Dry May has ended

[CHRISTY]

High pressure in control will keep conditions DRY across florida during the weekend.GFS shows in increase in rain chances next week as tropical moisture moves in.

[boca]

Christy does that map loop?

[hookemfins]

That map just comes in 3 or 7 day perioid. No looping.

[meteorologyman]

Tropical moisture from the Carribean is moving into the Gulf so Florida does have a chance of storms.

Does anyone notice that all the storms that have formed in the Gulf had head towards Florida???? and now we are getting tropical moisture. will this trend Continue for the 2006 season?????

[boca]

cross your fingers

[meteorologyman]

I cross my fingers for rain but not for this trend to continue because i'm sure no one wants a repeat of 2004 hurricane season

[boca]

Fora repeat of 2004 you have to look East not SW. EX Frances and Jeanne.

[meteorologyman]

Fora repeat of 2004 you have to look East not SW. EX Frances and Jeanne.

You are correct about that but it could come from the SW this time around could it not.

2004 Florida got slapped in the East, this time it could be the west/SW which COULD be bad news b/c that means it could from Gulf and Carribean which is very warm water

[boca]

Fora repeat of 2004 you have to look East not SW. EX Frances and Jeanne.

You are correct about that but it could come from the SW this time around could it not.

2004 Florida got slapped in the East, this time it could be the west/SW which COULD be bad news b/c that means it could from Gulf and Carribean which is very warm water

True Wilma came from the SW and slapped me pretty good.

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KTBW 210649
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
249 AM EDT SUN MAY 21 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE
STATE FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE UPPER LEVELS
THERE IS A RIDGE OVER THE STATE WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US.
THESE FEATURES GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE TERM AS A TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE WEST US COAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE GULF. THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF WILL SEND SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
THE STATE FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND ALSO LIFT A PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TO OVER SOUTH FL FOR MONDAY AND THEN
TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA BY TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE AND
ENERGY WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH ISOLD STORMS ONLY ACROSS THE NORTH. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT
SCATTERED POPS AT 30 PERCENT...BUT IF THE MORE ROBUST GFS SOLUTION
VERIFIES...WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.TEMPS STAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN COOL TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUESDAY WITH THE GREATER CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM (TUE NGT-SAT)...OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY
THEN SOME RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...
FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
EACH AFTERNOON.

IN GENERAL...FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...BUT DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZES AND SOME MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN
ZONES EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY...
EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR ALL
INTERIOR COUNTIES AS WELL AS INLAND LEVY AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL ALLOW RHS TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR
4-6 HOURS WITH MIN RHS IN THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE. AN UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST OVER THE GULF WILL THEN SEND A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND BRING
TROPICAL AIR OVER THE STATE. THIS WILL MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE
SOME...WITH RHS FALLING BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR ONLY 1-3 HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES ON MONDAY AND ELSEWHERE RHS SHOULD
STAY ABOVE 35 PERCENT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 90 72 90 72 / 5 5 10 10
FMY 93 70 90 70 / 5 10 30 20
GIF 94 70 93 70 / 5 5 10 10
SRQ 87 68 87 69 / 5 5 20 10
BKV 92 60 91 63 / 0 5 5 5
SPG 88 74 88 73 / 5 5 10 10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-LEVY-POLK-
SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE...24
LONG TERM/AVIATION...69

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KTBW 211258
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
858 AM EDT SUN MAY 21 2006

.DISCUSSION UPDATE...ACROSS THE CONUS A STRONG UPPER LOW IS
APPROACHING THE WEST U.S. COAST WITH RIDGING SLIDING INTO THE
PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER VORTEX SPINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES A S/W TROUGH IS
DEEPENING INTO A LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS AN UPPER RIDGE/
WITH IT'S AXIS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES/ DOMINATES THE CWFA WITH
DRY WARM AND STABLE CONDITIONS. ONLY CONCERN WAS SOME FOG THIS
MORNING WHICH WAS PATCHY AND HANDLED WITH A NOW CAST. CURRENT
ZONES LOOK GOOD WITH NO UPDATED REQUIRED.

