If Mount Merapi (Volcano) in Indonesia does blow its top how

[Typhoon_Willie]

will the Atlantic Hurricane season be affected if any. Mount Merapi is a 9700 ft volcano about 250 miles east of Jakarta It has been spewing forth a good amount of ash and some scientists think that the mountain is on the verge of a massive eruption.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060515/ap_ ... ia_volcano

I hope that there will be no massive eruption but that could happen.

[RattleMan]

EDIT: Nevermind, misunderstood

[HURAKAN]

If we compare this possible eruption to Mt. Pinatubo in 1991, then the effect to the hurricane season is basically unnoticeable.

1991:
ATL - 8 NS (Named Storms)
EPAC - 14 NS
WPAC - 31 NS

If Yellowstone explodes then the cyclone activity will be affected, but if Yellowstone explodes no one will worry about cyclone activity.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Ok thanks! I was just curious sense the eruption (if it does occur) may be quite massive and all that ashe may cool down air temps as it were.

[Cape Verde]

The dust cloud would be mostly a southern hemisphere thing. Eventually it all gets dispersed evenly, but at that point a lot of it has settled.

I wouldn't expect any noticeable effect on the Atlantic hurricane season.

[James]

So is this likely to have a massive effect? I notice that Pinatubo put a lid on a lot of activity, but then it was the second largest eruption of the 20th Century.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I notice that Pinatubo put a lid on a lot of activity,

No, it didn't.

[Steve]

I think 1997 was the last year with numerous Pacific Volcanic activity. It at least coincided with a substantial El Nino. I'm not saying one was the cause and the other the effect or whatever, just that it happened.

Steve

[clfenwi]

While the erruption of Pinatubo took place in 1991, its effect on our part of the world occurred later.

In 1992 and 1993, the average temperature in the Northern Hemisphere was reduced 0.5 to 0.6°C and the entire planet was cooled 0.4 to 0.5°C. The maximum reduction in global temperature occurred in August 1992 with a reduction of 0.73°C. The eruption is believed to have influenced such events as 1993 floods along the Mississippi river and the drought in the Sahel region of Africa. The United States experienced its third coldest and third wettest summer in 77 years during 1992.

source: http://geography.about.com/library/weekly/aa030901a.htm

[James]

Ah, I see. OK, thanks.

[Jim Hughes]

I think 1997 was the last year with numerous Pacific Volcanic activity. It at least coincided with a substantial El Nino. I'm not saying one was the cause and the other the effect or whatever, just that it happened.

Steve

A large eruption can have an effect upon the Hadley circulation so this can influence the ENSO. There was no significant volcanic activity in 1997 to trigger an El Nino in my opinion. Alone that is.

I use to monitor volcanic activity thoroughly back then since I believe there could be some kind of relationship. Montserrat's Soufriere Hills was very active during that summer but this was related more towards pyroclastic flows and small ash plumes. Although some occasional high SO2 readings were observed. As were some fairly good eruption plumes.

The name of the other erupting volcano slips me right now but I thought it was a tell tale sign of a developing EL Nino. It wasn't Merapi but it begins with an M. It occurred during early February of 1997 and it was in the SW Pacific . I recall reading about an airplane flying through some ash/much warmer air at some fairly good height. I want to say 35-40,000 feet. (This is not high enough to effect the Hadley Circulation.)


Jim

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

A year after a Volcano erupted in 1815 much of North America had the infamous "year with out a Summer" or "Black Summer" of 1816.

I seriously doubt any effect would show up this year though.

[Aslkahuna]

Pinatubo had it's first eruption in 650 years in 1991. Merapi last erupted in 1994. As a general rule, volcanoes that erupt frequently are less violent than those that erupt at long intervals. Merapi is not likely to be anything near Tambora in 1815. Merapi is much like Mayon in the Philippines-they are both about as active and are extremely danagerous because of their Pyroclastic flows and Lahars. In fact, lahar is an Indonesian word, and with the non European and foreign words in each language excluded, the basic dialect between Indonesian and Tagalog are almost identical.

