Oceanic Heat Content

[MWatkins]

Although a lot of attention is placed on the temperatures of the sea surface of the EPac and Atlantic oceans around this time of year, not enough attention gets focused on the amount of Oceanic Heat Content.

For tropical systems to develop and survive the water must not only be warm at the surface, but also at depth.

We've seen considerable fluctuations in the SSTs in the Atlantic in the last few weeks, but the bigger story is that the water is still plenty warm at depth.

There are a couple of ways to measure this. You can look at the amount of heat energy estimated to be available as in here:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 006139.png

Or you can look at how deep down the 26 degree isotherm extends to determine the depth of minimal heat needed to sustain a tropical system:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 139d26.png

From both of these maps it is readily apparent the western Atlantic is pretty warm at depth (especially in map #2) while the eastern Pacific out to 135W or so is very cold.

In fact, you almost have to go clear out to the Central Pacific area of responsibility (west of 140W) to get heat at depth. And once you get out there, you get into a climatologically unfavorable place from sustained tropical development.

This would argue against any significant early season East Pac development. However, this would also suggest we have just about enough heat in the western part of the Atlantic, especially in the Caribbean, to sustain something once we can get a good pre-existing disturbance and favorable conditions aloft going.

If you want to look at these maps on a basin or global perspective daily (plus more maps) you can go here:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/

Also, RSMAS Miami is maintaing an experimental page with various analysis as well, including Gulf of Mexico zooms for those who like to watch the loop current etc:

http://iwave.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/

MW

[MetroMike]

Very interesting....I saved that last link for future reference.
Thanks.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Very true. This was the case in the Gulf last year when the heat content was very high. When you have low heat content with all the upwelling from the winds cooler water is brought to the surface and weakens storms alot of times.

[jimbo]

Very interesting....I saved that last link for future reference.
Thanks.

Ditto