91E invest at EPAC,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#21 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed May 24, 2006 2:17 pm

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:will a tropical storm watch be issued if it becomes a tropical depression?????

Yes, most likely.

Epsilon_Fan · #22 Postby **Epsilon_Fan** » Wed May 24, 2006 2:59 pm

it seems to be holding its own, if anything...

I just realized I went up to a tropical low... lol

HurricaneHunter914 · #23 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed May 24, 2006 3:21 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

VERY, VERY, deep convection!

#24 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed May 24, 2006 3:33 pm

Overall, the system's organization hasn't increased.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #25 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed May 24, 2006 4:44 pm

Interesting thank god it has not formed :roll:

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #26 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed May 24, 2006 4:52 pm

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241659
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT WED MAY 24 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER... SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST OR
NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB

#27 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed May 24, 2006 5:48 pm

ABPZ20 KNHC 242231
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0400 PM PDT WED MAY 24 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE ELONGATED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION TODAY. HOWEVER... SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

$$

#28 Postby **tailgater** » Wed May 24, 2006 8:59 pm

Looking a little better this even, I think if it breaks loose from the ITZ it have a better chance.

CHRISTY · #29 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 24, 2006 10:02 pm

Here are some spaghetti models for 91E

NONAME · #30 Postby **NONAME** » Thu May 25, 2006 5:43 am

Can you give me the link to that map plz Christy thank ive been looking for one.

James · #31 Postby **James** » Thu May 25, 2006 6:05 am

Hmm, it's not looking all that bad this morning, but it has a long way to go yet. Whatever the case it looks a little less transient at the moment.

CHRISTY · #32 Postby **CHRISTY** » Thu May 25, 2006 6:22 am

Looking a little better this morning...

#33 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu May 25, 2006 6:29 am

The system looks a little more concentrated. If convection increases and does so the overall organization, we may have a depression in a few days.

Aquawind · #34 Postby **Aquawind** » Thu May 25, 2006 6:47 am

Worthy of a look at the visable loop later this morning. The ole color enhanced IR can sure make it look good but were looking for a defined center for TC genesis and visable will give us a much better view to see that.

#35 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu May 25, 2006 9:08 am

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP912006) ON 20060525 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060525 1200 060526 0000 060526 1200 060527 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.3N 99.0W 12.3N 99.7W 13.3N 100.3W 14.4N 100.7W
BAMM 11.3N 99.0W 12.1N 100.2W 12.7N 101.0W 13.3N 101.6W
LBAR 11.3N 99.0W 12.3N 100.0W 13.7N 100.7W 15.6N 101.3W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 34KTS 46KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 34KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060527 1200 060528 1200 060529 1200 060530 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.2N 101.0W 16.5N 100.8W 16.5N 101.8W 16.3N 103.7W
BAMM 13.7N 102.2W 14.7N 103.3W 14.5N 105.4W 14.2N 108.3W
LBAR 17.5N 101.8W 22.1N 101.6W 25.2N 100.1W 25.6N 97.5W
SHIP 58KTS 71KTS 74KTS 70KTS
DSHP 58KTS 71KTS 74KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 99.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 10.9N LONM12 = 98.1W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 97.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

12:00z Model run.Ship intensity has it to hurricane status in 72 hours.

#36 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu May 25, 2006 9:13 am

According to how it's looking at this moment, it will neeed divine intervention to do so, nevertheless, it has the opportunity to develop over the next few days. GFS is forecasting a tropical storm in 24 hrs. That's tooooooooooooo sooooooooooooooon!!!

WELCOME TO THE WAIT & SEE GAME!

hurricanefloyd5 · #37 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Thu May 25, 2006 9:48 am

a tropical depression formed yet or not yet??????????????

Scorpion · #38 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu May 25, 2006 9:52 am

Wow things have changed quickly! We were writing this thing off last night. Can't believe its this time of year again.

Aquawind · #39 Postby **Aquawind** » Thu May 25, 2006 10:46 am

Good convection near ~ 10.5N ~102W still no center or single circulation visable.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

#40 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu May 25, 2006 11:11 am

Scorpion wrote:Wow things have changed quickly! We were writing this thing off last night. Can't believe its this time of year again.

There hasn't been a significant change whatsoever. The system is still very poorly organized and development is not expected anytime soon.

91E invest at EPAC,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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