Swirl over Yucatan

boca · #41 Postby **boca** » Tue May 23, 2006 8:09 am

It looks like the ULL in the SW Gulf is either strengthening some or its developing more at the mid levels because convection is starting to develop around the center.

Clint_TX · #42 Postby **Clint_TX** » Tue May 23, 2006 8:57 am

#43 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Tue May 23, 2006 9:01 am

boca wrote:It looks like the ULL in the SW Gulf is either strengthening some or its developing more at the mid levels because convection is starting to develop around the center.

Could be what the N.O. NWS is referring to in their morning discussion:

...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH COMING UP FROM THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN. SOME ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED AS THESE SYSTEMS INTERACT DUE TO A HIGHLY DIFLUENT PATTERN SETTING UP AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW.

boca · #44 Postby **boca** » Tue May 23, 2006 9:11 am

Life is definetely rich something to watch.

Trey · #45 Postby **Trey** » Tue May 23, 2006 9:15 am

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL

FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AS MAIN FEATURES ARE NOW BEING MEASURED BY SATELLITE
AND UPPER AIR NETWORK OVER THE UNITED STATES. THE THREE MAIN
FEATURES ARE
1) A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER UTAH
2) A MID-CONTINENTAL 500 MB HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES
3) WEAK TO MODERATE 500 MB UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TAPPING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN.

THE MOST UNCERTAIN OF THESE FEATURES IS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO ITS POSITION OVER A DATA SPARSE REGION.

IT IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE UPPER GULF LOW...
NAM AND GFS SOLUTION STILL QUITE DIFFERENT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREFER TO LEAVE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND CHANCE POPS FOR THE ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AROUND TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

IF GFS AND NAM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME COHERENCE AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WE MAY HAVE TO ADJUST POPS UPWARD.

Looks like some rain is on its way

LaBreeze · #46 Postby **LaBreeze** » Tue May 23, 2006 9:19 am

Rain for who?

boca · #47 Postby **boca** » Tue May 23, 2006 9:22 am

West Central Florida will get the rain since the NWS Tampa Bay Ruskin is forecasting it. Please spread out the Rain.

Extremeweatherguy · #48 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue May 23, 2006 9:29 am

the ULL is looking much better this morning and seems to have gone almost stationary...may be even moving slightly NNW. There also seems to be some convection firing around the low, so it may be trying to work into the mid or lower levels. Certainly more interesting today, but I would still say it only has a 5-10% chance of development. Anything is possible though, because we are now only about 7-8 days away from Hurricane season.

Extremeweatherguy · #49 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue May 23, 2006 9:32 am

looking at the "HDW-mid" section of the NHC satellite loop for the Gulf..this system has now worked down to the mid levels. The winds are now being influenced by this system in the mid AND upper levels.

check out how good this thing looks on water vapor: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

boca · #50 Postby **boca** » Tue May 23, 2006 9:34 am

Extreme thats what I said in a previous post regarding the ULL working its way down to the mid levels. Its not weakening like the discuusion in Key West states.

.SHORT TERM UPDATE (TODAY)...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...LATEST
AVAILABLE...(0600Z) RUN OF THE NAM AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
INDICATIONS THAT THE LARGE UPPER LOW TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST WILL
BECOME LESS-DEFINED BY THE END OF THE DAY...AS 200 MB UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WILL GRADUALLY FADE. ANY VORTICITY LOBES AROUND THE EAST
SIDE WILL DO LITTLE TO ENHANCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TODAY OVER THE
KEYS.

Extremeweatherguy · #51 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue May 23, 2006 9:42 am

Even if nothing comes of this system...it certainly should be a warning sign that things may be getting better for tropical development in the region, and according to Joe B., the Gulf should become favorable for development over the next 2-3 weeks, and an early season June storm is likely.

boca · #52 Postby **boca** » Tue May 23, 2006 9:43 am

The ULL is slowly moving eastward because you can see the drier air around the moisture latent clouds moving east. Really hard to tell.

#53 Postby **hiflyer** » Tue May 23, 2006 9:53 am

aye laddie it does look like a little ol swirl on the vapor loops as of 1030edt but all the precip is n side or going away to the e and ne with prevail winds....which is rain for cental and n florida..yeah....but lil ol us in se fl may get left out on precip. ouch. w side of the swirl shows nothing but drier air pushing down from Texas....now just a little more to the east and sst's go up 2 degrees...right where the water vapor shows more liquid.

#54 Postby **skysummit** » Tue May 23, 2006 9:54 am

The only thing tropical about this is that it's in the Gulf of Mexico.

#55 Postby **feederband** » Tue May 23, 2006 9:57 am

skysummit wrote:The only thing tropical about this is that it's in the Gulf of Mexico.

beachbum_al · #56 Postby **beachbum_al** » Tue May 23, 2006 9:14 pm

All I see is a four letter word that is much needed around the Gulf Coast

RAIN

Patrick99 · #57 Postby **Patrick99** » Wed May 24, 2006 7:31 am

They said that upper level low was going to lose its identity, and they weren't kidding. I can't even pick it out on water vapor this morning.

HurricaneHunter914 · #58 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed May 24, 2006 7:40 am

Looks like nothing now.

Stratusxpeye · #59 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Wed May 24, 2006 8:09 am

Nothings left of the swirl. No rain came out of it for me either. Just upper level moisture.

#60 Postby **skysummit** » Wed May 24, 2006 8:20 am

Geeez....I thought we'd at least get a few drops out of this up here. We got a little rain yesterday, but that was because of a summer pop. Talk about a stingy ULL!

Swirl over Yucatan

Who is online