Another Test ... Repeat this is only a test

[SouthFloridawx]

HXX01 KWBC 222012
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM TEST (AL892006) ON 20060522 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060522 1800 060523 0600 060523 1800 060524 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.3N 55.3W 20.3N 53.8W 18.6N 53.6W 17.2N 54.5W
BAMM 22.3N 55.3W 21.9N 55.1W 21.4N 55.2W 20.9N 55.4W
A98E 22.3N 55.3W 22.4N 56.3W 22.3N 56.7W 22.4N 56.9W
LBAR 22.3N 55.3W 22.2N 55.0W 22.4N 55.0W 23.0N 55.1W
SHIP 50KTS 42KTS 30KTS 20KTS
DSHP 50KTS 42KTS 30KTS 20KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060524 1800 060525 1800 060526 1800 060527 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.4N 56.1W 15.4N 59.7W 15.0N 62.8W 15.1N 65.4W
BAMM 20.9N 55.7W 21.4N 55.6W 23.3N 52.0W 24.5N 48.6W
A98E 23.1N 56.2W 25.4N 54.7W 32.7N 49.0W 45.2N 41.1W
LBAR 24.3N 54.7W 28.3N 50.6W 30.3N 44.3W 36.3N 38.4W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.3N LONCUR = 55.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 22.1N LONM12 = 54.0W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 21.9N LONM24 = 52.7W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 95NM RD34SE = 95NM RD34SW = 95NM RD34NW = 95NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[jabber]

does anyone know WHAT they are testing?

[SouthFloridawx]

NOTE:
- National Hurricane Center advisories and County Emergency Management statements supersede the scatter plots referenced on this page.
- The products are intended to complement National Hurricane Center discussions, not replace them.
- These are automated products that have not been quality checked.
- If anything on these products causes confusion, ignore the entire product.

The model tracks depicted on this products are derived from products from the US National Hurricane Center, the US National Weather Service, and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office.
Text versions of these products can be found at these links:
NHC
CHG
GFDL
UKMET
The naming conventions for the scatter plot products come mainly from the text products referenced above.
- Tropical cyclones for which the National Hurricane Center issues advisories utilize numbers sequentially from 1 to 49.
- Test messages and tropical distubances which may require the National Hurricane Center to initiate advisories utilize numbers between 80 and 99.
- Tropical cyclones which are forecast to develop by the UK Met Office model utilize the number 50. The tracks of these systems appear on the scatter plots for storm 50 as well as all storms between 80 and 99.

These scatter plots are intended for use by individuals with proper training and expertise.
There are multiple potential causes of misinterpretation that include, but are not limited to, the following:
- Each model utilizes different assumptions and different calculations which leads to different models performing better in different situations.
- All models have unique biases.
- Some models utilize statistics, some utilize physics formulas, some utilize a combination of both.
- Some models perform best with weaker systems, others perform best with well-developed, purely tropical systems.
- The spread of the various model solutions can give a sense of the uncertainty associated with a particular storm track. However, some of the models are interrelated as they share the same initial analyses or the same global forecast fields. Therefore, clustering of model solutions does not necessarily indicate truely independent agreement.
- Poor model analyses of initial conditions can lead to even worse model solutions.
- The National Hurricane Center has access to many other models not included in these products. At times, these other models have a significant impact on the forecast track issued by the National Hurricane Center.
- Further information on some of the models used by the National Hurricane Center can be found at the Hurricane Research Division website.

[Jim Cantore]

Hey the LBAR isnt the most foolish looking track for once lol