&&

.MARINE...AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY WILL PROVIDE SOME VARIABILITY IN
WIND DIRECTION BEFORE THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE KICKS IN WITH
ONSHORE FLOW. SPEEDS/SEAS 10KT/2FT OR LESS. NEXT ISSUANCE OUT
AROUND 10AM WITH LITTLE CHANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH A RED FLAG OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR ALTHOUGH THE AREA HAS SHIFTED NORTH ONE COUNTY FROM YESTERDAY.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-LEVY-POLK-
SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

09/RKR

[Stratusxpeye]

Yeah not sure the dry may really ended. I was excited previusly when we had received that rain and it looked good but back to warm and dry. 10am and 80 already heare with my poor brown grass

[boca]

You'll get rain Mon and Tues look at the sat.

[Rainband]

I hope we get some too. Dry as a bone around here. My allergies are really getting bad again.

[TampaFl]

You'll get rain Mon and Tues look at the sat.

Yeah Boca agree the satalitte pics and water vaper show increasing moisture at all levels for the up coming week. Bring on the rain!!!


Robert

[CHRISTY]

Rainy season is set to begin....

000
FXUS62 KMFL 211805
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN MAY 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED NORTH A LITTLE. THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS
ALSO MOVED NORTHWARD SOME. THIS IS PARTLY AS THE RESULT OF THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN MOVING WEST. WE ALSO SEE THE BIG UPPER LOW
WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC AROUND 50W HAS STARTED TO MOVE WEST. THIS
FEATURE COULD POSSIBLY BE IN OUR AREA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE. THIS WOULD DEPEND ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGING AROUND 30N
BECOMES. IN THE MEANTIME THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST HAS PULLED A
LOT OF MOISTURE TOWARD OUR ZONES AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN HERE THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. THIS UPPER TROUGH HAS ALSO CAUSED
THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO MOVE BACK
TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AS A RESULT THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER FLORIDA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK AND WE SHOULD HAVE SEA BREEZES
ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS. THIS SHOULD BRING OUR RAIN
CHANCES TO AT OR ABOVE CLIMATE WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE RAINY SEASON IS JUST ABOUT HERE.

[TampaFl]

We are hoping so here also. NWS Tampa & Melborne are sure hopping so....
NWS TPA AFD

FXUS62 KTBW 211755
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
155 PM EDT SUN MAY 21 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...ACROSS THE CONUS A STRONG UPPER LOW IS
APPROACHING THE WEST U.S. COAST WITH RIDGING SLIDING INTO THE PLAINS
WHILE AN UPPER VORTEX SPINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES A S/W TROUGH IS DEEPENING OVER
THE WESTERN GULF AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES/ WHICH
HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE CWFA WITH DRY WARM AND STABLE CONDITIONS/
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS
FROM THE ATLANTIC WEST OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE GULF. SOUTH OF
THIS RIDGE THERE WAS A PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE...THE REMNANTS OF AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SPOKES OF ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ROTATE UP AND
OUT OF THE GULF TROUGH AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL FL
MON INTO TUE. THIS ENERGY ALONG WITH MOISTURE MIGRATING NORTHWARD/
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS IN PLACE/ WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED POPS
SOUTH TO ISOLATED POPS SOUTH-CENTRAL MON. THE SCATTERED POPS
SPREAD INTO THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AREA TUE WITH ISOLATED IN THE
NORTH. TEMPS WILL STAY CLOSE TO CLIMO ALTHOUGH/ DUE TO AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS/ THE MINS WARM SLIGHTLY WHILE THE MAXES DIP A DEGREE OR
TWO.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...COULD IT BE? THE ONSET OF THE
2006 RAINY SEASON? ONE CAN ONLY HOPE. BUT...IF THE MODEL TRENDS
AND SATELLITE TRENDS BEAR OUT WE MIGHT JUST BE HEADED FOR THE
PRE-SUMMER SOUP...WITH ENERGY IN THE EASTERN GULF PROVIDING THE
"SEED" NECESSARY FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA. KEEP YOUR FINGERS CROSSED...WE
DESPERATELY NEED THE RAIN.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE STORY ALOFT APPEARS TO BE A
LONG-AWAITED RELAXING OF THE 500 MB PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE U.S.
PARTICULARLY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WHERE MAY
HAS BEEN ANYTHING BUT SPRINGLIKE. AT THE SAME TIME THE FASTER
POLAR-BASED WESTERLIES MIGRATE NORTH...WATER VAPOR LOOPS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE TROPICAL MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
SOUTHERN GULF...WHILE INDICATIONS OF A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ARE
EVIDENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.

