New York City Hurricane Storm Surge Maps

[zlaxier]

Not sure if anyone has posted this before, but I thought it was pretty cool.

Storm Surge maps for all the boroughs are at this link.

http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/emols/emols.html

Communities in Zone A, represented by the following color orange , face the highest risk of life-threatening storm surge inundation. Zone A includes all low-lying coastal areas and other areas that could experience storm surge in ANY hurricane (Category 1 and higher) that makes landfall close to New York City.

Zone B, represented by the following color yellow, indicates areas at risk of storm surge inundation from a MODERATE (Category 2 and higher) hurricane.

Zone C, represented by the following color green, indicates areas at risk of storm surge inundation from a MAJOR hurricane (Category 3 & 4) making landfall just south of New York City. A major hurricane is unlikely in New York City, but not impossible.

[luvwinter]

Not sure if anyone has posted this before, but I thought it was pretty cool.

Storm Surge maps for all the boroughs are at this link.

http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/emols/emols.html

Communities in Zone A, represented by the following color orange , face the highest risk of life-threatening storm surge inundation. Zone A includes all low-lying coastal areas and other areas that could experience storm surge in ANY hurricane (Category 1 and higher) that makes landfall close to New York City.

Zone B, represented by the following color yellow, indicates areas at risk of storm surge inundation from a MODERATE (Category 2 and higher) hurricane.

Zone C, represented by the following color green, indicates areas at risk of storm surge inundation from a MAJOR hurricane (Category 3 & 4) making landfall just south of New York City. A major hurricane is unlikely in New York City, but not impossible.

You would think those areas would go further inland wouldn't you. As well, some of the shelters are located pretty close to areas that are surge prone unless I am seeing things.

[terstorm1012]

Not sure if anyone has posted this before, but I thought it was pretty cool.

Storm Surge maps for all the boroughs are at this link.

http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/emols/emols.html

Communities in Zone A, represented by the following color orange , face the highest risk of life-threatening storm surge inundation. Zone A includes all low-lying coastal areas and other areas that could experience storm surge in ANY hurricane (Category 1 and higher) that makes landfall close to New York City.

Zone B, represented by the following color yellow, indicates areas at risk of storm surge inundation from a MODERATE (Category 2 and higher) hurricane.

Zone C, represented by the following color green, indicates areas at risk of storm surge inundation from a MAJOR hurricane (Category 3 & 4) making landfall just south of New York City. A major hurricane is unlikely in New York City, but not impossible.

You would think those areas would go further inland wouldn't you. As well, some of the shelters are located pretty close to areas that are surge prone unless I am seeing things.

New York is hillier than it looks, and the ground rises fairly quickly away from the coastal innundation zones in a lot of the city.

[jasons2k]

New York is hillier than it looks, and the ground rises fairly quickly away from the coastal innundation zones in a lot of the city.

Exactly, this is something I have tried to point out many times. The highest point on Staten Island is over 400ft above sea level. The whole city won't flood.

[terstorm1012]

New York is hillier than it looks, and the ground rises fairly quickly away from the coastal innundation zones in a lot of the city.

Exactly, this is something I have tried to point out many times. The highest point on Staten Island is over 400ft above sea level. The whole city won't flood.

Yup, Todt Hill, highest point on the eastern Coastal Plain south of the hills on the Maine Coast.

the Fall line between Coastal Plain and Piedmont runs right through the city, actually through most mid-Atlantic and Northeastern cities (except maybe Boston.)

[luvwinter]

Glad to know that highest point is 400 feet above sea-level. I was not aware. I visited as a child but can't remember much about it. So pretty much they would need to worry more about winds and tornadoes correct?

[terstorm1012]

Glad to know that highest point is 400 feet above sea-level. I was not aware. I visited as a child but can't remember much about it. So pretty much they would need to worry more about winds and tornadoes correct?

Well not exactly. Storm Surge flooding is a serious concern and due to the population density, some 2 million people within the city proper, and I believe the estimate is 2 million more in the suburbs of Long Island, and at least one million more in New Jersey need to get out of harms way.

