Tropical Wave near Africa....looks interesting

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Weathermaster
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Tropical Wave near Africa....looks interesting

#1 Postby Weathermaster » Fri May 19, 2006 2:54 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ADDED ALONG 16W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. ALTHOUGH
IT IS LOW-LATITUDE..THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE WITH A BROAD
CIRCULATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE
FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 18W-21.5W
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 19, 2006 2:59 pm

East Atlantic Met 8 image

Looks with convection now however for sure it will lose some of it as it trecks westward.However there is moist air in the atlantic so this one may not go poof entirely.

Water Vapor

:uarrow: :uarrow:
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#3 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri May 19, 2006 3:02 pm

blob watch!!!
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#4 Postby weatherwoman132 » Fri May 19, 2006 3:05 pm

o0. :hmm:
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#5 Postby skysummit » Fri May 19, 2006 3:33 pm

That wave off of Africa is in a pretty low shear environment right now.

Shear Chart
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#6 Postby Camille_2_Katrina » Fri May 19, 2006 3:38 pm

i think the waters are too cool out there this early in the year...
probably need to wait untill late August for one of those to make
it over here to the CONUS
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#7 Postby skysummit » Fri May 19, 2006 3:40 pm

You really don't need very warm waters for a wave to make it all the way across the Atlantic.
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#8 Postby Camille_2_Katrina » Fri May 19, 2006 3:41 pm

skysummit wrote:You really don't need very warm waters for a wave to make it all the way across the Atlantic.


but you do for organization... :eek: :eek:
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#9 Postby skysummit » Fri May 19, 2006 3:45 pm

Camille_2_Katrina wrote:
skysummit wrote:You really don't need very warm waters for a wave to make it all the way across the Atlantic.


but you do for organization... :eek: :eek:


It doesn't have to organize right now. As long as it can hold itself together as a wave even with a little convection and continue to move west toward a more favorable area, it'll eventually get into warmer waters. Remember what Katrina did? She was barely even noticable before she organized.
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#10 Postby Camille_2_Katrina » Fri May 19, 2006 3:46 pm

skysummit wrote:
Camille_2_Katrina wrote:
skysummit wrote:You really don't need very warm waters for a wave to make it all the way across the Atlantic.


but you do for organization... :eek: :eek:


It doesn't have to organize right now. As long as it can hold itself together as a wave even with a little convection and continue to move west toward a more favorable area, it'll eventually get into warmer waters. Remember what Katrina did? She was barely even noticable before she organized.


you were the one comenting on the low sheer invironment...
sheer hinders orginization...

:eek: :eek:
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#11 Postby skysummit » Fri May 19, 2006 3:46 pm

Chooo Chooo.....let the wave train begin! LOL :wink:

Image
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#12 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri May 19, 2006 4:00 pm

skysummit wrote:Chooo Chooo.....let the wave train begin! LOL :wink:

Image
One of these waves could end up being our first storm 1-2 weeks down the road.
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#13 Postby hurricanetrack » Fri May 19, 2006 4:02 pm

Actually water temps at the surface are warm enough out there. South of 10 degrees latitude, which is where most of the convection lies, is above 26.5 C:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png

The environment around this wave is just not conducive yet. Overall, there is likely not enough latent heat in the atmosphere to get this thing going. Although it is interesting, perhaps, that it was noted as a "significant wave".
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#14 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri May 19, 2006 4:15 pm

what's the earliest a true CV storm has formed?

Im not asking this because I think we will get one soon, but because as far as I know, storms form only in the GOM, Carib and off the east FL coast through at least late July. also the NHC climate map(Im not going to post it since it already has been a few times) for June and July only have those areas that I mentioned highlighted for possible development.
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#15 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 19, 2006 4:21 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:what's the earliest a true CV storm has formed?

Im not asking this because I think we will get one soon, but because as far as I know, storms form only in the GOM, Carib and off the east FL coast through at least late July. also the NHC climate map(Im not going to post it since it already has been a few times) for June and July only have those areas that I mentioned highlighted for possible development.


Bertha 1996

:uarrow: :uarrow:

The most east and earliest named storm formation was Bertha in 1996.
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#16 Postby drezee » Fri May 19, 2006 4:26 pm

http://www.meteosat.com/imagenes/meteos ... ot-col.jpg
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#17 Postby Janice » Fri May 19, 2006 4:33 pm

Hey, something big can come out of a little wave that looks like nothing. Every wave that looks interesting should be watched.

I am definately keeping my eyes on all waves this season. I just have a bad feeling this year... :roll:
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#18 Postby NONAME » Fri May 19, 2006 4:44 pm

Um nothing in the atlantic has a chance of Forming till it gets above atleast 7.5N or higher.
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#19 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri May 19, 2006 4:51 pm

cycloneye wrote:
wxwatcher91 wrote:what's the earliest a true CV storm has formed?

Im not asking this because I think we will get one soon, but because as far as I know, storms form only in the GOM, Carib and off the east FL coast through at least late July. also the NHC climate map(Im not going to post it since it already has been a few times) for June and July only have those areas that I mentioned highlighted for possible development.


Bertha 1996

:uarrow: :uarrow:

The most east and earliest named storm formation was Bertha in 1996.


thanks.
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#20 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri May 19, 2006 7:01 pm

Isn't it still imbedded within the ITCZ?
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