What is my chance of Having a TS or Hurricane in JUNE?

[gatorcane]

These statistics are based on the year 1944-1999. Of course, it is climatology so take it with a grain of salt . New members can educate themselves on hurricane climatology as we go through the season

I will post a new graphic for each month as we go through the season.

Compliments to the NHC for these graphics:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/ns_prob_june.gif

[HurricaneHunter914]

Depends on how good the conditions are at that time if they are bad probably nothing will form, if they are okay a depression could form, if they are fair a tropical storm could form, if they are good a hurricane could form, and if they are perfect a major could form.

[gatorcane]

Depends on how good the conditions are at that time if they are bad probably nothing will form, if they are okay a depression could form, if they are fair a tropical storm could form, if they are good a hurricane could form, and if they are perfect a major could form

Of course but STATISTICALLY the likely area is the GOM, especially the western GOM and the NW Caribbean for June. Also the area of the Carolinas has a relatively higher probability (I didn't know that, interesting...). I don't believe we have ever seen a major hurricane in the Atlantic Basin in June.

[Derek Ortt]

Audrey in 1957 was almost certainly a major in June

[gatorcane]

Audrey in 1957 was almost certainly a major in June

Really? I thought it only maxed out at 145mph:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Audrey

[gatorcane]

Nevermind - I was thinking CAT 5s. Anyway Audrey was a powerful hurricane indeed....

[Audrey2Katrina]

Nevermind - I was thinking CAT 5s. Anyway Audrey was a powerful hurricane indeed....

Quite possibly the biggest killer in US storm history from the time of the New England Storm of '38 until Katrina.

A2K

[HurricaneHunter914]

Some other hurricane will probably take Katrina out of the winner's circle by August though.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Some other hurricane will probably take Katrina out of the winner's circle by August though.

Well, I'd hardly classify the calamity Katrina precipitated a "winner" of anything; but getting more to the point of your post, I seriously doubt it.

A2K

[Opal storm]

Some other hurricane will probably take Katrina out of the winner's circle by August though.

Highly unlikely.

[MGC]

I'd give the chance of a TC forming in June at 50/50. Chances we see another June hurricane like Audrey are very remote.......

[HurricaneHunter914]

Some other hurricane will probably take Katrina out of the winner's circle by August though.

Highly unlikely.

There is a possibility though. If Miami gets hit by a Cat-4 this year the damge could surpass Katrina.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Some other hurricane will probably take Katrina out of the winner's circle by August though.

Highly unlikely.

There is a possibility though. If Miami gets hit by a Cat-4 this year the damge could surpass Katrina.

If a Cat. 4/5 hits either...Miami, Tampa, Houston/Galveston, New Orleans, or New york/Boston it will surpass Katrina (If it hits directly...and especially if it is a large storm).

[Opal storm]

Some other hurricane will probably take Katrina out of the winner's circle by August though.

Highly unlikely.

There is a possibility though. If Miami gets hit by a Cat-4 this year the damge could surpass Katrina.

If a Cat. 4/5 hits either...Miami, Tampa, Houston/Galveston, New Orleans, or New york/Boston it will surpass Katrina (If it hits directly...and especially if it is a large storm).

I'm not saying it's impossible but it probably won't happen.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looking at the SSTs it prbably might happen.

[benny]

These statistics are based on the year 1944-1999. Of course, it is climatology so take it with a grain of salt . New members can educate themselves on hurricane climatology as we go through the season

I will post a new graphic for each month as we go through the season.

Compliments to the NHC for these graphics:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/ns_prob_june.gif

Also there is a probability for Hurricane as well in June..
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/h_prob_june.gif

I didn't see that link before. The probabilities are low though.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Looking at the SSTs it prbably might happen.

Good Lord, this almost is taking on the tenor of a wish cast. I think everyone acknowledges that almost anything is possible. But the simple fact is that the odds of it happening are greatly against it. Back-to-Back worst storms in history haven't happened that I know of--again not that it's impossible... only VERY extraordinarily unlikely.

A2K

[CHRISTY]

Looking at the SSTs it prbably might happen.

Good Lord, this almost is taking on the tenor of a wish cast. I think everyone acknowledges that almost anything is possible. But the simple fact is that the odds of it happening are greatly against it. Back-to-Back worst storms in history haven't happened that I know of--again not that it's impossible... only VERY extraordinarily unlikely.

A2K

actually thats we all said after 2004 ...another season this active back to back isnt possible!and look what happend in 2005.

[gatorcane]

please note that the eastern GOM and west coast of Florida are very at-risk in June. Also other areas of western and northern GOM are as well.

[JonathanBelles]

thanx boca jkjk
-jd