Extremeweatherguy wrote:ronjon wrote:Take JB's "forecast" with a huge grain of salt. Anyone that predicts 3 Major Hurricanes impacting the US this season is pretty far out on a limb. Remember, this is the guy that kept sayin Katrina was headed to Houston. There is no doubt we are in a warm phase of the AMO which means we will have higher than average number of storms for perhaps the next 10 to 40 years. It's also a La Nina year which means lower than average wind shear in the atlantic basin. JB might be correct this year but it'll be shear luck or persistence (i.e. if ya say it often enuff, it's bound to happen). My prediction this year - more storms than average with several Cape Verde origin storms developing - last year shear pretty much ripped up the Cape Verde development - don't see it happening this year.
Katrina heading to Houston? Actually, Joe Bastardi was always consistant in the thinking that Katrina was heading to New Orleans; he even predicted a New Orleans hit last July/August MONTHS in advance. As for the Houston storm, that was Rita, and actually that was a very good forecast. He called for it to hit Houston when the NHC was still saying Brownsville. Turns out he was wrong (as it hit east of Houston), but he really was not all that far off. As for the 3 majors hitting the US in a single season...that is really not all that impossible....for example: 2004 had Charley, Jeanne and Ivan and 2005 had Katrina, Dennis and Rita. If it has happened the last two years, then why wouldn't it happen again?
Okay, I got the wrong storm..it was Rita. Hey, I like JB. He is good at picking up global patterns a week or two ahead of them actually happening (when Opehlia formed last year). But he just hypes things too much for me. I'm a scientist so in my field you tend to be cautious or else you may look like a fool (didn't JB say Ivan would hit NO?). As far as the odds of 3 majors striking the US two years in a row, well, I haven't checked the record but for that to happen three years in a row seems to be fairly low odds. Remember, we've had extremely active seasons from 1995-2002 (except the El Nino years), yet only 3 major storms made landfall out of 27 total major storms that formed. Yes, I know the steering patterns change - I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm just saying anyone who forecasts it is a little nuts.
