New Orleans Seen AS Top Target This Season -News Article

[canegrl04]

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsartic ... rss&rpc=22

sorry.The link is at Drudge http://www.drudgereport.com

[Stormcenter]

Link doesn't work.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the article won't open.

[Steve]

Ooof. I haven't heard of Watson and Johnson, so I don't know what their track record is, if any. We really don't need another hurricane this year - especially considering the number of people living in FEMA trailers, but it would be nice to see if the greater infrastructure of levees, pumps and such work yet.

Steve

[crabbyhermit]

OMG! I just read the article linked from Drudge. I would really like some of our resident experts to comment on this. I've never heard of these guys either, but that's not sayin much....

[Extremeweatherguy]

this article is so wrong it is not even funny! There are many higher risk areas this year than New Orleans (According to Dr. Gray)! For instance..the Texas coast this year has a 52% chance of a hurricane and a 1 in 4 chance of a major hurricane..MUCH higher than Louisiana's threat! Also..what is this computer model they are talking about? who are these people they are interviewing? I mean this article has so many holes and mistakes, I would not give it much credibility.

Here are a few specific things I was looking at:

ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) - New Orleans, still down and out from last year's assault by Hurricane Katrina, is the U.S. city most likely to be struck by hurricane force winds during the 2006 storm season, a researcher said on Wednesday.

The forecast gives New Orleans a nearly 30 percent chance of being hit by a hurricane and a one in 10 chance the storm will be a Category 3 or stronger, meaning sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km per hour), said Chuck Watson of Kinetic Analysis Corp., Savannah, Georgia a risk assessment firm.

Question #1 - who is this "researcher"...is it Chuck Watson; the same guy from below?

Question #2 - "The forecast"??? Which forecast is the writter referring to?

Question #3 - "Kinetic Analysis Corp." What? I have never even heard of this corporation. why would they have better knowledge of what is going to happen this season than someone like Dr. Gray?

Watson and Johnson said a weak La Nina weather condition and warmer-than-normal Gulf of Mexico water temperatures were contributing factors. U.S. government weather experts say the La Nina phenomenon in place earlier this year has dissipated and should not be a factor during the hurricane season.

^^look...this paragraph even shows that these guys don't agree that La Nina is gone (when it obviously is). I mean if they don't even know that, then how will their forecast be accurate?^^

Of 28 coastal cities evaluated under the forecast model, New Orleans ranked top with a 29.3 percent chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds in the storm season that begins officially on June 1.


Other top candidates include Mobile, Alabama, with a 22 percent chance of being buffeted by hurricane-force winds, and the Florida cities of Key West and Pensacola, which both have a 20 percent chance.

West Palm Beach, Florida, which suffered severe damage during last year's Hurricane Wilma, came in just after Key West and Pensacola with a 19 percent chance of being struck yet again by hurricane-force winds.

^^looks like they just picked a lot of cities from last year..threw in some percentages..and said they are the top targets again.^^

[Steve]

>>^^look...this paragraph even shows that these guys don't agree that La Nina is gone (when it obviously is). I mean if they don't even know that, then how will their forecast be accurate?^^

Yeah, but La Nina in the eastern zones is still in effect as of the last SSTA map I saw. I miss the OTIS daily updates that we used to be able to get.

As for as you bolding the whole thing and saying it's completely wrong or whatever, let's wait to see if their fruit bears merit or if it turns out to be another bogus forecast. Would you have been hyped and p.o.'d if he had targeted South or Southeast Texas as a primary target.

Otherwise, I don't disagree with you. I'd like to know if they have any sort of track record or verification on any prior information they've put out in years gone by.

