Any scientific reason or just Luck?

[bucman1]

I hear lots of people say the Tampa/ St.pete area doesn't get major threats due to their location?

I know that Charlie almost hit there but is their meteorogical reasoning for this or just flat out luck?

[Camille_2_Katrina]

It's tucked in pretty tight in the corner there.
Kind of like the Jacksonville area...

It can and does happen... but it's rare.
Very rare for a major to actually make landfall there.

If your gonna build on the Gulf... that area is your best
bet. There is some science to it.

that DOESN'T mean to let your guard down!
KEEP YOUR GUARD UP!

[bucman1]

what if it comes ashorein sarasota and moves due north for example?

[Camille_2_Katrina]

That can and has happened.... but not likely...

[bucman1]

why is that not likely?(not being argumentive)

[jasons2k]

The worst case for Tampa would be a landfall on Pinellas or Pasco county, which would send the surge into the bays, similiar to the 1921 storm. A scenario like Donna or Charley would not be as severe, at least in terms of the surge.

[vbhoutex]

It's tucked in pretty tight in the corner there.
Kind of like the Jacksonville area...

It can and does happen... but it's rare.
Very rare for a major to actually make landfall there.

If your gonna build on the Gulf... that area is your best
bet. There is some science to it.

that DOESN'T mean to let your guard down!
KEEP YOUR GUARD UP!

What is the science to it? Please explain further.

[Camille_2_Katrina]

I've seem posts here about it in the past.
I'm not the expert... but something along the lines
of trajectery and the typical ridging in the area.

again... The area HAS been hit by Majors in the past...
just very rare. I can remember seeing a map last year
showing the majors in the GOM... 2 or 3 with direct hits
in that Area... plenty of close calls though. Elaina and Charlie
to mention a few.

All you can do is keep your guard up... and hope for the best.

[jdray]

As Frances and Jeanne should have shown everyone in Florida, it does not take a direct hit to feel the effects.

2-3 days of TS force winds can do a lot of damage still.


Dont just worry about direct hits.

[Patrick99]

I don't really understand why a Tampa/St. Pete hit is so much less likely than a Ft. Myers to Sarasota hit. It's not that far away.

[Camille_2_Katrina]

I don't really understand why a Tampa/St. Pete hit is so much less likely than a Ft. Myers to Sarasota hit. It's not that far away.

it is wierd... isn't it

[bucman1]

Thats my point-if Ft Myers/Naples can be hit often whre does the Tampa/St pete theory come from.

By the way-great discussion!!!

[Camille_2_Katrina]

i think it's kind of like a NASCAR track...
very very rarely do you see a car down
low on the back end of a curve... They come
in low... and swing high coming out of the turn.

Being in Tampa is like being low on the backside
curve at Daytona. (But Daytona is more likely
to be hit by a major )

[terstorm1012]

I heard that there is a Calusa Indian legend that states there's something in the ground that deflects major storms away from Tampa-Saint Pete.

I am not making this up. This is a story I picked up somewhere along the way. anyone else hear this story too?

[Camille_2_Katrina]

not I said the goose...

[wxmann_91]

A major hurricane into Tampa is difficult but not impossible. Like others have alluded to, it is sorta tucked in there. For max storm surge, a perfect track has to take place. Henri in 2003 is a good example. Otherwise, we need a shearing trough that brings a hurricane at an acute angle to create such a hurricane, and as evidenced with Charley, those types don't bring much surge.

[windycity]

i also heard about the indian tribe story,a old florida cracker said the tampa area is a indian burial graveyard. Who knows !!!

[Rainband]

i also heard about the indian tribe story,a old florida cracker said the tampa area is a indian burial graveyard. Who knows !!!

we have several. I really doubt that has much to do with it. Who knows though.

[jdray]

Big Bend area has tons of Indian Burial Grounds as well, doesnt seem to help them that much.

[Stratusxpeye]

It would take a late season cold front to swing the system towards tampa. Perfect example is charley. If the front would have been 3-5 hours later pinellas/clearwter would have had a direct hit and it would have rode up through jacksonville instead of orlando. My town wouldnt exist if this had happeaned as was forecast. I live just northeast in pasco county. The way tampa is stuck out in the middle of the state the storms dont really make it that far north before turning. And the way the states bends back east all the way down to the tip those cities are a lot more likely to see a major or a tropical system in general. My theory anyway.

Just thankful for charley turning sooner I had just bought my house 1 month prior to charley. I drove to ft myers and assisted down there as I felt guilty it should have been us. Sanibel use to be my familys weekend trip a few times a year but theres not much left we use to love there.