Dry May has ended

#21 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri May 12, 2006 6:38 pm

ivanhater wrote:GFS is showing rain for south Florida with many lows(maybe tropical down the road doubt it but who knows) crossing the state

that would be good. Would kinda be cool if May 2006 ended up like 2005. Above average rainfall.

<RICKY>

#22 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri May 12, 2006 6:40 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
ivanhater wrote:GFS is showing rain for south Florida with many lows(maybe tropical down the road doubt it but who knows) crossing the state

that would be good. Would kinda be cool if May 2006 ended up like 2005. Above average rainfall.

<RICKY>

ya, you all need to rain more than I do

#23 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri May 12, 2006 6:48 pm

True. In the spirit of the topic of this thread, I wonder what all this could mean for the hurricane season. 2004 had a very dry may and strong ridge forced frances and jeanne into east Florida. Then 2005 ended up with a very wet May and still got hit by hurricanes so I guess we will have to wait yet again and see :roll:

<RICKY>

#24 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri May 12, 2006 6:50 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:True. In the spirit of the topic of this thread, I wonder what all this could mean for the hurricane season. 2004 had a very dry may and strong ridge forced frances and jeanne into east Florida. Then 2005 ended up with a very wet May and still got hit by hurricanes so I guess we will have to wait yet again and see

<RICKY>

lol. I hear you on that. Our coastline is huge, someone if Florida is bound to get hit hard again

Patrick99 · #25 Postby **Patrick99** » Fri May 12, 2006 7:22 pm

boca_chris wrote:This is the last comment I will make on this thread as a dry May has already not happened with the good rains in Central and North Florida Mon. of this week and now South Florida....

I still haven't seen one drop of rain here in South Dade....I can't speak for Palm Beach.

It feels ridiculously humid, but no rain.

#26 Postby **Windtalker1** » Fri May 12, 2006 8:13 pm

Still only 1/10" in Davie....maybe by 5/20 all heck will break loose.

benny · #27 Postby **benny** » Fri May 12, 2006 10:12 pm

ivanhater wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:True. In the spirit of the topic of this thread, I wonder what all this could mean for the hurricane season. 2004 had a very dry may and strong ridge forced frances and jeanne into east Florida. Then 2005 ended up with a very wet May and still got hit by hurricanes so I guess we will have to wait yet again and see

<RICKY>

lol. I hear you on that. Our coastline is huge, someone if Florida is bound to get hit hard again

The Lushine study was for South Florida.. south of Tampa... not including any of N Florida or the panhandle...

CHRISTY · #28 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat May 13, 2006 3:58 am

Looks like we finally might get a real soaking in south florida... :rain:

000
FXUS62 KMFL 130744
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
344 AM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS MOST AREAS NOW INTO THE 50S...EXCEPT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST. GPS MET DATA SHOWS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE LAST EVENING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FL...WITH
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO JUST BELOW ONE INCH AT MIAMI AND
ONLY AROUND A HALF INCH NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SO A DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR
THE AREA UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. THIS DRY PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...NOT GOOD FOR THE FIRE
DANGER.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF A LARGE CUT OFF LOW
NOW IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ACT TO DRAW
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE MONDAY ON A
STRENGTHENING MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. GFS CONTINUES TO PAINT A WET
PICTURE TUE-WED...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
THEN...SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AS WELL. THERE LOOKS TO BE MUCH
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH THIS NEXT FRONT (PWAT
POSSIBLY NEAR 2 INCHES)...SO PROSPECTS FOR RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
(WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY) AREA WIDE LOOK RATHER GOOD AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY...AND WE CAN
CONTINUE AN UPWARD TREND AS TIME APPROACHES SHOULD THIS TREND
CONTINUE.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLD FRONT CLEARING SOUTH FLORIDA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE LATE NEXT WEEK.

Scorpion · #29 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat May 13, 2006 8:14 am

Ugh. Hopefully not. I hate prolonged rain.

HurricaneHunter914 · #30 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat May 13, 2006 8:15 am

Why? Do you like the wildfires Scorpion cause I don't.

#31 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat May 13, 2006 1:09 pm

Gotta love those graphics CHRISTY... I hope we get some rain next week like the models are showing.

CHRISTY · #32 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat May 13, 2006 1:49 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:Gotta love those graphics CHRISTY... I hope we get some rain next week like the models are showing.

thanks!

CHRISTY · #33 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat May 13, 2006 2:41 pm

Rain still looks to be on the way for SouthFlorida...

000
FXUS62 KMFL 131856
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
256 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT OVER THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES
SOUTHEAST. BY THE END OF SUNDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA IN THE ATLANTIC RETURNING OUR FLOW
MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH LATER TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASE OF MEAN LAYER
MOISTURE. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE UP TO CHC CATEGORY BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL DROP OFF AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
DECREASING MOISTURE. GFS TRIES TO FORM A LOW OVER THE NE GULF
EARLY TUESDAY BUT LOOKS A BIT TOO OVERDONE. ETA12 DOES DOT SHOW
THIS LOW AT ALL. AFTER NEXT COLD FRONT, IT COOLS DOWN AGAIN WITH A
DROP OF RH ALSO

CHRISTY · #34 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat May 13, 2006 4:01 pm

bump! what you guys think on our rain chances?

#35 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat May 13, 2006 4:03 pm

I think the rain chances continue to go up with each day. By June South Florida will be in the regime where we get hit right around 3-4pm everday. 8-)

#36 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat May 13, 2006 4:13 pm

benny wrote:
ivanhater wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:True. In the spirit of the topic of this thread, I wonder what all this could mean for the hurricane season. 2004 had a very dry may and strong ridge forced frances and jeanne into east Florida. Then 2005 ended up with a very wet May and still got hit by hurricanes so I guess we will have to wait yet again and see

<RICKY>

lol. I hear you on that. Our coastline is huge, someone if Florida is bound to get hit hard again

The Lushine study was for South Florida.. south of Tampa... not including any of N Florida or the panhandle...

?? I dont know what a study has to do with my statement :think:

CHRISTY · #37 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat May 13, 2006 8:37 pm

GFS IS SHOWING A REAL GOOD CHANCE OF RANDFALL FOR SOUTHFLORIDA...LESS SEE IF IT ACTUALLY OCCURS.

CHRISTY · #38 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat May 13, 2006 9:02 pm

Here's another view of the Heavy Rainfall across Southflorida Show here by the GFS...Lets see if it Occurs.

mike815 · #39 Postby **mike815** » Sat May 13, 2006 9:17 pm

yeahhhhh im looking forward to it sick and tired of the smoke

HurricaneHunter914 · #40 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat May 13, 2006 9:47 pm

I know and it just keeps on gettiing HOT!

Dry May has ended

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