Tropical Formation in the Caribbean later this week?

#121 Postby **skysummit** » Wed May 17, 2006 3:45 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Certainly an area to watch.

Wait....this coming from a pro met??? This comment has definately made my eyebrows raise.

CHRISTY · #122 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 17, 2006 3:49 pm

skysummit wrote:
KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Certainly an area to watch.

Wait....this coming from a pro met??? This comment has definately made my eyebrows raise.

Shear is very low in the area righr now ,so if it can sucessfully survive this cold front passage we might be talking about TD 1.Most of other variables look good,a fair amount of upper divergence,plenty of upper and mid level spin,abundant moisture aloft,warm SST'S around 28 degrees celcius and pretty good deep convection.I would say it has 50 to 50 chance of developing.

HurricaneHunter914 · #123 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed May 17, 2006 3:50 pm

As long as the temps stay warm and the shear is low this is an area to watch.

CHRISTY · #124 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 17, 2006 3:55 pm

Shear is on the Decrease in the Carribean...

#125 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed May 17, 2006 3:57 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONES IN MAY

cheezyWXguy · #126 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Wed May 17, 2006 4:24 pm

I would say 40-50% chance of development out of this

#127 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed May 17, 2006 4:26 pm

Let just say that it has the possibility to develop.

#128 Postby **tgenius** » Wed May 17, 2006 4:27 pm

Let's get realistic though... even if it DID form to a TD.. or even a TS.. the water/shear/etc isn't right to sustain hurricane strength, or is it? :eek:

Extremeweatherguy · #129 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed May 17, 2006 4:27 pm

HURAKAN wrote:TROPICAL CYCLONES IN MAY

none have ever hit texas

Extremeweatherguy · #130 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed May 17, 2006 4:28 pm

tgenius wrote:Let's get realistic though... even if it DID form to a TD.. or even a TS.. the water/shear/etc isn't right to sustain hurricane strength, or is it?

I think it is too early and too unfavorable for a hurricane right now. This will be a different story in a month or two however...

Scorpion · #131 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed May 17, 2006 4:28 pm

tgenius wrote:Let's get realistic though... even if it DID form to a TD.. or even a TS.. the water/shear/etc isn't right to sustain hurricane strength, or is it?

No. If it developed, it would get to weak TS strength at most.

#132 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed May 17, 2006 4:28 pm

tgenius wrote:Let's get realistic though... even if it DID form to a TD.. or even a TS.. the water/shear/etc isn't right to sustain hurricane strength, or is it?

First, no one is expecting a hurricane from this.

Second, if conditions were to be favorable if the storm developed, then the waters would sustain a hurricane.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #133 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed May 17, 2006 4:34 pm

The sst's could hold a major in the caribbean right now. But this has about as much chance of developing as a monkey loging in on storm2k on my computer.

HurricaneHunter914 · #134 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed May 17, 2006 4:39 pm

Well I just did.

Extremeweatherguy · #135 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed May 17, 2006 4:52 pm

Latest look at the Caribbean. Looks interesting for sure:

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #136 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed May 17, 2006 4:55 pm

Its just the tail end of a frontal boundry/Front. Cold front to be sure...

CHRISTY · #137 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 17, 2006 4:55 pm

What a mess!Lets see if something comes out of this?

Caribbean Image

#138 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed May 17, 2006 4:57 pm

Remember the mess from where Odette in 2003 came from!

#139 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed May 17, 2006 4:58 pm

After all, tropical cyclones are a natural proof that organized things come from messes.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #140 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed May 17, 2006 4:58 pm

That was not a mess that was a low that crossed central America. In moved into the Caribbean if I remember right.

Tropical Formation in the Caribbean later this week?

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