Steve

[Sean in New Orleans]

Not too much effects on tropics, but, we could have a cooler late Summer, and a cold Winter with snow in unlikely areas.

[crabbyhermit]

If Yellowstone explodes then the cyclone activity will be affected, but if Yellowstone explodes no one will worry about cyclone activity.

Right! I remember a great Yellowstone thread on here maybe a couple years ago, when Mt Somethingorother was blowing off some steam. Really scary stuff! Wonder if it's in the archives....

[benny]

I think 1997 was the last year with numerous Pacific Volcanic activity. It at least coincided with a substantial El Nino. I'm not saying one was the cause and the other the effect or whatever, just that it happened.

Steve

A large eruption can have an effect upon the Hadley circulation so this can influence the ENSO. There was no significant volcanic activity in 1997 to trigger an El Nino in my opinion. Alone that is.

I use to monitor volcanic activity thoroughly back then since I believe there could be some kind of relationship. Montserrat's Soufriere Hills was very active during that summer but this was related more towards pyroclastic flows and small ash plumes. Although some occasional high SO2 readings were observed. As were some fairly good eruption plumes.

The name of the other erupting volcano slips me right now but I thought it was a tell tale sign of a developing EL Nino. It wasn't Merapi but it begins with an M. It occurred during early February of 1997 and it was in the SW Pacific . I recall reading about an airplane flying through some ash/much warmer air at some fairly good height. I want to say 35-40,000 feet. (This is not high enough to effect the Hadley Circulation.)


Jim

As I understand it a significant amount of ash/dust needs to make it into the stratosphere to effect the global temperatures. I believe 1991 was the last time this happen. I also think it is more "effective" at cooling the globe a bit if the volcano is closer to the equator. I can't remember where I read that though. There is a section on hurricanes and volcanoes in the Elsner/Kara book of a few years ago.. Hurricanes of the North Atlantic or something like that...

[Derek Ortt]

Tabmora was also just one category below Yellowstone or Toba

[Jim Hughes]

As I understand it a significant amount of ash/dust needs to make it into the stratosphere to effect the global temperatures. I believe 1991 was the last time this happen. I also think it is more "effective" at cooling the globe a bit if the volcano is closer to the equator. I can't remember where I read that though. There is a section on hurricanes and volcanoes in the Elsner/Kara book of a few years ago.. Hurricanes of the North Atlantic or something like that...

Yes this is true from a tropospheric temperature standpoint but not the stratosphere. You will see a warming there and we saw what a warming in the stratosphere can do during this past winter. Granted this was at the poles and not the tropics or mid latitudes but it has an effect.

I can recall reading some research papers by Maryland's former state climatologist, Alan Robock. I might have the URL's for his papers. A quick google search would turn something up. It's been about eight years or more but I recall him showing graphs involving the warming caused by both Pinatubo and El Chichon. The latter was just as important as Pinatubo. He also talked about weather patterns in the northern hemisphere the following winter.

This is why I became more interested in the stratosphere relationship to both weather and climate patterns.


Jim

[Aslkahuna]

Actually, it's not so much the dust and ash that causes the problem but the Sulphur Dioxide a volcano blows into the atmosphere (34 million metric tons worth in the case of Pinatubo. The SO2 forms Sulfuric acid aerosols which does the dirty work in the atmosphere including doing a major number on the O3 layer. The dust falls out fairly rapidly-in fact, in October 1991 we were getting dust fallout from Pinatubo here in AZ. I was stuck by the obvious dimming of sunlight as well and had a pyranometer graph made up of an early October day pre Pinatubo and one in 1991. The early graph had the typical Bell curve while the 1991 one had a flat top during the three hour period around Local Noon and everywhere the curve was below the early curve. The Sulfuric acid haze also affected nighttime observation of the sky for a number of years afterwards.

Steve

[HurricaneHunter914]

This crazy though. Have you guys noticed that ever since 2004 several natural disasters have occured. They range from Big Major Hurricanes, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Wildfires, Tornado Outbreaks in the U.S and Floods. It is like Mother Nature is trying to get a job that pays her for causing The End Of The World. Now she can add Volcanoes to her reseme.