Being May it looks interesting while it lasts

[Dean4Storms]

Although it is an impressive wave along the ITCZ for this time of year it looks to be warming and should continue on that decline convection wise. Still, could this be a sign of the norm coming off Africa for this year?

[cycloneye]

Although it is an impressive wave along the ITCZ for this time of year it looks to be warming and should continue on that decline convection wise. Still, could this be a sign of the norm coming off Africa for this year?

You said it very good about this being a bad sign of a more active CV season than 2005 was.

[jusforsean]

impresive looking wether it forms or not *** hope its not a sign of the waves to come

[benny]

gonna be a long year if this keeps up:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/h ... _30d.shtml

much different than last year where all the low shear was in the Caribbean/W Atlc...

There is a pattern change coming in the middle of the week.. the subtropical ridge is forecast to get quite strong and really increase the trades across the Atlantic from Wed and beyond.. we haven't seen that pattern in quite a while.

[SouthFloridawx]

gonna be a long year if this keeps up:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/h ... _30d.shtml

much different than last year where all the low shear was in the Caribbean/W Atlc...

There is a pattern change coming in the middle of the week.. the subtropical ridge is forecast to get quite strong and really increase the trades across the Atlantic from Wed and beyond.. we haven't seen that pattern in quite a while.

What does this mean for the atlantic? Specifically what does a pattern like the one describe in your post bring to the atlantic? Low shear values? Wouldn't westerlies cause more shear across the basin?

[CHRISTY]

gonna be a long year if this keeps up:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/h ... _30d.shtml

much different than last year where all the low shear was in the Caribbean/W Atlc...

There is a pattern change coming in the middle of the week.. the subtropical ridge is forecast to get quite strong and really increase the trades across the Atlantic from Wed and beyond.. we haven't seen that pattern in quite a while.

ok benny let me ask you is that good news in your opinion or bad?does it remind you of 2004 or 2005!

[benny]

gonna be a long year if this keeps up:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/h ... _30d.shtml

much different than last year where all the low shear was in the Caribbean/W Atlc...

There is a pattern change coming in the middle of the week.. the subtropical ridge is forecast to get quite strong and really increase the trades across the Atlantic from Wed and beyond.. we haven't seen that pattern in quite a while.

What does this mean for the atlantic? Specifically what does a pattern like the one describe in your post bring to the atlantic? Low shear values? Wouldn't westerlies cause more shear across the basin?

Well right now.. at least during the past 30 days (and more like 60).. the vertical wind shear has been much lower than average in the deep tropical Atlantic south of about 15N. Of course the climatological values are just too strong to permit development no matter how much lower-than average the shear is right now...

But the pattern change is causing a huge surface/low-level high to build for mid/late in the week:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_108m.gif

strong surface high combined with a strong upper trough in the tropical Atlantic = more shear in the deep tropical atlantic. I'm just pointing out it is different than we have seen in quite a while. I'm not sure what it means. We didn't see it much in 2005 that's for sure! I would say 2004 or 1996 is what this year is resembling to me.. but who knows really. The GFS does also hint that shear will be much reduced in the western part of the basin by the weekend.. so I will be curious to see the result... either in the EPAC or SE GOM/NW Carib. I do NOT think anything will happen but the upper winds are making quite a change. I do think that I would be shocked to see 2006 anything like 2004 in terms of the total numbers of storms/hurricane given the pre-season indications but we shall see

[SouthFloridawx]

Thanks for your explination benny. Hopefully we won't see any development in the caribbean or gom any time soon but if the right stuff is there so be it.

[cycloneye]

LSU Infared Image



As expected convection has warmed however still looks fairly interesting in terms of the structure of it.

[Hyperstorm]

I can say that these types of flare-ups in this part of the world, while impressive, are a fairly common occurence this time of the year. This is just a sign that we are getting into the warmer summer months when the ITCZ begins to creep northward and become more active.

SSTs are not really the problem that far south (south of 10N), but environmental conditions as a whole and wave intensities keep this area in check this time of the year. Look up other years satellite pictures from around May and will find similar flare-ups in that area.

We will have a more clear prognostication of the activity in this area in late June and July as we see how the ITCZ activity/position behaves...

[boca]

Even when it goes poof is still amazing that on May 14th we have a spin out there in that locale.

[HurricaneHunter914]

That was the coolest ITCZ I've ever seen. For a minute there I thought it would form.

[gatorcane]

Guys -

Benny's comment about a year looking like 2004 is interesting. Many of us including me have been saying that for a few months now. I have been expecting a fairly active CV season and with waves coming off Africa already this strong a June CV system could be possible.

Over the next couple of weeks I expect the Bermuda High to starting coming out again - as it was very strong in March (remember?). It is out there still (it just took a month-of-leave in April)

[CHRISTY]

we will have watch what happens with the bermuda high in the coming weeks...i do agree with benny about 2006 looking similar to 2004.for now its just a wait and see game!

[Anthonyl]

Two things folks , it looks pretty ominous especially seeing another potent system that will be exiting the COA in such rapid fashion so early at this time, that the CV season will be and may very well produce a historic season for that region. But to cap off my immediate concerns is the below average shear values that have persisted during this climatologically unfavorable period for tropical storm formation in the Atlantic. Ideally shear levels should be much higher than what we are seeing now and begs to reason that if it is like this now what may the values be during the more climatological months of this rapidly approaching 2006 hurricane season.

[CHRISTY]

Two things folks , it looks pretty ominous especially seeing another potent system that will be exiting the COA in such rapid fashion so early at this time, that the CV season will be and may very well produce a historic season for that region. But to cap off my immediate concerns is the below average shear values that have persisted during this climatologically unfavorable period for tropical storm formation in the Atlantic. Ideally shear levels should be much higher than what we are seeing now and begs to reason that if it is like this now what may the values be during the more climatological months of this rapidly approaching 2006 hurricane season.

indeed Anthony...very scary!

[Jam151]

Man if you guys think this weak little wave is nerve racking then your lucky you don't live in Hong Kong right now. Everyone here needs to try and toughen up because August and September only gets worse and thats where the real nerve racking drama sets in. People are getting too excited by a little puny Mid May wave. This is all too funny to me.

[CrazyC83]

Pretty solid system for 6°N...

[Ivan14]

Storm2K will be very active come September.

[caribepr]

wow that looks very nice......however I wouldn't go buying plywood just yet it will probably poof but still it looks real nice

You SHOULD buy plywood, or already have it (or whatever you plan on using for window protection! Not for this system necessarily