N.O. NWS: "Getting to that time of year again"

[BayouVenteux]

Nothing likely more serious than some beneficial rains for the Florida peninsula, but a sure sign that the season will soon be upon us.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
243 AM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...
GETTING TO THAT TIME OF YEAR AGAIN WHEN WE SEE TROPICAL WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLIES MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF. ONE PARTICULAR QUITE IMPRESSIVE WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN AT QUITE A PACE. THE OTHER SYSTEM IS AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUSES FOR OUR WEATHER DURING THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO GET BETTER DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN UP ONCE AGAIN INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH STILL OVER THE NE. BUT FIRST THE UPPER LOW AND ITS MID LEVEL REFLECTION WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR JETTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AT THESE LEVELS. THIS WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP FORMATION TODAY BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP ENOUGH TO GIVE AT LEAST A 10% WITH NO MENTION ATTM ON MONDAY. WOULD ACTUALLY LIKE TO MOVE THIS NUMBER TO 20 BUT WOULD ALSO LIKE TO SEE 12Z RUN TO MAKE SURE THE MOISTENING TREND STAYS THE SAME. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS THE FASTER MOVING TROPICAL WAVE SUBDUCTS THE TROUGH STARTING LATE TONIGHT.

THE INTERACTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND TROPICAL WAVE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. NOW FOR THE PART WE ALL KNOW IS COMING.

THE TROPICAL WAVES INTERACTION WITH THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CAUSE AN AREA FOR EXCELLENT EVACUATION OF AIR ALOFT AS THE WAVE CONNECTS THE SFC AIR TO THIS MID AND UPPER OUTFLOW REGION. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF DUE TO THIS INTERACTION. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME VERY UNSETTLED BUT DISORGANIZED WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE AREAS WILL ALSO CREATE SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SFC CIRCULATIONS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE VERY VOLATILE DUE TO HIGH WIND SHEAR FROM THE UPPER TROUGH DURING THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR AN AREA FROM THE YUCATAN TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS AREA WILL SEE A LOT OF CONVECTION BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISORGANIZED AS WELL. MAIN FLOW AND DIRECTION OF CONVECTION WILL BE TO THE NE OVER FLA.

[TampaFl]

Nothing likely more serious than some beneficial rains for the Florida peninsula, but a sure sign that the season will soon be upon us.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
243 AM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...
GETTING TO THAT TIME OF YEAR AGAIN WHEN WE SEE TROPICAL WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLIES MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF. ONE PARTICULAR QUITE IMPRESSIVE WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN AT QUITE A PACE. THE OTHER SYSTEM IS AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUSES FOR OUR WEATHER DURING THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO GET BETTER DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN UP ONCE AGAIN INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH STILL OVER THE NE. BUT FIRST THE UPPER LOW AND ITS MID LEVEL REFLECTION WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR JETTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AT THESE LEVELS. THIS WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP FORMATION TODAY BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP ENOUGH TO GIVE AT LEAST A 10% WITH NO MENTION ATTM ON MONDAY. WOULD ACTUALLY LIKE TO MOVE THIS NUMBER TO 20 BUT WOULD ALSO LIKE TO SEE 12Z RUN TO MAKE SURE THE MOISTENING TREND STAYS THE SAME. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS THE FASTER MOVING TROPICAL WAVE SUBDUCTS THE TROUGH STARTING LATE TONIGHT.

THE INTERACTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND TROPICAL WAVE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. NOW FOR THE PART WE ALL KNOW IS COMING.

THE TROPICAL WAVES INTERACTION WITH THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CAUSE AN AREA FOR EXCELLENT EVACUATION OF AIR ALOFT AS THE WAVE CONNECTS THE SFC AIR TO THIS MID AND UPPER OUTFLOW REGION. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF DUE TO THIS INTERACTION. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME VERY UNSETTLED BUT DISORGANIZED WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE AREAS WILL ALSO CREATE SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SFC CIRCULATIONS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE VERY VOLATILE DUE TO HIGH WIND SHEAR FROM THE UPPER TROUGH DURING THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR AN AREA FROM THE YUCATAN TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS AREA WILL SEE A LOT OF CONVECTION BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISORGANIZED AS WELL. MAIN FLOW AND DIRECTION OF CONVECTION WILL BE TO THE NE OVER FLA.

Bring on the rain here in West Central Florida. We sure do need it!


Robert

[tgenius]

I believe they mean to Southern FL area, not central FL

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I hope the majority of people in NO take things more seriously this year. I'll never forget watching a news reporter interview people partying, and saying that hurricane was nothing to worry about, 24 hours before it hit.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I believe they mean to Southern FL area, not central FL

I hope the rain DOES come to Central Florida, the rain we had last week was enough to make my lawn green again and I wan't it to stay green.

