico activity, however. But there is a slight increase in landfalling major hurricanes in the NW Gulf (TX/LA) in the current pattern.

[CHRISTY]

Predicting an exact landfall for the upcoming season is not possible. But we can look back at climatology and determine that the current pattern of Atlantic and Pacific SSTs is very similar to what developed from the 1940s through the 1960s. During that 25-year period, Florida was hit by 12 major hurricanes and major hurricanes ravaged the Carolinas. When the Atlantic was in a cool regime (1900-1925 and 1970-1994), Florida was hit by a total of only 5 major hurricanes in 50 years and the Carolinas were not hit by a single major hurricane.

Knowing that, we can say that given the current pattern of Atlantic and Pacific SSTs, and acknowledging that SSTs can contribute to the trof/ridge locations across the U.S. and Atlantic Basin, the east U.S. coast from Florida through the Carolinas is at a significantly enhanced risk of a landfalling major hurricane in 2006 and possibly for the next 10-15 years. There's a much lower correlation with Gulf of Mexico activity, however. But there is a slight increase in landfalling major hurricanes in the NW Gulf (TX/LA) in the current pattern.

That is quiet alarming for us to here in florida!thanks for that info.

[EDR1222]

Predicting an exact landfall for the upcoming season is not possible. But we can look back at climatology and determine that the current pattern of Atlantic and Pacific SSTs is very similar to what developed from the 1940s through the 1960s. During that 25-year period, Florida was hit by 12 major hurricanes and major hurricanes ravaged the Carolinas. When the Atlantic was in a cool regime (1900-1925 and 1970-1994), Florida was hit by a total of only 5 major hurricanes in 50 years and the Carolinas were not hit by a single major hurricane.

Knowing that, we can say that given the current pattern of Atlantic and Pacific SSTs, and acknowledging that SSTs can contribute to the trof/ridge locations across the U.S. and Atlantic Basin, the east U.S. coast from Florida through the Carolinas is at a significantly enhanced risk of a landfalling major hurricane in 2006 and possibly for the next 10-15 years. There's a much lower correlation with Gulf of Mexico activity, however. But there is a slight increase in landfalling major hurricanes in the NW Gulf (TX/LA) in the current pattern.

Interesting information. I remember your discussion after the 2003 season where you were talking about some of these factors and how it looked as if things were beginning to set up exactly as you said. Unfortunately, I think you were right on the mark, because in 2004, Florida's luck ran out and with more storms possibly affecting or coming close to Florida, once they turn north, NC is right in the way.

[Jim Cantore]

How can they predict Landfall ?

they cant

[Regit]

When the Atlantic was in a cool regime (1900-1925 and 1970-1994), Florida was hit by a total of only 5 major hurricanes in 50 years and the Carolinas were not hit by a single major hurricane.

Just to be nitpicky, the Carolinas were hit by 1 major (Hugo, '89).

[wxman57]

When the Atlantic was in a cool regime (1900-1925 and 1970-1994), Florida was hit by a total of only 5 major hurricanes in 50 years and the Carolinas were not hit by a single major hurricane.

Just to be nitpicky, the Carolinas were hit by 1 major (Hugo, '89).

You are correct. But check out the activity between 1944 and 1969 in the Carolinas.

[Jim Cantore]

Dont forget 1996-1999