Swirl over Yucatan

[N2DaTropics]

actually guys conditions are set to become somewhat a little more favorable in the days to come in the gulf of mexico.take a look at this map!

I certainly don't want to imply that I think that anything significant will form in the GOM, but the shear maps that I looked at earlier seem to indicate that shear will be less and less with each passing day in the GOM...with that being said, I still think it is a long shot at best for any type of formation, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a decent rain event affect portions of the Northern GOM Thurs - Sat....

[MGC]

This is just a TW interacting with an ULL.......MGC

[Extremeweatherguy]

Joe Bastardi does not even think anything will come of the current activity. He does, however, think that a better pattern for development may emerge this upcoming weekend or next week. He says that once this better pattern develops, the systems in the Gulf will need to be watched MUCH more closely. He also says that he has the feeling that the western Gulf will be more of a target than the eastern Gulf, but that he is not 100% sure yet. Basically: This system shouldn't develop, but a similar system 10-15 days down the road could.

[NONAME]

Ok You Blob Watchers I really Dont think anything will form out of this. Thats not even a surface low it a upperlevel low which for on thing is cold core not warm and From what i remeber Upperlevel low help cause windshear and kill hurricanes but if far enough away will help strenthing them.

[HURAKAN]

24hrs:


48 hrs:


It seems that the low pressure and its parent trough will move slowly toward Texas over the next few days.

[BayouVenteux]

It seems that the low pressure and its parent trough will move slowly toward Texas over the next few days.

Boy, lets hope! Getting SE Texas and much of Louisiana under the moisture fetch that could run up the eastern side of that ULL would be helpful in knocking back some of the effects of the moderate-to-severe drought conditions that were only temporarily relieved by the one or two storm systems that moved quickly through here at the end of April and first weekend in May.

[CHRISTY]

Guys there seems to be some type of spin of the yucatan pennisula?Take a look at this visible before it turns night time.

[ROCK]

This is just a TW interacting with an ULL.......MGC

exactly, ULL is providing lift, ventilation for the TW. Not really a big deal. Hopefully, it will bring rain to some parts FL that need it.

[CHRISTY]

This is just a TW interacting with an ULL.......MGC

exactly, ULL is providing lift, ventilation for the TW. Not really a big deal. Hopefully, it will bring rain to some parts FL that need it.

yea hopefully some needed for florida!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like a ull or a extratropical system. Also looks like a alot of shear...So development of a tropical cyclone looks pretty low.

Incase you are wondering where I been it will be awhile before I get the internet working again, Maybe by mid june.

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like a ull or a extratropical system. Also looks like a alot of shear...So development of a tropical cyclone looks pretty low.

Incase you are wondering where I been it will be awhile before I get the internet working again, Maybe by mid june.

Good luck on that...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

But that swirl coming off the northeastern tip of the yuctan just moving into the Gulf needs watching. Not saying it has a chance.

[Yankeegirl]

OK... i have a question... My computer crashed last year and I lost everything..all my bookmarks... There is a good site that has all the tracks for when an Invest pops up... I forgot the link, does anyone have it... Thx!

[Javlin]

Ok You Blob Watchers I really Dont think anything will form out of this. Thats not even a surface low it a upperlevel low which for on thing is cold core not warm and From what i remeber Upperlevel low help cause windshear and kill hurricanes but if far enough away will help strenthing them.

Correct;It depends what quadrant the ULL is placed as to whether it enhances outflow.Stevee from Metarie told me once the locations but it's been awhile.

[Epsilon_Fan]

I dont expect much

[boca]

Its still alittle early for development because of shear not water temp of 80 to 85°F. for this particular system.

[BayouVenteux]

OK... i have a question... My computer crashed last year and I lost everything..all my bookmarks... There is a good site that has all the tracks for when an Invest pops up... I forgot the link, does anyone have it... Thx!

Sorry to hear about your system crash YG...I can relate, as that happened to me too last year -- of all days, on the Sunday afternoon before Katrina hit.

Here's a couple of links to pages, that if I recall correctly, display model run "sprays" for Invests on up through full-fledged storms.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

[curtadams]

actually guys conditions are set to become somewhat a little more favorable in the days to come in the gulf of mexico.take a look at this map!

That map seems to have a very bullish coloring compared to the GOES change analysis http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html Roughly, I'd say the chances of cyclone formation outside of red and red-orange on the map you posted is very low as that would be shears > 20 mph. Forming cyclones are delicate beasts. Since yellow/green is more of a natural dividing line to the eye, it looks like cyclone formation is likely many more places than it actually is.

[Thunder44]

actually guys conditions are set to become somewhat a little more favorable in the days to come in the gulf of mexico.take a look at this map!

I wouldn't trust these maps very much. I don't think they have been very reliable in the past. This just looks like a ULL to me that will probably not develop at the surface.

[Clint_TX]

looks like its trying to do something