When and Where will Alberto form?

Rainband · #21 Postby **Rainband** » Fri May 19, 2006 1:08 am

June 23. Off SE Florida

#22 Postby **O Town** » Fri May 19, 2006 6:29 am

June 17th around 15N and 70W toward the eastern Caribbean.

#23 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri May 19, 2006 6:34 am

JUne 3rd, NW Caribbean or Just N of the Yucatan. Landfall in the FL bib Bend as a CAT 1

#24 Postby **O Town** » Fri May 19, 2006 7:18 am

vbhoutex wrote:JUne 3rd, NW Caribbean or Just N of the Yucatan. Landfall in the FL bib Bend as a CAT 1

I hope not, I am praying nothing stirs up the gulf before my vacation to Sanibel at the end of July.

Don't want another Dennis even if its only Cat 1.

Stratusxpeye · #25 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Fri May 19, 2006 7:33 am

I say mid jun around june 11th or within that week to 18th. Will likely form in the gulf or the northern caribean. Close to home at least. Few weeks to go to see if it is anywhere near correct.

boca · #26 Postby **boca** » Fri May 19, 2006 9:13 am

June 26th in the NW Caribbean move NNW into the Gulf than hit FL panhandle west of Apalachicola.

#27 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Fri May 19, 2006 9:14 am

Early or Mid June. formation around Peurto Ricio (i know that is spelt wrong), and make it up to cat. 1. it would head NE until it gets up to around GOM, turn north, and get caught in the gulf stream.], which turns it west. In the GOM, it will undergo medium wind shear ans weaken to a mid TS. the gulf stream will slow down a little bit as high pressure builds in the Gulf. It will stall over Central Florida. the High pressure front will slowly move towards florrida, pushing the TS, or at this point, TD, SEward off the coast of Broward County. it could cause 4-6 inches of rain over CFl, while a little more will be found over SFL.

#28 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Fri May 19, 2006 9:15 am

mid june in the s. GOM or N. caribbean

#29 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri May 19, 2006 9:51 am

Early June, Caribbean Sea or Bay of Campeche.

Camille_2_Katrina · #30 Postby **Camille_2_Katrina** » Fri May 19, 2006 10:02 am

i doubt we will see a named storm until late
August... plenty of blobs... but no named
storms untill late into the season.

NW Carib. and into the GOM

CHRISTY · #31 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri May 19, 2006 10:14 am

Guys first thing i want to mention this is very long range from the GFS and it cant really be taken seriously but i thought it was kinda interesting!it shows something coming out of the carribean then pushing north over cuba and crossing the keys and parts of florida....maybe signs of alberto.We may get activity in june afterall we will see!

#32 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri May 19, 2006 10:18 am

Christy that was the 6z which is not the best time to look at long range models.The 12z and the 00z are the best ones as those have a more complete data.

Stratusxpeye · #33 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Fri May 19, 2006 10:23 am

Camille_2_Katrina wrote:i doubt we will see a named storm until late
August... plenty of blobs... but no named
storms untill late into the season.

NW Carib. and into the GOM

I have head this a few places. Is this just a guess or do you have some theory as to the reson on this? Just wondering.

Camille_2_Katrina · #34 Postby **Camille_2_Katrina** » Fri May 19, 2006 10:26 am

Stratusxpeye wrote:
Camille_2_Katrina wrote:i doubt we will see a named storm until late
August... plenty of blobs... but no named
storms untill late into the season.

NW Carib. and into the GOM

I have head this a few places. Is this just a guess or do you have some theory as to the reson on this? Just wondering.

there have been many years in the past that don't see a named
storm until late in the season... "92 is a good example.

Gut feeling too. statisticlly speaking... after 04 and 05... it's very possible
we may have a very slow/late year.

Stratusxpeye · #35 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Fri May 19, 2006 10:30 am

Hope your right

Give everyone a break for a little while. My gut feeling though is somewhat opposite. Mid june I belive the season may get started. I say it will be active too. Total of around 15-18 storms.

Camille_2_Katrina · #36 Postby **Camille_2_Katrina** » Fri May 19, 2006 11:21 am

well.. the later the better.
it has been my experience that i get a whole
lot more work done around the office when
there are no storms to track..

#37 Postby **skysummit** » Fri May 19, 2006 11:23 am

LOL....and I get a whole lot more work when storms make landfall. I'm pretty comfortable with the amount of work I currently have.

benny · #38 Postby **benny** » Fri May 19, 2006 2:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:Christy that was the 6z which is not the best time to look at long range models.The 12z and the 00z are the best ones as those have a more complete data.

Any documentation on that claim?

#39 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri May 19, 2006 3:10 pm

Any documentation on that claim?

It's not a claim but a real fact that the 12z and the 00z runs are the best ones to look for as those get feeded with the more complete data.Mike Watkins in one of the past Talking Tropics shows of 2005 talked about that.

Camille_2_Katrina · #40 Postby **Camille_2_Katrina** » Fri May 19, 2006 3:41 pm

i still say late August... NW Carib and into GOM

When and Where will Alberto form?

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