2005 Outlook Vs 2006 Outlook

[bzukajo]

I remember last year wondering if 2005 was going to be as bad as 2004...Never imagining just how much more sever it could actually be. That being said, I am once again wondering how bad 2006 will be compared to 2005. Now I see the official release of the hurricane outlook for 2006. For the life of me, I can not remember what the predictions were for 2005. Was it comparable?...did it say not as bad as 2004 but pretty active?

[Aquawind]

May Outlook's

2004

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... icane.html

NOAA’s 2004 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates a 50% probability of an above-normal hurricane season, a 40% probability of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season, according to a consensus of scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and the National Hurricane Center (NHC). See NOAA’s definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.

The outlook calls for 12-15 tropical storms, with 6-8 becoming hurricanes, and 2-4 of these becoming major hurricanes. These numbers reflect a predicted ACE index in the range of 100%-160% of the median, and indicate a likely continuation of above-normal activity that began in 1995.

2005
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... icane.html

NOAA’s 2005 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates a 70% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. This outlook is produced by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and National Hurricane Center (NHC). See NOAA’s definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.

The outlook calls for 12-15 tropical storms, with 7-9 becoming hurricanes, and 3-5 of these becoming major hurricanes. The likely range of ACE index is 120%-190% of the median. This prediction reflects a very likely continuation of above-normal activity that began in 1995.

2006
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... cane.shtml

NOAA’s 2006 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates an 80% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 15% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season. This outlook is produced by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), National Hurricane Center (NHC), and Hurricane Research Division (HRD). See NOAA’s definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.

The outlook calls for a very active 2006 season, with 13-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes. The likely range of the ACE index is 135%-205% of the median. This prediction indicates a continuation of above-normal activity that began in 1995. However, we do not currently expect a repeat of last year’s record season.

Busy Busy..

[Extremeweatherguy]

seems like an upward trend in prediction numbers each year.

[bzukajo]

Thank you..that is exactly what I was looking for. Very telling. At least we do not have a named storm before the season starts.

[Regit]

I've heard several people (including some in the forum) say "Oh 2005 was an anomaly and 2006 won't be even close." I've even heard some say 2005 will never been beat.

I find this amazing coming from anyone who lived through 2005. First off, the statements that 2005 will never be beat are ridiculous. Conditions for tropical formation in 2005 were not perfect. If you look far enough out into the future, then you eventually will find "perfect" conditions.

The second lesson should be in all the assurances we heard in 2005.
-Katrina won't be a Cat 5.
-Rita will not be a Cat. 5. The waters are too cool from Katrina.
-Wilma's pressure can't get below 888.
-In October: The season is definitely over.
-In November: The season really is over this time.
-In December: Ok, I'm serious! It's over.


Those "season over" comments really got under my skin last year. I was wondering how many times people had to be wrong before they learned a lesson. But, there is a similar feeling among many that just because some event is given a ranking of #1, that it won't be beat (Lowest pressure, busiest season, highest winds). A lot of it probably has to do with the fact that when you think a certain event won't be the biggest or worst of history, you're probably right. However, also remember that most people are only giving their gut feeling, not a scientifically tested theory.

I personally guessed 22 storms for this year. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see 12, and I wouldn't be surprised to see 32. In weather, you need to be always prepared for unexpected events. These events could kill the season or put it in the fast lane.

[Evil Jeremy]

the lesson here: 2003, 2004, and 2005 were both worse then forecasted in May. Its common sense that this season will end up more like Dr. Grey's current forecast.

[Stratusxpeye]

Lets just hope it's not more active this year than was last year. Trend def is upward. Very good job summarize the three seasonal outlooks. Good information. Thanks.

[Swimdude]

the lesson here: 2003, 2004, and 2005 were both worse then forecasted in May. Its common sense that this season will end up more like Dr. Grey's current forecast.

I'm glad someone pointed that out; it's certainly true.