Hurricane mistakes

[Extremeweatherguy]

I was searching "Texas Hurricanes" on google, and I found this news website that listed major hurricanes to hit Texas over the last 100 years and I found MANY errors...see for yourself:

http://www.team4news.com/Global/story.asp?S=790657

A few that were obvious:

-Hurricane Alicia hit with 115mph winds NOT 130mph.

-Hurricane Allen did not have 185mph winds (or else the U.S. would have had four Cat. 5 landfalls instead of three).

[Camille_2_Katrina]

Allen did have 185 mph winds... but not at landfall...


http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at198001.asp

max winds 190?

[terstorm1012]

email 'em and let them know

[jasons2k]

That list translates to a major hit every 4.5 years on average. Translation: we are overdue.

[MiamiensisWx]

That list translates to a major hit every 4.5 years on average. Translation: we are overdue.

There is no such thing as "overdue". I agree, though, that time is likely against going much further along without a major strike.

[patsmsg]

That list translates to a major hit every 4.5 years on average. Translation: we are overdue.

There is no such thing as "overdue". I agree, though, that time is likely against going much further along without a major strike.

Every year is a new year. The probability of a major strike this year or next is in no way influenced by the outcome of previous years.

[wx247]

That list translates to a major hit every 4.5 years on average. Translation: we are overdue.

There is no such thing as "overdue". I agree, though, that time is likely against going much further along without a major strike.

I respectfully disagree. I do believe that you can be overdue for a storm. If climatology says that you get hit every 4.5 years and you haven't seen one in 7, climatology tends to say that you are overdue and that the chances of seeing a hit are higher than normal. Of course, only the pattern dictates if the area will actually get hit by a storm or hurricane.

On the flip side, you can receive more than you are climatogically due, however, usually things balance themselves out over time and things fall back in line.

[MiamiensisWx]

I respectfully disagree. I do believe that you can be overdue for a storm. If climatology says that you get hit every 4.5 years and you haven't seen one in 7, climatology tends to say that you are overdue and that the chances of seeing a hit are higher than normal. Of course, only the pattern dictates if the area will actually get hit by a storm or hurricane.

On the flip side, you can receive more than you are climatogically due, however, usually things balance themselves out over time and things fall back in line.

I don't think that's quite a matter of being due or not. I think it has to do with that you get hit eventually, and that current patterns strongly suggest that you will likely get hit some time in the nearing future. I think that is what it mainly is, not a question of being due or not. Sorry if I sound mean.

[jasons2k]

Folks, I think we're splitting hairs here. I think we all know just because we are "overdue" doesn't mean we're going to get hit this season. After all, we were overdue last year. Other places (like Tampa) are a lot more "overdue" than we are.

For me, it's just a reminder that good luck doesn't last forever.

[wx247]

You don't sound mean. I think you are, however, getting hung up on the wording. According to the dictionary due means, "Expecting or ready for something as part of a normal course or sequence". That is essentially what you are saying.

Overdue is defined as "Expected but not yet having come about". I don't see the problem with that wording. It is simply climatology.

[Air Force Met]

I was searching "Texas Hurricanes" on google, and I found this news website that listed major hurricanes to hit Texas over the last 100 years and I found MANY errors...see for yourself:

http://www.team4news.com/Global/story.asp?S=790657

A few that were obvious:

-Hurricane Alicia hit with 115mph winds NOT 130mph.

-Hurricane Allen did not have 185mph winds (or else the U.S. would have had four Cat. 5 landfalls instead of three).

I don't think they were talking about sustained winds. It is estimated that gusts were to 130 mph at landfall.

[Extremeweatherguy]

That list translates to a major hit every 4.5 years on average. Translation: we are overdue.

If you count Rita (which was a major hurricane), then really we are not overdue as a state. As for the Houston area locally though...YES we are overdue.

[jasons2k]

That list translates to a major hit every 4.5 years on average. Translation: we are overdue.

