Tropical Formation in the Caribbean later this week?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That was not a mess that was a low that crossed central America. In moved into the Caribbean if I remember right.

I think we are going to get our yearly May invest. It has never develop came close a few years ago...When a system formed in hit Hati killing more then Jeanne.

[wxman57]

I wouldn't get too excited about a frontal wave with 40-50 kt SW winds aloft. Sure, there have been occasions where a sheared semi-tropical system has developed in such situations, but the chances for development (which would mean NHC issuing advisories) would appear to be quite low, perhaps 1% or less. And anything that does develop will zip to the NE across Cuba and out to sea. So nothing we in the U.S. should be the slightest bit concerned, with the possible exception of extreme south Florida, where there may be a little rain.

[tgenius]

more rain?!? woohoo!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I wouldn't get too excited about a frontal wave with 40-50 kt SW winds aloft. Sure, there have been occasions where a sheared semi-tropical system has developed in such situations, but the chances for development (which would mean NHC issuing advisories) would appear to be quite low, perhaps 1% or less. And anything that does develop will zip to the NE across Cuba and out to sea. So nothing we in the U.S. should be the slightest bit concerned, with the possible exception of extreme south Florida, where there may be a little rain.

I agree this has about zero percent chance/

[CHRISTY]

I wouldn't get too excited about a frontal wave with 40-50 kt SW winds aloft. Sure, there have been occasions where a sheared semi-tropical system has developed in such situations, but the chances for development (which would mean NHC issuing advisories) would appear to be quite low, perhaps 1% or less. And anything that does develop will zip to the NE across Cuba and out to sea. So nothing we in the U.S. should be the slightest bit concerned, with the possible exception of extreme south Florida, where there may be a little rain.

actually shear wise conditions look favorable threw 72 hrs.

[HurricaneHunter914]

And the shear levels should continue to decrease aswell

[cheezyWXguy]

in my opinion its got about a 40% chance to make it to a TD and a 15% chance to be a TS...if it made it to TS it'd probably be 40mph at best

[HURAKAN]

I don't like to give it numbers. I just say that the ingredients are there and there is the possibility that something may develop. Nevertheless, so far it's doesn't seem to be imminent or in the near future.

[cheezyWXguy]

ya...if its still ther after the front moves thru, then it may develop

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

The major shear drop in the Carib and Atlantic should help devellopment for this system if it can organize a little.

[cycloneye]

Persistance is the key word with this.Give it a couple of days to see how it all evolves,or it weakens or it starts to organize.

[cheezyWXguy]

it looks like its briefly weakening as the cold front moves thru...

[Opal storm]

I give it a 0% chance of developing...for now Lets see what it looks like in a couple of days.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If we're this excited about this "nothing system"...then I can't wait to see what we will be like come July 15th and a major hurricane is forming!

[NONAME]

Right now that wave isnt looking good but if you go to Jeff Masters lastest blog he say that the shear is breaking down and devlopment could happen next week with something.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical

[cycloneye]

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK TRADEWINDS AGAIN DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED OUT OF THE GULF NOW EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO OVER
HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE AREA E
OF THE FRONT...IS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST COLOMBIA
NEAR 12N73W WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO
THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. THUS...SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED E OF THE FRONT FROM 72W-81W FROM OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
AMERICA ACROSS W CUBA AND HAITI INTO THE W ATLC. THIS IS LEAVING THE
FAR W CARIBBEAN CLEAR AND DRY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDS S INTO THE TROPICS INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W.
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FAR E CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EVEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE.

Above is the 8 PM discussion from TPC.Nothing to open eyebrows reading from that paragrafh.

[wzrgirl1]

you never know.........could be one of those weird seasons again..........this could be the start of it

[caribepr]

Above is the 8 PM discussion from TPC.Nothing to open eyebrows reading from that paragraph.

My eyes haven't opened wide yet...so I guess we aren't all going to die in the next week or so, though you might not guess it from this thread!!

[JonathanBelles]

any change?

[HURAKAN]

any change?

So far, an extremely disorganized area of convection covers the central and western Caribbean affecting the countries nearby. Persistence is the key and time will tell.