Steve

[Extremeweatherguy]

After doing some more research, I think all this really is is that the Kinetic Analysis Corp. ran a model of where the storms would go if a certain pattern was in place, and the main targets were the areas listed in their story. This exact pattern can have many variables, however, so the pattern they used in this run of the model may not be the pattern we actually see this season. I think what happened though, is that the media picked up on this...spun it into a "forecast", and tried to make it sound like they were forecasting hurricanes to hit the Gulf coast and Florida once again. In reality, I think this was more of a simulation designed to give companies along the Gulf (and in the Gulf), which are specifically oil companies, a better idea of what kind of losses they may expect to see this year. I do not think this is actually a "forecast" like those issued by Dr. Gray or NOAA. I could still be wrong, however, so if someone has more information please feel free to add onto or change what I have said.

[stormtruth]

We have seen an awful lot of storms targeting the central gulf coast lately. The trend is your friend -- or your enemy it would seem in this case -- if you live along that part of the Gulf Coast.

[southerngale]

I know many forecasters use climatology to target certain areas, but like we saw last year...sometimes Mother Nature has no interest in climatology.

I'll just watch each system as it develops and hope and pray it stays clear of where I live.

[jasons2k]

After doing some more research, I think all this really is is that the Kinetic Analysis Corp. ran a model of where the storms would go if a certain pattern was in place, and the main targets were the areas listed in their story. This exact pattern can have many variables, however, so the pattern they used in this run of the model may not be the pattern we actually see this season. I think what happened though, is that the media picked up on this...spun it into a "forecast", and tried to make it sound like they were forecasting hurricanes to hit the Gulf coast and Florida once again. In reality, I think this was more of a simulation designed to give companies along the Gulf (and in the Gulf), which are specifically oil companies, a better idea of what kind of losses they may expect to see this year. I do not think this is actually a "forecast" like those issued by Dr. Gray or NOAA. I could still be wrong, however, so if someone has more information please feel free to add onto or change what I have said.

That would not surpise me. The problem is that it equates to "crying wolf" by the media just to generate headlines.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

I don't know if this would be considered a legitimate point, but...

Consider the source. It's Drudge.

[southerngale]

I don't know if this would be considered a legitimate point, but...

Consider the source. It's Drudge.

Actually, the source is Reuters. Most of the stuff on Drudge links to other sources.

[wxmann_91]

There is absolutely NO way we can predict a single city most at target. I'm not reading the article, it's not worth my time.

[Jack8631]

This is all statistical analysis. The folks involved are in risk assessment and statistics . From the article:

"Given the state of the infrastructure down there and the levees, gosh, that's just not good news. But that's what the climate signals look like," Watson said.

I feel that is a bold statement (no pun intended) by an individual that is not a member of the professional meteorological society. However..

Watson and Johnson have published a number of research papers on storm and wind damage modeling.

Like Steve, I will give them the benefit of the doubt and hope they are wrong.

[wxmann_91]

Like Steve, I will give them the benefit of the doubt and hope they are wrong.

They are wrong. There is no single city that is "top target" this cane season.

[Jack8631]

Like Steve, I will give them the benefit of the doubt and hope they are wrong.

They are wrong. There is no single city that is "top target" this cane season.

Oh, I agree. It is difficult enough for highly trained professionals to forecast a landfall five days out on an existing system. Trying to pinpoint a "target" in late May seems like crystal ball stuff to me..but there is risk assessment, and that appears to be what these guys do. They really should leave the technical weather details out of their releases, and focus on the percentages.

[george_r_1961]

I know many forecasters use climatology to target certain areas, but like we saw last year...sometimes Mother Nature has no interest in climatology.
I'll just watch each system as it develops and hope and pray it stays clear of where I live.

Kelly that is so right. The past 2 seasons have broken all the rules. Only time will tell what this year will bring.

[Weatherfreak000]

Perosnally I think it's nothing short of ignorant for anyone to say any area has a higher chance then anywhere else even the SPANISH COAST is a threat for a tropical system.


Granted yes Florida and the East Coast are such FEARED targets blah blah blah, it's irrlevent because right now it's like we're not even into Week One of the NFL.


Everyone is still 0 for 0. And that's all that's important.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Only 1 week left in the preseason (less by now), and frankly, I'm hoping for an uneventful season.... for a "pleasant" change!

A2K