If you count Rita (which was a major hurricane), then really we are not overdue as a state. As for the Houston area locally though...YES we are overdue.

I know Kelly will crucify me for this, but I don't count Rita. "Between Sabine Pass and Johnson's Bayou" is technically a LA landfall. When splitting regions or states, you don't count landfalls twice; it's one or the other.

[GeneratorPower]

That list translates to a major hit every 4.5 years on average. Translation: we are overdue.

There is no such thing as "overdue". I agree, though, that time is likely against going much further along without a major strike.

I respectfully disagree. I do believe that you can be overdue for a storm. If climatology says that you get hit every 4.5 years and you haven't seen one in 7, climatology tends to say that you are overdue and that the chances of seeing a hit are higher than normal. Of course, only the pattern dictates if the area will actually get hit by a storm or hurricane.

On the flip side, you can receive more than you are climatogically due, however, usually things balance themselves out over time and things fall back in line.

See bold print above... this is completely incorrect. The chances are NOT higher than normal. They are exactly normal. The chances of getting hit in any particular season in your example is 22%. With your reasoning, you could also be underdue. Meaning, you've been hit five times in the last five years, so therefore the likelyhood of being hit again next year is lower. Nope. It's still 22%.

[Extremeweatherguy]

But those chances of being hit actually do change from season to season. Dr. Gray is calling for a 48% chance of a major landfall along the upper Texas coast this season. That 48% is up from the 30% chance during a normal/average year.

[Stratosphere747]

Where has Dr.Gray said that there is a 1 in 2 chance that a major will hit the Upper Texas Coast?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Where has Dr.Gray said that there is a 1 in 2 chance that a major will hit the Upper Texas Coast?

I think I had actually read the information wrong originally. I think the numbers are actually more like this for the area:

Chance of a TS hit on Texas - 85.4% (Highly likely)
Chance of a Hurricane hit on Texas - 56.8% (likely)
Chance of a Major Hurricane hit on Texas - 24.8% (1 in 4 chance)

These numbers are all about 2 times the normal long-term seasonal average for TX.

[Stratosphere747]

That makes a bit more sense, but IMO way off in respect to majors.

Since 1950, a good benchmark. There has been only 6 majors to hit the Texas coast, and the last two to hit, Allen & Alicia, were borderline at that.

So in 55yrs only six have hit. No matter what the cycle is, to have us at even a 1 in 4 chance is a bit "extreme."

[Extremeweatherguy]

That makes a bit more sense, but IMO way off in respect to majors.

Since 1950, a good benchmark. There has been only 6 majors to hit the Texas coast, and the last two to hit, Allen & Alicia, were borderline at that.

So in 55yrs only six have hit. No matter what the cycle is, to have us at even a 1 in 4 chance is a bit "extreme."

not really, if you divide 50-56 years by 6 (or 7 if you include Rita), you will find that TX averages a major hurricane every 8 to 9 years (thus a 1 in 8 or 1 in 9 chance each season). Having a 1 in 4 chance this season is pretty much just doubling the typical average per season, and looking at the dynamics that are coming into place...a 1 in 4 chance may even be too low when it is all said and done. I would not even be that surprised if TX saw two majors this year.

[Stratosphere747]

*makes note to consult his hurricane info*

Of course I forgot little respected Brett which hit in 99.

Well Extreme, I understand you tend to look for reasons why we may be under the gun so to speak *and this is not an attack*. Myself and living so close to the coast, I tend to look at the history and reasons why we are no more closer to being hit by a major, then we were last year and the year before that, and so on.

What it comes down to. A major landfall in Texas is somewhat of a rarity. Every 8 or so years in the last 55 tells you that. Throw in the fact that a major seems more prevalent to hit the Middle to Lower Texas coast, than the Upper Texas coast. Beaumont/Pt Arthur/Sabine Pass seem to be the target area for our neck of the woods, and I'm sure they will be just happy to take this year off.

If history is any indication, even after last year, once we get past Chris things would hopefully be in our favor.