Becoming better organized with a MLC forming at 8.5 north/96.5 west. In deeper convection is starting to form over it. Meaning lower pressure=it will try to get to the surface. Could be a depression next 36 hours if it keeps up.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html
EPAC Low
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HurricaneHunter914
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This is looking very interesting...Already starting to develop low pressure with some arcing. Maybe something to watch. Maybe just maybe the start of the Eastern Pacific butt kicking of the Atlantic after last year.
I wouldn't be so sure about the EPAC kicking the Atlantics butt. I think it's the opposite way around.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This is looking very interesting...Already starting to develop low pressure with some arcing. Maybe something to watch. Maybe just maybe the start of the Eastern Pacific butt kicking of the Atlantic after last year.
Yeah like Adrian on May 17 last year.. that didn't work out
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HurricaneHunter914
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Also I'm not so suprised a system has formed in the EPAC. Since the EPAC season starts next week and the water temps are HOT! Aletta doesn't seem so far away.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/IR4/20.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/IR4/20.jpg
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HurricaneHunter914
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whereverwx
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NONAME
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Although it would probley consalitdate some if it form sry for my spelling. English isn't one of my good subjects. I get a Better grade in german haha.
Last edited by NONAME on Fri May 12, 2006 10:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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HurricaneHunter914
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HURAKAN
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FROM OUR FRIENDS IN ACCUWX:
Today's Discussion
Hurricane Season is about to start in the Eastern Pacific Ocean
Posted: 12-MAY-2006 6:26pm EDT
Special Discussion by Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski.
We have been watching an area of low pressure the past few days that rolled off the coast of central America earlier in the week. The low pressure area is roughtly near 8 north and 97 west or 345 miles south southeast of Acapulco Mexico. The system is moving to the west at about 12 mph. During Friday afternoon thunderstorms have increased over this low pressure area and if a rotory circulation can evolve underneath these thunderstorms a tropical depression will form within the next 24 to 36 hours. This would be the first tropical depression of the season. Other satellite products show no signs of lower level circulation as of Friday evening. The lower to upper level shear remains less than 10 knots south of 10 north. Shear values increase further north. But, so far this feature has been on a westerly course which will keep it south of the stronger shear. Water temperatures underneath this feature are roughly 27 degrees C which is marginal for development. There is a general swath of 26-27 degree water temperature to the west of this feature. However, the depth of warm water is significant enough to support development. it will be due in a large part to the marginal water temperatures.
Today's Discussion
Hurricane Season is about to start in the Eastern Pacific Ocean
Posted: 12-MAY-2006 6:26pm EDT
Special Discussion by Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski.
We have been watching an area of low pressure the past few days that rolled off the coast of central America earlier in the week. The low pressure area is roughtly near 8 north and 97 west or 345 miles south southeast of Acapulco Mexico. The system is moving to the west at about 12 mph. During Friday afternoon thunderstorms have increased over this low pressure area and if a rotory circulation can evolve underneath these thunderstorms a tropical depression will form within the next 24 to 36 hours. This would be the first tropical depression of the season. Other satellite products show no signs of lower level circulation as of Friday evening. The lower to upper level shear remains less than 10 knots south of 10 north. Shear values increase further north. But, so far this feature has been on a westerly course which will keep it south of the stronger shear. Water temperatures underneath this feature are roughly 27 degrees C which is marginal for development. There is a general swath of 26-27 degree water temperature to the west of this feature. However, the depth of warm water is significant enough to support development. it will be due in a large part to the marginal water temperatures.
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SouthFloridawx
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130237
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 13 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0245 UTC.
ITCZ...6N77W 8N97W 10N110W 9N130W
6N140W. SCATTERED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 200 NM OF 8N97W.
...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 15N117W. CONFLUENT FLOW INTO
THE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF MOSTLY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE AIR FROM 13N-29N
EAST OF 122W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TO
ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IS
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WEST 10 KT IS ALONG 127W/128W FROM 5N-12N.
RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N135W...AND EXTENDS
SOUTHEASTWARD TO 22N120W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF
17N WEST OF 120W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH SUN
ALLOWING FOR TYPICAL NE TRADES TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
MID/UPPER RIDGING WITH MEAN AXIS THROUGH 32N118W 22N118W 13N118W
COVERS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW
PRESENT NORTH OF 13N...EXCEPT WEST OF LINE 20N140W TO 32N135W
WHERE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS NOTED AHEAD OF A CUT-OF ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL VORTEX WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 28N143W. SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE VORTEX CONTINUES TO DRAW UP AMPLE
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE BEING CHANNELED EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
EASTWARD ACROSS 140W. PATCHES OF MOSTLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA NORTH OF
12N.
A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING W ABOUT 10-15 KT IS ANALYZED NEAR
8N97W.
$$
ORRES
AXPZ20 KNHC 130237
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 13 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0245 UTC.
ITCZ...6N77W 8N97W 10N110W 9N130W
6N140W. SCATTERED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 200 NM OF 8N97W.
...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 15N117W. CONFLUENT FLOW INTO
THE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF MOSTLY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE AIR FROM 13N-29N
EAST OF 122W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TO
ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IS
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WEST 10 KT IS ALONG 127W/128W FROM 5N-12N.
RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N135W...AND EXTENDS
SOUTHEASTWARD TO 22N120W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF
17N WEST OF 120W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH SUN
ALLOWING FOR TYPICAL NE TRADES TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
MID/UPPER RIDGING WITH MEAN AXIS THROUGH 32N118W 22N118W 13N118W
COVERS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW
PRESENT NORTH OF 13N...EXCEPT WEST OF LINE 20N140W TO 32N135W
WHERE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS NOTED AHEAD OF A CUT-OF ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL VORTEX WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 28N143W. SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE VORTEX CONTINUES TO DRAW UP AMPLE
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE BEING CHANNELED EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
EASTWARD ACROSS 140W. PATCHES OF MOSTLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA NORTH OF
12N.
A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING W ABOUT 10-15 KT IS ANALYZED NEAR
8N97W.
$$
ORRES
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
It has developed a LLC based on quickscats...This should be at least a invest.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds14.png
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds14.png
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Update 1#/Tropical distrabance/12am pst/5-13-2006
Over the last 12 hours the area of low pressure has become more organized over the Eastern Pacific near 9 north/96 west...This area most likely is a mlc at this time. With deep convection forming around it. The outflow pattern looks faverable at this time. This low has a pressure of 1008 millibars...In latest quickscats show it maybe forming a LLC. GFS/CMC models show a slow west-northwest track over the next 48 hours...But on the other hand shear levels have increased from the northeast of the system pulling over the system Upper level enviroment could become less faverable for development.
Development into a depression durning the next 24 to 36 hour is fair.
Forecaster Matthew
This is not a offical forecast
Over the last 12 hours the area of low pressure has become more organized over the Eastern Pacific near 9 north/96 west...This area most likely is a mlc at this time. With deep convection forming around it. The outflow pattern looks faverable at this time. This low has a pressure of 1008 millibars...In latest quickscats show it maybe forming a LLC. GFS/CMC models show a slow west-northwest track over the next 48 hours...But on the other hand shear levels have increased from the northeast of the system pulling over the system Upper level enviroment could become less faverable for development.
Development into a depression durning the next 24 to 36 hour is fair.
Forecaster Matthew
This is not a offical forecast
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Epsilon_Fan
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