NOAA'S May Outlook=13-16 named storms,8-10 canes,4-6 majors

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 22, 2006 6:10 am

You can hear this morning's press conference at ipr (Internet Partnership Radio) starting at 11 AM EDT.

http://radio.nhcwx.com/

When they release their outlook it will be posted at this first post and for that reason the thread will be locked until then.As soon the outlook is posted the thread will be open for the members to discuss all about it.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... cane.shtml

:uarrow:

The outlook is now posted above.

#2 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:11 am

why did you lock my topic? is it bacsue i posted the info here first?

CHRISTY · #3 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:11 am

I still think its gonna be very active! remember It only takes one....

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:12 am

13-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes is what NOAA is forecasting in the May outlook.

Now this thread is open to discuss all about the outlook.

mtm4319 · #5 Postby **mtm4319** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:12 am

The numbers are exactly 1 storm up from 2005's predictions (12-15, 7-9, and 3-5).

#6 Postby **feederband** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:13 am

16/10/6 on the high side of their thinking thats scary enough... :eek:

#7 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:13 am

Against the average those are very high numbers.

#8 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:13 am

I believe those are low estimates. My estimate is 18 to 21 named storms, 11 to 13 hurricanes and 5 to 7 major hurricanes.

KWT · #9 Postby **KWT** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:14 am

South Florida, against the 10 year average (which is the key one considering the above average cycle!) the outlook is actually only a little above average.

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:14 am

As soon the NOAA site has the whole information it will be posted at the first post of thread.

Stratusxpeye · #11 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:15 am

All other threads were locked to discuss this topic. There was a post in the thread about it in th elive broadcast thread posted with the link in it a few minutes ago. Discussion is to be in this thread. Remember it's just a prediction and it is higher than last years. 4-6 majors hmmmm...?

#12 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:15 am

CrazyC83 wrote:I believe those are low estimates. My estimate is 18 to 21 named storms, 11 to 13 hurricanes and 5 to 7 major hurricanes.

As an aside and no negativity meant. I do believe that if you would have predicted that prior to the 2005 season people would be calling you crazy for such high numbers. As we can see by the forecast numbers poll, most people are picking high numbers.

CHRISTY · #13 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:15 am

There numbers are lower then i thought!but there are other key factors here that will allow for an active season.... warm SST'S,Favorable wind pattern and a couple of other Factors.

#14 Postby **Stephanie** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:15 am

68-Stephanie=16/8/4

Darn I'm good! :lol:

J/K!!!!

I'm hoping that it's even lower than that. :eek:

#15 Postby **skysummit** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:16 am

Very nervous that they have predicted more storms compared to the same time last year...and look what happened last year. Maybe this season won't end until March '07.

x-y-no · #16 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:16 am

mtm4319 wrote:The numbers are exactly 1 storm up from 2005's predictions (12-15, 7-9, and 3-5).

Let's hope they're not off by the same amount - I don't think my nerves can take a 29 storm season. :eek:

#17 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:17 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I believe those are low estimates. My estimate is 18 to 21 named storms, 11 to 13 hurricanes and 5 to 7 major hurricanes.

As an aside and no negativity meant. I do believe that if you would have predicted that prior to the 2005 season people would be calling you crazy for such high numbers. As we can see by the forecast numbers poll, most people are picking high numbers.

Yet even those numbers are quite a bit lower than some predictions...the highest is 30 named storms, 18 hurricanes and 11 major hurricanes (which is the normal number of named storms).

Hyperstorm · #18 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:18 am

SSTs are nowhere near as warm as last year, so people need to understand that last year was an extremely anomalous year. I really didn't expect any higher numbers based on this fact, plus the neutral conditions that have become established in the Pacific versus the earlier La Nina pattern. The intensity of the storms is what matters the most than the total number.

Up to 6 major hurricanes is high enough...

#19 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:18 am

"The main uncertainty in this outlook is not whether the season will be above normal, but how much above normal it will be. The 2006 season could become the fourth hyperactive season in a row."

Crap.

seeing how their numbers are basicial ythe same from last year, which went up, and also looking at the current atlantic conditions, i think that they will raise it nother 4 or 5 come the August forecast.

#20 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon May 22, 2006 10:18 am

2006:

2005:

Reality for 2005:
28 TS
15 H
7 IH

NOAA'S May Outlook=13-16 named storms,8-10 canes,4-6 majors

NOAA'S May Outlook=13-16 named storms,8-10 canes,4-6 majors

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