Tropical Formation in the Caribbean later this week?

Rainband · #101 Postby **Rainband** » Wed May 17, 2006 1:20 pm

The TPC says it will merge with the front. Patience everyone...

Stratusxpeye · #102 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Wed May 17, 2006 1:29 pm

I give it 20% chance of dev. Would be nice to see one this time of year. Pretty much would gaurentee something to track but nothing all that major and not a great extent of damage at all. Maybe it could just be a big blob of convection and rain and sit over tampa here for a few days

that would be nice.

#103 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed May 17, 2006 1:32 pm

5-10% chance.

#104 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Wed May 17, 2006 1:35 pm

what direction will it move in even if it doesnt form? N,S,E, or W?

CHRISTY · #105 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 17, 2006 1:35 pm

Guys on this map you can see it has between 2 and 5 percent to develope!

jdray · #106 Postby **jdray** » Wed May 17, 2006 2:10 pm

Well AccuWX is showing something in NE Gulf Area Memorial Day Weekend.

I know this is 11 days out, but:

Monday Night (May 29):
Considerable cloudiness and windy with thunderstorms. Winds from the ESE at 20 mph.

Tuesday day (May 30):
Overcast and windy with thunderstorms. Winds from the SE at 22 mph.

Whereas Brewton Alabama (heading there Memorial Day Weekend)
Monday Night & Day (May 30): Rain. Winds from the ENE at 16 mph.

Apalachicola (midway between):
Monday Night & Day (May 30): Cloudy, windy and humid with thunderstorms. Winds from the ESE at 20 mph.

Cedar Key Florida:
Monday Night (May 30): Windy with rain. Winds from the ESE at 20 mph.

Tampa:
Monday Night (May 30): Overcast, windy and humid with thunderstorms. Winds from the SE at 21 mph.

That puts a center location in the NE Gulf Memorial Day weekend. Good Broad (sub)Tropical Low perhaps? GFS kinda shows this as well.
Something to ponder.

chrisnnavarre · #107 Postby **chrisnnavarre** » Wed May 17, 2006 3:08 pm

O.K. I'm going to go ahead and call it... what is it folks? it's A..........

BEAR WATCH!!

CHRISTY · #108 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 17, 2006 3:19 pm

chrisnnavarre wrote:O.K. I'm going to go ahead and call it... what is it folks? it's A..........

BEAR WATCH!!

#109 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed May 17, 2006 3:24 pm

Pensistance is the key, like it has been said many times. Right now we have a weak low pressure system that will interact with a weakening cold front. The atmosphere in the regions is inestable, a plus; high sea-surface temperatures, another plus. So far, strong upper-level winds, a negative; but it's suppose to weaken to favorable levels over the next few days. An abundance of moisture, another plus.

A lot of more things must happen for developmen to occur. Shower activity should continue to blossom over the next few days. Upper level winds should decrease. The cold front should dissipate completely. And many other things.

Nevertheless, if we are going to see development during May, this area is a must!

HurricaneHunter914 · #110 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed May 17, 2006 3:30 pm

Alberto we're going to get you.

#111 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed May 17, 2006 3:31 pm

I never imagined this would be 6 pages by now... I just posted it last night :eek:

HurricaneHunter914 · #112 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed May 17, 2006 3:33 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/ir2-l.jpg

Looks a little weaker today, but you never know if this thing is going to pull a Tropical Storm on us.

#113 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed May 17, 2006 3:34 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:I never imagined this would be 6 pages by now... I just posted it last night

And it's nothing more than an area of broad low pressure and a cold front that will merge with no developing concerns in the near future.

HurricaneHunter914 · #114 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed May 17, 2006 3:37 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

You sure? Because with low shear and above average temps in the Carib right now I think this thing has a slight chance.

#115 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Wed May 17, 2006 3:38 pm

at least we dont have hurricane amnesia

#116 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed May 17, 2006 3:39 pm

cycloneye wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:I never imagined this would be 6 pages by now... I just posted it last night

And it's nothing more than an area of broad low pressure and a cold front that will merge with no developing concerns in the near future.

At least this has more of a chance to develop than Invest 91W. :lol:

Like I said, if something will develop in May, most likely the place to find it will be the Caribbean.

#117 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed May 17, 2006 3:40 pm

At least this has more of a chance to develop than Invest 91W.

Oh yes agree 100% with that. :lol:

#118 Postby **mvtrucking** » Wed May 17, 2006 3:40 pm

I know I have seen my share of big rain makers in the early summer when I used to live in Baton Rouge.(Tropical storms) Forget the name of the TS several years ago that dumped almost 3 feet of rain there?Houston got it bad also. June 1st is just, what 14 days away? Something could pop up quickly..

#119 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Wed May 17, 2006 3:42 pm

Certainly an area to watch.

CHRISTY · #120 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 17, 2006 3:44 pm

Tropical Formation in the Caribbean later this week?

Could it be, the first....

Re: Could it be, the first....

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