[jdray]

rain?

oh wait, that is 300 miles south of where I want it to be.

offically hit 98F @ NAS Jax station.

still over 6 inches below normal for this area.

[PTrackerLA]

We're still very dry over here. We had some beneficial soakings in late April but since then have only had .64" of rain. It doesn't appear that we'll be seing much in the way of rainfall for the next week although it looks like rain chances will increase next weekend. We typically start seeing afternoon showers and thunderstorms almost daily starting around June 1.

Here is a special weather statement from the NWS Lake Charles regarding the drought. We're running a 7"+ deficit since January 1st on top of the deficit from 2005.

...SEVERAL DAYS WITHOUT RAIN SPELLS PROBLEMS FOR DROUGHT STRICKEN AREA...

THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES HAVE BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A STUBBORN
UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR NEARLY
A WEEK, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. THIS HAS PUT SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA UNDER A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION, A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.

BECAUSE OF THESE SYSTEMS, ANY CHANCE OF RAIN HAS BEEN SQUASHED.
ALTHOUGH SOME RELIEF WAS FELT FROM LATE APRIL INTO EARLY MAY, IT
HAS BEEN OVER A WEEK SINCE ANY RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA.

RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE MONTH OF MAY RANGE FROM 0.60 INCHES AT
ALEXANDRIA TO 3.32 INCHES AT NEW IBERIA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEW
IBERIA, RAINFALL HAS BEEN ABOUT 20 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT ALEXANDRIA
AND LAFAYETTE, NEARLY 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT LAKE CHARLES, AND
NEARLY 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT BEAUMONT.

THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR AND PALMER DROUGHT INDEX INDICATE
MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
NOTED FROM THE LAKES AREA OF EAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA.

CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE NEXT
WEEK. RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND, BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW AT
THIS TIME.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS THROUGH EARLY JUNE INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. LONGER RANGE OUTLOOKS THROUGH THE
END OF AUGUST INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. THE SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK HAS BEEN UPDATED AND
INDICATES THAT IMPROVEMENT IN THE DROUGHT IS LIKELY THROUGH AUGUST
AND ITS IMPACTS SHOULD EASE.

[SouthFloridawx]

NWS From MIAMI, is stating that the rainy season is very near.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 220141 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
941 PM EDT SUN MAY 21 2006

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES
COLLIDED. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE DONE IN THE NEXT HOUR...AS THE
HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH NOW CAST FOR
THIS AREA UNTIL THE ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATE...BUT NOT MENTION IT IN
THE ZONES.

THERE IS ALSO A LINE OF SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS THAT IS MOVING
NORTH AROUND 20 MPH FROM CUBA THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT WHILE SLOWLY DISSIPATING...BUT
A FEW OF THEM COULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TOWARDS DAYBREAK BEFORE COMPLETELY
DISSIPATING. SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FOR
TONIGHT.

THE OTHER CHANGE IS TO MAKE THE SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY BY
DAYBREAK OVER THE CWA...AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE EASTERN GULF WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLAN.

&&
BAXTER

.PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED NORTH A LITTLE. THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS
ALSO MOVED NORTHWARD SOME. THIS IS PARTLY AS THE RESULT OF THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN MOVING WEST. WE ALSO SEE THE BIG UPPER LOW
WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC AROUND 50W HAS STARTED TO MOVE WEST. THIS
FEATURE COULD POSSIBLY BE IN OUR AREA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE. THIS WOULD DEPEND ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGING AROUND 30N
BECOMES. IN THE MEANTIME THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST HAS PULLED A
LOT OF MOISTURE TOWARD OUR ZONES AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN HERE THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. THIS UPPER TROUGH HAS ALSO CAUSED
THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO MOVE BACK
TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AS A RESULT THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER FLORIDA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK AND WE SHOULD HAVE SEA BREEZES
ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS. THIS SHOULD BRING OUR RAIN
CHANCES TO AT OR ABOVE CLIMATE WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE RAINY SEASON IS JUST ABOUT HERE.

MARINE...STILL GOOD BOATING AS FAR AS WINDS AND SEAS WITH WEAK
GRADIENT AND WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAT 15 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE THE MAIN PROBLEM.

FIRE WEATHER...WE STILL HAVE THE DRY AIR MIXED DOWN OVER THE
INTERIOR SO WARNING STILL GOOD FOR TODAY. AFTER THAT THE HUMIDITIES
WILL RECOVER AND WE SHOULD NOT NEED ANY HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

99


Wooohoo I love the rainy season.

[Steve]

Is New Orleans ready for another hurricane season? Time Magazine has a pretty good piece out on it today.

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/artic ... ml?cnn=yes

Steve

[Janice]

We are definately needing rain in Puerto Rico. My yard is completely dried out. It has been so hot here and the waters are extremely hot too.

Bring on some rain and relief please.....