The subways are also flood prone and have flooded during extreme high tides in the past. A major hurricane would put a lot of water underground that would take weeks to pump out.

On Manhattan everything south of Canal Street will be innundated in a severe hurricane, and JFK Airport will also be innundated.

And because NYC is unique in that a significant number of people don't drive or don't own cars because of the high expense, a lot of people will need to evacuate via mass-transit. Also traffic on a good day is bad so they really want people who are not in an evac zone to stay put and not add to the chaos. My concern is a New Orleans repeat. It is why NYC Emergency Management is really getting the word out. Some politicians don't think the plan is good enough but it is still evolving, and NYC Emergency Management is probably one of the better EMO units in the country.

[luvwinter]

They need to get moving with their plan then. Two million people is alot to move. I think their EMO is pretty good. If you look at how they handled 9/11 and then how New Orleans handled Katrina. Huge difference. I hate bringing up 9/11 but more people were killed by that tradgedy than Katrina. They had no warning and no prep time and yes they had some malfunctions but I think they dealt with it okay considering what happened. No the whole city did not flood but it did affect New York city in alot of other ways. I am not putting down anyone from New Orleans so if anyone is offended please don't be. Mayor Rudi Gulianni rose to the occasion and didn't pass the buck from what I saw. Mayor Ray Nagin had an entire week to prepare and get people out of harms way and failed miserably along with Blanco and Fema and passed the buck most of the way.

[zlaxier]

Is this the worst case scenario possible?

A large Cat 5 Katrina type storm riding up the gulf stream off the Carolinas, then phasing with some frontal boundary? in the atmosphere and shooting up the east coast at 60-80mph and hitting just to the west of Manhattan as a 135 mph Cat 4....the eye hits northern New Jersey and Newark but the worst winds and surge in the right hand quadrant (because of the 60-80 mph forward motion) of the storm hit the city and long island....

[terstorm1012]

Is this the worst case scenario possible?

A large Cat 5 Katrina type storm riding up the gulf stream off the Carolinas, then phasing with some frontal boundary? in the atmosphere and shooting up the east coast at 60-80mph and hitting just to the west of Manhattan as a 135 mph Cat 4....the eye hits northern New Jersey and Newark but the worst winds and surge in the right hand quadrant (because of the 60-80 mph forward motion) of the storm hit the city and long island....

I'd say improbable but not impossible.

Promets would probably know more.

[Derek Ortt]

you would need the best QG forcing ever to get a cat 4 in NYC

[terstorm1012]

FYI the History Channel program was similar to, and used much of the same imagery, but was not the same program as the Weather Channel show.

However in terms of information given the History Channel program was MUCH much better then the Weather Channel's program, which I thought was abysmally edited and otherwise poorly done in terms of info given.

Both programs mentioned Gloria which was kind of wimpy, but both forgot Bob, which probably was considerably stronger.

[Derek Ortt]

and Gloria did not produce cat 2 winds that the show reported

It may not have even been a hurricane at landfall based upon the surface obs. Gloria may have been a TS at landfall or a very marginal hurricane... should put things in perspective

[terstorm1012]

and Gloria did not produce cat 2 winds that the show reported

It may not have even been a hurricane at landfall based upon the surface obs. Gloria may have been a TS at landfall or a very marginal hurricane... should put things in perspective

I thought there were gusts at Islip over 95mph? twister?

[Extremeweatherguy]

and Gloria did not produce cat 2 winds that the show reported

It may not have even been a hurricane at landfall based upon the surface obs. Gloria may have been a TS at landfall or a very marginal hurricane... should put things in perspective

I thought there were gusts at Islip over 95mph? twister?

A strong TS or weak Cat. 1 hurricane can easily produce gusts to 95mph. During Hurricane Charley in Orlando, I saw Category 1 force sustained winds near 80mph, but the gusts were much higher (up to 105mph). On average, gusts can be 15-30mph higher than the sustained winds. To get 95mph wind gusts, the sustained winds were probably on the order of 65-80mph at landfall.

[terstorm1012]

That was probably what they meant by Cat 2 then, in the program. At least I'd hope so, most of the rest of the program was pretty good for its science.