Preview of Gray's steering pattern forecast... read

[MiamiensisWx]

I was watching Scarborough Country on MSNBC last night. Scarborough was having a special on the upcoming 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and he was making very many good points (unlike the media normally does). It was refreshing to hear him speak on many different fronts concerning the season coming. Suddenly, they showed a graphic that was forecasting the probabilities (both compared to average and overall) for all of the regions divided up along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coast this year. On the bottom left-hand corner of the screen, I noticed that it said this graphic was from Colorado State University. This was a preview of Dr. Gray's steering pattern forecast and what it will look like! Unfortunately, it didn't show much good news. Here is what I observed on the preview graphic of the upcoming steering pattern forecast...

Southeast Florida and North Carolina are considerably higher in probabilities than any of the other regions shown on the eastern U.S. coast. In fact, the graphic showed the New England region having a 15% probability, while the area from central Florida northward to South Carolina had a 5% to 10% probability. North Carolina and southeast Florida, on the other hand, had considerably higher probabilities on the graphic. On the graphic, North Carolina had a 56% to 58% probability, while southeast Florida had a high 36% to 38% probability! This must mean that strong Atlantic ridging is forecast by Gray, since southwest Florida had a lower probability than southeast Florida on the graphic.

Another thing I noticed is that the area hit by Rita (southeast Texas/southwest Louisiana) had a 48% probability on the graphic. Also, the area hit by Ivan and Dennis had a 26% to 28% probability on the graphic, with most of Louisiana/part of Mississippi at a lower risk. Overall, though, this is NOT good news for the Gulf coast.

This is what I observed. Now we have an idea of how Gray's steering forecast will be and look like.

What are your thoughts?

[terstorm1012]

My thoughts are I'll wait until I get to see it complete with the scientific analysis paper. Scarbourough is not one of the news magazine shows I watch, and he's not a scientist, he's a former Congressman, so he could have mis-construed some things.

[MiamiensisWx]

I know... I just wanted to let everyone know. Scarborough also made some good points last night.

[MiamiensisWx]

Hmm... I wonder why many don't seem to be interested in this...

[jasons2k]

Hey CapeVerde, thanks for the heads-up. Also, thanks for properly referring to our region as "Southeast Texas" (not NE TX)

Did you happen to catch where the 48% line stopped?

Question for anyone - didn't Dr. Gray, just last year, actually point out in his report that such regional forecasts were beyond our forecasting capability, almost as a message to those who were making such predictions? Just curious - seems odd in the very next year he'd make his own.

[fwbbreeze]

True Joe is not a scientist, but he is from Pensacola, FL and has seen his share of disaster regarding hurricanes.

fwbbreeze

[MiamiensisWx]

Hey CapeVerde, thanks for the heads-up. Also, thanks for properly referring to our region as "Southeast Texas" (not NE TX)

Did you happen to catch where the 48% line stopped?

Question for anyone - didn't Dr. Gray, just last year, actually point out in his report that such regional forecasts were beyond our forecasting capability, almost as a message to those who were making such predictions? Just curious - seems odd in the very next year he'd make his own.

Thanks! The 48% line went from southeast Texas to central Louisiana.

I think Gray did say that, but he and others are issuing their first steering pattern forecast and probabilities at the end of the month. I think this was a preview of it.

[cajungal]

We had a similar discussion at our Storm2k gathering at Red Fish grill in New Orleans. Almost the whole table agreed that a similar pattern to 2005 is also setting up this year. A lot agreed that the troughs probably won't dig deep enough again to pick these storms up. And already reached record highs of 90 degrees as early as April. Gulf is heating up quickly and we could see some homegrown systems. And if any storm crosses SE Florida, it is almost a certanity that it will get in the Gulf next. If anything crosses Ft. Lauderdale to the south, especially around the keys, look out Louisiana/MS coast! And you don't have to have a direct hit on your town to be majorly impacted. Rita hit the LA/Tx border. My town lies 200 miles to the east of the Texas border. But, areas south of Houma, some places that never, ever flooded were under water. Almost everyone in southern Terrebonne lost their homes from a storm that never got closer than 200 miles. And only saw tropical storm force winds. Pretty amazing. I talked to people who flew helicopters over the Louisiana coast. The gulf is not more than 10 miles south of Houma now they all say. Causing major concerns to the whole entire parishes of Terrebonne and Lafouche.

[Extremeweatherguy]

remember that 48% line is for a major hurricane...the percentages are much higher (according to Dr. Gray) for a TS or Cat. 1/2 hurricane. The typical percentage this region sees for a major landfall is 30% each year.

[hcane27]

Hey CapeVerde, thanks for the heads-up. Also, thanks for properly referring to our region as "Southeast Texas" (not NE TX)

Did you happen to catch where the 48% line stopped?

Question for anyone - didn't Dr. Gray, just last year, actually point out in his report that such regional forecasts were beyond our forecasting capability, almost as a message to those who were making such predictions? Just curious - seems odd in the very next year he'd make his own.

Yes he certainly did .... it seems as though either he has had an "epiphany" or the venerable Dr. Gray, et al, appear to be showing signs of agreeing that those who have been forecasting steering patterns in the past may just have hit on something, and he wants to be a part of it .....

[MiamiensisWx]

remember that 48% line is for a major hurricane...the percentages are much higher (according to Dr. Gray) for a TS or Cat. 1/2 hurricane. The typical percentage this region sees for a major landfall is 30% each year.

Really? What's the typical percentage for southeast Florida every year for a major?

[Rainband]

http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/welcome.html

[hurricanetrack]

Hey- I was on his show last year during Wilma. He was great to talk to. Lots of energy. Nice interview. Can't wait to see the update from Dr. Gray et al next week.

[Camille_2_Katrina]

This is right along the lines of what Joe B. was saying
at Accuweather a month ago...

[Opal storm]

Also, the area hit by Ivan and Dennis had a 26% to 28% probability on the graphic,

That doesn't sound too bad,maybe we'll get a break this year.But I'm still not letting my gaurd down.

[cajungal]

I went look on that link that Rainband provided. I live Terrebonne Parish and I am shaded in the orange. So, what does that mean? I don't understand those maps that well. If central Louisiana is at a 48% probablility that is still not encouraging news. Because I will still be on the east side of the storm. Any storm making landfall near Morgan City is worse case scenerio for us here. That is where Andrew made landfall and we got 100 mile plus winds.

[Extremeweatherguy]

On that interactive map you need to select the info. button on the upper right hand side and then (after selecting it) click on your county. A little info. box will then come up.

According to the map...here is what Harris Co., TX should see this year:

Probability of a TS strike: 85.4% (Average = 43.8%)
Probability of a hurricane strike: 56.8% (Average = 29.1%)
Probability of a major hurricane strike: 24.8% (Average = 12.7%)

WOW! What this means is that Dr. Gray thinks that Harris Co. has a VERY LIKELY chance of seeing at least a TS this season and a LIKELY chance of seeing at least a Cat. 1/2 hurricane. He also is predicting a 1 in 4 chance of a major hurricane hitting the area. These numbers are amazing and about 2 times the usual risk to the area. Based on this, I would say that Harris County has a decent chance of being hit hard this season!

[Rainband]

Mine are very low.

[Evil Jeremy]

And what does it say for SE Florida? Broward County, please.

[PTrackerLA]

My area has a more than double than average chance of getting hit by tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes this year...according to that map. There is SO much buzz about the hurricane season this year but in all honesty, there should be.