Broad area of low pressure devoloping in GOM

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mobilebay
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Broad area of low pressure devoloping in GOM

#1 Postby mobilebay » Tue May 16, 2006 2:09 am

TAFB has mentioned this in the latest discussion they placed it near 23N and 93W. Below is a Nighttime visible loop you can clearly see the circulation in the West GOM.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

I know there is another thread started on this but it was hijacked with radars from the severe weather outbreak in Southern Florida.

Here is the TAFB discussion. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0544.shtml?
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#2 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue May 16, 2006 2:28 am

Its cold core with little to no chance at development.
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#3 Postby mobilebay » Tue May 16, 2006 2:30 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Its cold core with little to no chance at development.

Matt how is it cold core when The TAFB just said surface low forming, and the GFS has been developing this surface low the last several runs? Just because its May don't mean it's Cold core!
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#4 Postby TSmith274 » Tue May 16, 2006 2:36 am

Even though I don't think anything will come of this, and with that thing getting sheared to death and moving FAST, thanks for posting this. That other thread is too long to sift through. Thanks.
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#5 Postby mobilebay » Tue May 16, 2006 2:42 am

TSmith274 wrote:Even though I don't think anything will come of this, and with that thing getting sheared to death and moving FAST, thanks for posting this. That other thread is too long to sift through. Thanks.

Your Quiet welcome. The shear is high, no doubt. However, the Low is moving briskly in the direction of the shear. However, given the time of the year and the shear in place development is highly unlikely. Gives us something to talk about anyway.
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#6 Postby mobilebay » Tue May 16, 2006 3:37 am

Looks almost like a naked swirl. Shear is pushing thunderstorm activity well east of the low center. The circulation seems to be getting more defined.
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#7 Postby mobilebay » Tue May 16, 2006 4:22 am

any more thoughts on this before cycloneye locks this thread? :lol:
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#8 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Tue May 16, 2006 6:19 am

i think a subtropical storm could form???????????
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#9 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue May 16, 2006 6:51 am

a surface low is usually cold core. Only tropical lows are warm core
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#10 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 16, 2006 6:54 am

mobilebay wrote:any more thoughts on this before cycloneye locks this thread? :lol:


I will leave this one open as many replies haved been posted. :)
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#11 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue May 16, 2006 7:10 am

Derek Ortt wrote:a surface low is usually cold core. Only tropical lows are warm core

You said "usually". So there might be an exception for this one. :wink:
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#12 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue May 16, 2006 7:12 am

doubt it..this thing is in 50kt shear right now
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Tue May 16, 2006 7:18 am

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:i think a subtropical storm could form???????????


Don't get your hopes to high. Too much shear, a very hostile environment.
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#14 Postby boca » Tue May 16, 2006 7:25 am

Agreed Hurakan to much shear and moving too quickly.
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#15 Postby boca » Tue May 16, 2006 7:31 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Looks like something is trying to get started just north of the Yucatan moving ENE towards the Florida Straits.
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#16 Postby dcuevas » Tue May 16, 2006 8:06 am

:cry: :lol: :roll: I don't have any experience with this but I trust boca.
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#17 Postby jusforsean » Tue May 16, 2006 8:31 am

might be nothing to develop i dunno but it might as well be because i was hoping for rain but not this much rain damn! :eek:
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#18 Postby tailgater » Tue May 16, 2006 8:36 am

Just a Weak surface low forming along a Cold front(1000's of them a year), It would have to sit there in warm GOM waters for 3 or 4 days(which it won't) break away from the cold front and not get shear apart. Check out the dew points. near this area.
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#19 Postby Air Force Met » Tue May 16, 2006 8:52 am

boca wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Looks like something is trying to get started just north of the Yucatan moving ENE towards the Florida Straits.


If you will overlay the NWS fronts on that loop...you will see what is causing all of the convection.

It is a cold front...with an unstable wave on it....a frontal low.

Nothing...and I mean NOTHING...is trying to get started ANYWHERE in the Gulf.

Every pro-met on the board has said this. Do you guys not trust us anymore...or do you all want something so bad that you all just aren't listening? :lol:
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#20 Postby feederband » Tue May 16, 2006 8:53 am

Air Force Met wrote:
boca wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Looks like something is trying to get started just north of the Yucatan moving ENE towards the Florida Straits.


If you will overlay the NWS fronts on that loop...you will see what is causing all of the convection.

It is a cold front...with an unstable wave on it....a frontal low.

Nothing...and I mean NOTHING...is trying to get started ANYWHERE in the Gulf.

Every pro-met on the board has said this. Do you guys not trust us anymore...or do you all want something so bad that you all just aren't listening? :lol:


What you say.... :wink:
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