SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic #3

benny · #41 Postby **benny** » Mon May 15, 2006 12:37 pm

boca_chris wrote:Looks like there is a slight cooling in the La Nina regions of the EPAC along the equator just off the South American coast based on the SST loop from the past week. Is this due to the trades starting to kick up in that region?

Has anybody seen this trend? Looks like La Nina may be a real possibility this year.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

That would be a bit of a shocker to go back to La Nina... at least as defined by NOAA.. but I wouldn't be surprised to see occasional cool tongues in the EPAC controlled somewhat by passages of the MJO. It doesn't seem like any cooling is likely west of 110w with the active phase in the western hemisphere.. give that a couple weeks and maybe it will change.

#42 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 15, 2006 1:04 pm

Weekly Update of Atl Anomalys

:uarrow:

This weeks update shows less warm GOM,more warmer Eastern Caribbean,pockets of cool spots thru the MDR area and very warm anomalies in the North Atlantic.

benny · #43 Postby **benny** » Mon May 15, 2006 1:26 pm

cycloneye wrote:Weekly Update of Atl Anomalys

This weeks update shows less warm GOM,more warmer Eastern Caribbean,pockets of cool spots thru the MDR area and very warm anomalies in the North Atlantic.

A progression of the past 4 weeks:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/hurricane/atlsst.shtml

In general cooler anomalies in the GOM, warm in the Caribbean, a little warmer than average in the tropical Atlantic and no big trend there. I'll be interested to see if the large ridge forecast in the E/Central Atlc late week takes a bite out of any of those anomalies or not.

#44 Postby **windycity** » Mon May 15, 2006 6:45 pm

ok, now i am convinced. With the up and downs of SSTs, this season is bipolar.,with the manic phase to come. I guess we need one more month to see ! :lol:

#45 Postby **Steve** » Mon May 15, 2006 8:56 pm

Anyone got a link to FNMOC's OTIS SSTA maps? They changed it up 2 years ago, I found it, now when you go to their site, they show the El Nino from 97 and archived stuff through 2004. Thanks.

Steve

CHRISTY · #46 Postby **CHRISTY** » Tue May 16, 2006 4:23 pm

Hey guys check out these anomalies... :eek:

2005 SST anomalies for May 17!
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.5.17.2005.gif

2006 SST anomalies For May 16!
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.5.16.2006.gif

It looks for sure the Atlantic is Much warmer the 2005!

HurricaneHunter914 · #47 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue May 16, 2006 4:30 pm

Well isn't that lovely. Even if the rain we had today cooled the GOM SSTs the temps are hot.

Extremeweatherguy · #48 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue May 16, 2006 4:34 pm

CHRISTY wrote:Hey guys check out these anomalies...

2005 SST anomalies for May 17!
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.5.17.2005.gif

2006 SST anomalies For May 16!
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.5.16.2006.gif

It looks for sure the Atlantic is Much warmer the 2005!

It is absolutely amazing how much warmer the Gulf is! Anything that comes into the Gulf with little shear is going to explode this season! Also, I doubt we will see the Rita-like weakening before landfall. Texas...get ready!

HurricaneHunter914 · #49 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue May 16, 2006 4:38 pm

Luckily this year though the chances for a gulf storm this year were forecasted at 41% by Dr.Gray.

Stratosphere747 · #50 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Tue May 16, 2006 4:45 pm

Hmm...

My hot tub is set at 102F, and amazingly enough it has yet to maintain a Cat 5. I just wonder if there are other factors involved?

*Sarcasm alert*

HurricaneHunter914 · #51 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue May 16, 2006 4:47 pm

http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tr ... 20x486.jpg

The Atlantic is definitly warming up while the GOM is turning into a pool of red color dye. Maybe someone should go to the GOM and put some blue color dye in it.

HurricaneHunter914 · #52 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue May 16, 2006 5:00 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Looking at this shear it looks, just like the warm temps, low shear is trying to enter the Gulf. Should this be a concern?

Extremeweatherguy · #53 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue May 16, 2006 5:07 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:Luckily this year though the chances for a gulf storm this year were forecasted at 41% by Dr.Gray.

Actually, according to the now 1 1/2 month old April outlook, Dr. gray is predicting the following chances for the GOM:

Chance of AT LEAST one TS landfall = 74% (avg. is 59%)
Chance of AT LEAST one minor hurricane landfall = 61% (avg. is 42%)
Chance of AT LEAST one major hurricane landfall = 47% (avg. is 30%)
Chance of ANY hurricane making a gulf landfall = 79% (avg. is 61%)
Chance of ANY named storm landfall = 95% (avg. is 83%)

These numbers were also before the major GOM warming, so he may have to up the chances in his next forecast.

Link to the complete April 4th, 2006 forecast: http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/for ... april2006/

HurricaneHunter914 · #54 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue May 16, 2006 5:09 pm

Whoa!

So how long will these active hurricane seasons last again?

Extremeweatherguy · #55 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue May 16, 2006 5:11 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

Looking at this shear it looks, just like the warm temps, low shear is trying to enter the Gulf. Should this be a concern?

Shear is always high during the late fall - spring (that is why we are not in "hurricane season"). My belief is that we will see another year of very low shear in the gulf and caribbean as we head into June, July, August and September. As for the lower shear that you say may be heading into the Gulf soon...that will really have no affect on the overall pattern. I will be more concerned about what this map is like in 2-3 weeks.

Extremeweatherguy · #56 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue May 16, 2006 5:12 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:Whoa! So how long will these active hurricane seasons last again?

If this is just a cycle, then we still have 5-10 more years left...if this is a new normal, however, it could go on for many many years to come.

CHRISTY · #57 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 17, 2006 1:29 pm

Current SST'S From different sources!

Carribean SST'S

Atlantic SST Loop.

Hurricane Heat potential...
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/js/hh3.watl.jsmovie.html

Atlantic SST Loop.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/js/sst2.watl.jsmovie.html

Gulf of Mexico SST'S in 120 hrs.
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/aofs_images/aofs_sst_f120_hurr.png

North Atlantic SST'S IN 120 Hrs.
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/aofs_images/aofs_sst_f120_wnatlzoom.png

Current SST anomaly Chart.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.5.16.2006.gif

CHRISTY · #58 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 17, 2006 3:00 pm

benny · #59 Postby **benny** » Wed May 17, 2006 3:09 pm

To add to the list:

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/oper/nat ... _oper0.gif

Right now it shows much warmer than average SSTs in a strip from the Canary Islands to the Leeward Islands. 1C in the deep tropics is a lot! However I think a lot of it will be eroded away by a strong subtropical high forecast to develop by the GFS with strong easterly winds.

CHRISTY · #60 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 17, 2006 3:13 pm

Loop current...

SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic #3

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