THE GFS...AND NOW TO SOME DEGREE THE NAM...EACH SHOW THIS SYSTEM
HANGING OUT IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF FOR AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...WITH THE GFS A BIT MORE ACTIVE WITH MID LEVEL
ROTATION AT FIRST WHILE THE NAM SHOWS MORE OF A SHEAR AXIS. THE 12Z
GFS HAS PICKED UP ON THE TREND BEGUN AT THE 00Z RUN...AND INDICATES
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. IMPULSES RUNNING THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WOULD
SPARK MORE ACTIVE DAYS THAN OTHERS...WITH THIS RUN INDICATING NOT
ONLY WEDNESDAY BUT FRIDAY AND PERHAPS THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

BY THE TIME EVERYTHING IS "DONE"...MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S. IS
SITTING UNDER A BROAD RIDGE...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS FLORIDA HAS
TURNED TO THE SOUTHEAST OR EAST. THIS WOULD BE AT THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND...AND SHOULD IT HAPPEN COULD BE THE ONSET OF THIS YEAR'S
RAINY SEASON...JUST A HAIR EARLIER THAN NORMAL.

THAT SAID...I REALLY WOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS TREND CONTINUE BEFORE
OFFERING A SEA CHANGE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND DAY 4/5. SO...FOR
NOW...HAVE BEGUN A SLOW RAMP UP WITH THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...STILL LEANING ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THE RECENT 12Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. HAVE NOT LOOKED AT THE ENSEMBLE AS OF YET.
THE ONLY OTHER CHANGES ARE TO BEEF UP SKY COVER ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAYTIME AND EVENING...AND TAKE DOWN TEMPERATURES A TOUCH OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH ZONES. SURFACE RH WILL BE ON THE RISE...AND
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD FINALLY ABATE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD.&&


NWS MLB AFD

FXUS62 KMLB 211841
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
240 PM EDT SUN MAY 21 2006

...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STORMS MUCH OF THIS WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...CAN'T SEE A WHOLE LOT OF A DIFFERENCE BTWN LAST NIGHT AND
TONIGHT. SFC-H85 RIDGE AXES ARE STACKED OVER THE TOP OF FL WITH ONLY
LIGHT SRLY FLOW @ H70. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FORMATION OF
PATCHY...SHALLOW FOG...BUT ENOUGH TO REDUCE LCL VSBYS TO <1
MILE...ESPEC IN AREAS OF LINGERING SMOKE FORM SMOLDERING FIRES.

MON...MODELS INDICATE THE BEGINNINGS OF A GRADUAL EWD MIGRATION OF
THE DLM RIDGES WHICH HAVE BEEN DOMINANT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS LEADS TO A GRADUAL NWD INFLUX OF MOISTURE. NOT SUBSTANTIAL BY
ANY MEANS...BUT ENOUGH TO WHERE WE SHOULD SEE A LITTLE MORE CU
DEVELOPMENT THAN THIS PAST WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS A STRAY SHRA/TSRA
INVOF LAKE OKEE WHERE SEA/LAKE BDRY INTERACTIONS MAY OCCUR. WITH THE
RIDGE OVHD A BIT WEAKER...MAX TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS THEY
WERE THIS PAST WEEKEND. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL FORM AND MOVE
STEADILY INLAND...WITH MAX TEMPS U80S COASTAL TO L90S INLAND.

TUE-WED...TROUGH OVER WESTERN GULF FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
AND PUMP HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. WITH DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALONG EASTERN
SEABOARD THERE SHOULD BE A CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SETTING UP
TO OUR NORTH...SO THERE COULD BE A QUITE SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL FLORIDA.

WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA
SUGGESTS THAT THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INLAND. HAVE STAYED
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH
BOTH DAYS...AND GENERALLY SHOWING 20 POPS NORTH AND 30 SOUTH...
THOUGH HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE GETS IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. MORE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK TO ABOUT NORMAL.

