GFS showing tropical development?

#81 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat May 13, 2006 4:25 pm

i'm watching what i wish for,but im hoping for a TD into tampa for the rain and excitement

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #82 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat May 13, 2006 4:27 pm

Me to that would be interesting. Just a little something...

#83 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat May 13, 2006 4:30 pm

continues to spin up lows in the gulf

Link

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #84 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat May 13, 2006 4:32 pm

At 384 hours theres no reason to fly off the mountain over.

#85 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat May 13, 2006 4:34 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:At 384 hours theres no reason to fly off the mountain over.

round and round we go...believe me I know. Ive said it myself. I didnt know anyone was going over a mountain about it?

CHRISTY · #86 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat May 13, 2006 4:38 pm

Here's the (NAM) Looks to me like several impulses of low pressure will ride across the front into southflorida.

Link

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #87 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat May 13, 2006 4:41 pm

Could be frontal boundry with many waves of low pressure. Which means its like extratropical.

#88 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat May 13, 2006 4:42 pm

Hmmmm....

this situation in the GOM seems interesting :think:

Nope wind shear is too high and it is too early...water temps are running around 78-80 in that part of the GOM which is just barely high enough for any development

CHRISTY · #89 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat May 13, 2006 4:43 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Could be frontal boundry with many waves of low pressure. Which means its like extratropical.

Yes Matt!

Extremeweatherguy · #90 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat May 13, 2006 5:37 pm

ivanhater wrote:continues to spin up lows in the gulf

Link

I hope this is right! I will be in Florida on the 29th!

wxmann_91 · #91 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat May 13, 2006 5:38 pm

I have learned never to trust the GFS beyond 180 hr.

cheezyWXguy · #92 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sat May 13, 2006 5:48 pm

a bit off-topic but i noticed a tropical wave around 42w, 8N theres a tropical wave lifting noorth of the ITCZ...is it possible it could move into a more favorable invironment?Here's the loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

#93 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat May 13, 2006 6:18 pm

A future cold core system is supposed to develope according to the cyclone phase and analysis page. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 12/86.html

Again non-tropical cold core and probably along a frontal boundry expected to arrive in florida next week.

cheezyWXguy · #94 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sat May 13, 2006 7:19 pm

Thats not the only thing out there...it appears there maybe a tropical wave moving into the southeastern Carribean and is featured in the TWD...

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED ALONG 43W S OF 9N BASED UPON
CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS NEW
POSITION ALSO CONSIDERS CONTINUITY OF THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
WAVE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...THIS WAVE AXIS
POSITION IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 40W-43W.

If anyone could tell me there opinions on this one that'd be nice...

Kennethb · #95 Postby **Kennethb** » Sat May 13, 2006 9:25 pm

While the specifics of the GFS beyond 7 days is suspect, it is probably smelling out something. It is not too unusual to have some type of early development in the GOM, especially with the fronts that are making and look to continue to make their way pretty far south.

June should prove an interesting month. I expect a hybrid low/TS will develop in the GOM that will scare many people and start the season off.

It is hard to believe that we are approaching the start of another tropical season, when the effects of last season are still visible. There are houses in the 9th Ward and St. Bernard Parish where nobody has ever returned.

#96 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sat May 13, 2006 10:29 pm

Excerpt from the 8:05 p.m. TWD:

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W S OF 9N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY DUE TO WEAK RIDGING TO THE N. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
FEATURE TO THE W DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4.5N-8.5N BETWEEN 40W-45W. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE FROM
THE WAVE COULD IMPACT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE TUE INTO WED.

caribepr · #97 Postby **caribepr** » Sun May 14, 2006 1:10 am

What happened to using small images or links? It's early days!

cheezyWXguy · #98 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sun May 14, 2006 11:49 am

It looks like within the next 72 hrs the GFS forms a second low over the Yucatan and brings it into south florida....
60
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _060.shtml
66
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _066.shtml
72
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

#99 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sun May 14, 2006 11:52 am

cheezywxman wrote:It looks like within the next 72 hrs the GFS forms a second low over the Yucatan and brings it into south florida....
60
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _060.shtml
66
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _066.shtml
72
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

Interesting let's see if it continues to show up in future runs, not that far out

#100 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun May 14, 2006 12:02 pm

The most likely scenario for this low pressure area is that, low pressure will form and move along the frontal boundary that is supposed to stall.

Provided by - NWS Southern Region HQ - Print

000
FXUS62 KMFL 141452
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1052 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE JUST TO OUR EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS (SEABREEZES ON BOTH
COASTS), SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY UPDATES SINCE ALL THIS IS
ADVERTISED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. STILL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE NORTHWEST TO KEEP THE RED GLAG GOING THERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

..MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS ON THE HORIZON...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTROL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AND
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND LOW ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWAT SHY OF
AN INCH ACCORDING TO GPS MET DATA)...EXPECT FULL SUNSHINE ALL DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S INTERIOR...BUT SEA
BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 80S THERE.
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE TRANQUIL AS WELL...BEFORE THINGS
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY THEREAFTER.

ON MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
BROAD CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL ACT TO PUSH A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FL. MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA ON DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING DRAMATICALLY FROM AROUND ONE INCH MONDAY MORNING
TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY MON NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY COULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
THUS...INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

GFS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
FL MONDAY NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW RATHER HIGH SHEAR VALUES IN A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA MON NIGHT...SO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE A GOOD
BET...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SHOULD
THIS SCENARIO PLAY OUT. THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
TUESDAY...STALLING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS FLOW
BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE DEEP WITH A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...SUPPORTING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCALLY ON TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TIMING
IS UNCERTAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT THU-FRI...WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE POSSIBLY RETURNING AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

GFS showing tropical development?

Who is online