Interesting weather per NWS N.O.

[Stormcenter]

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
409 am CDT Monday may 22 2006


Discussion...
interesting weather expected to occur over the next several days.
We look to be transitioning from a dry to wet pattern by the end
of the week. Upper low over the western Gulf is showing up nicely
in WV imagery this morning. The east side of upper lows have to be
watched very closely during the tropical season and this one will
be no exception.

The tropical wave in the western Carribean yesterday is now
located over the western Yucatan Penn this morning moving west at
15 knots. This will be the catalyst that will cause a large
convective complex to develop on the east side of the upper low in
the Gulf. The easterly wave will interact with strong jet
divergence aloft just to the east of the upper low causing a large
convective complex to develop somewhere in the vicinity of 22.5n
92w. This should begin around 12z this morning. The complex
should strengthen today eventually causing a convective surface
circulation to develop. Eventually this complex of ts will drift
northward and weaken while the convective surface low moves northwest and
weakens under the upper low. This flare up of ts will also help
to weaken the upper low as latent heating from the complex warms the
cold pool aloft destroying the upper low by Wednesday.


The upper trough moving into the West Coast near the baha will
move NE causing the massive upper ridge currently over The
Rockies to flatten. As the upper low kicks out into the plains...it
develops a weak trough southward through the plains states causing
the plume of moisture oriented south to north over the central
Gulf to continue flowing north. This will keeping a train of weak
disturbances moving northward through the weekend into the first
part of next week.

[CHRISTY]

very interesting....i have been watching this area also!thanks for posting.

[Stratusxpeye]

Been watching it as well. Not sure about any devolpment but it is something to watch and see.

[SouthFloridawx]

I was watching gfs last night and looked at the latests disco's and figured that it was probably an upper low but, if the nws in NO is saying it has to be watched... I guess we'll wait 'n see. Hopefull we get another nice rain maker.

[SouthFloridawx]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 9N MOVING W 15 KT. LOW
CLOUD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED JUST N OF THE ITCZ WITH VERY
LITTLE CONVECTION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N
BETWEEN 29W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER S AMERICA ALONG 61W S OF 7N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS
ITS SIGNATURE IS BEING OBSCURED BY TERRAIN EFFECTS OF S AMERICA.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN
57W-62W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 6N32W 3N40W 2N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 10W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 40W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 30N86W. ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF 25N E OF 90W.
A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THE SE GULF FROM 20N87W TO 24N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N95W. CYCLONIC
FLOW IS W OF 90W. THE NW EXTENT OF AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF
90W. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED OVER THE AREA. EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA S OF 27N FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT LIGHT
CONVECTION OVER W CUBA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND S
FLORIDA.

[tailgater]

They sure are being precise with the location and time of a surface reflection.

[canegrl04]

Lets keep our fingers crossed that New Orleans does not get hit with a hurricane this season

[LaBreeze]

No hurricane, but we could certainly use the rainfall - as could everyone along the Gulf Coast. Local met. has been stating that "tropical moisture" will be moving in here by the Memorial Day Weekend. One local met. stated that things might get "a little interesting." Hmmm.

[Portastorm]

Since we're talking about a surface trough and an upper level low, I believe it would take awhile for a surface feature (i.e. low) to develop. Any tropical development would take quite some time.

However, like the good mets at NOLA indicated, east sides of upper lows in the tropics can be quite wet! The west side of these things are usually bone dry.

[Javlin]

Looks to be an upper circulation present no reflection at surface;should bring some much needed rain to the NGOM.I definitely like a lot of the write ups being presented.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

use high level winds

[Stormcenter]

Interesting little twist around the Yucatan.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir4.html

[Javlin]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation


One interesting things about all three of these models is the basic assumption and position of the ridge @144hrs.Granted timing and other variables will come into play later on in the season.But this might not bode will for the GOM should something develop early on this season.