THU-SUN...THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOWED THAT AFTER A
FEW DAYS WITH HEIGHT FALLS/INCREASED MOISTURE...THERE WOULD BE
DRYING ALOFT...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THE 12Z GFS IS LESS PRONOUNCED IN SHUNTING MOISTURE SOUTHWARD THOUGH
AND ACTUALLY KEEPS HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTH...BUT WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY...WILL
NOT GO WITH ANYTHING HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

MANY YEARS THE BEGINNING OF THE "WET SEASON" FALLS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD (WET SEASON GENERALLY MEANING THERE IS AN ABSENCE OF *LONG*
DRY SPELLS...OR SHOWERS OCCUR MORE FREQUENTLY). IT IS QUESTIONABLE
AS TO WHETHER THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR ON TIME THIS YEAR.

&&.MARINE...SEAS 2FT OR LESS THRU MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS BENEATH THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS...DOMINATED BY LOCAL SEA AND LAND BREEZE CIRCS.

TUE-FRI...LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT BE STARTING TO GET INTO THE TIME OF
YEAR WITH RIDGE AXIS NEARBY AND HAVING LESS WIND/SEA CONCERNS AND
MORE LIGHTING STORM CONCERNS.




.

[Patrick99]

Bring on the rainy season! I am tired of this weather, of this searing sun all day long.

Looking at the AFDs......what happened to the Key West AFD? I can no longer find it...

[CHRISTY]

Rain Chances Maybe lowered a bit for now? Scattered coverge which lasts into the weekend!

000
FXUS62 KMFL 220752
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
352 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY ALTHOUGH INCHING ITS WAY WHILE WEAKENING BY THE
END OF THE WEEK TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WEAK SFC RIDGE JUST N OF LAKE
OKEE WILL ALSO MOVE LITTLE AND ALONG WITH UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW SFC
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVR THE SRN BAHAMAS TO MOVE N ACROSS S FLA. ALL
OF THIS LEADS TO INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND A GOOD SHOT FOR
MUCH NEEDED RAIN. GPS-MET ESTIMATES PWAT AT 2 INCHES OVER KEY TO
ABOUT 1.25 INCHES AT LAKE OKEE. MY CURRENT FEELING IS THAT PWAT WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN AREAS AND
WILL GO SCT TSRA ACROSS THE BOARD. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUT ANY BREAKS WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT
HEATING AT THE SFC. QUESTION FOR THE DAY IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN TUE.
EARLIER GFS RUNS SHOWED SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SE GULF AND
MOVING ACROSS THE PENINSULA BUT IT NOW HAS COMPLETELY BACKED OFF
THIS IDEA HOLDING THE UPPER FEATURE WELL TO THE WEST. SO THUSLY
SCALED BACK TUE POPS TO SCT COVERAGE WHICH LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

[jdray]

NWS Jax doesnt see that much chance up here.

=====================
000
FXUS62 KJAX 220617
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
209 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2006

.SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARM SIDE (BUT NOT
AS HOT AS BEEN REALIZED LAST SEVERAL DAYS) WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM FROM UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 90S
WELL INLAND. WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALLOW THE EAST
COAST SEA-BREEZE TO REACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH A DOMINATING
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AREA-WIDE
TODAY AS MEAN-LAYER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

MEAN LAYER RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO DIG SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING OVERHEAD. THESE FEATURES
COUPLED WITH THE SEA-BREEZE MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE MORE
THAN ISOLATED ACTIVITY DUE TO LOW ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.


.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEAK SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH NO DOMINANT FEATURE.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ANCHOR
WELL OFFSHORE...WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW REGIME
WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE...ALBEIT SLOWLY...AND INSTABILITY
LEADING TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION.

WARMEST DAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO
MID 90S TEMPERATURES FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
SEASONAL LEVELS FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES EAST AND SOUTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIODS
AS SEAS REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ATMOSPHERE HAS UNDERGONE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES WITHIN
THE LAST 12 HOURS AND DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW THESE WILL IMPACT TODAYS
FIRE WX. CLOUDS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN ON THE INCREASE...BUT ENTIRELY
IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS MY STRUGGLE MORE INITIALLY...
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE LARGELY UNAFFECTED. IN ADDITION SURFACE TO 850
RIDGE AXIS HAS SETTLED CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA AND ALTHOUGH
SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE...MIXING WILL BE DELAYED. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
PERHAPS JUST A LATER ONSET OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. WITH SEABREEZE
MAKING GREATER PENETRATION EARLIER...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE FLAGLER
OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.