EPAC Low

[NONAME]

The Eastern pacific is actully in a MJO phase right now too

[NONAME]

This low reminds me a lot of adrian last year just look at the Cyclone report from it and it sounds like what is happinging here.

[HurricaneHunter914]

This EPAC low really deserves an Invest right now. Very nice looking system.

[HURAKAN]

This EPAC low really deserves an Invest right now. Very nice looking system.

LETS NOT GET AHEAD OF OURSELVES HERE. THE SYSTEM IS VERY, VERY POORLY ORGANIZED AND AN INVEST ISN'T NECESSARY AT THE MOMENT.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Whoops I didn't see the updated version of the system.

[HurricaneJoe22]

still looks disorganized

[CHRISTY]

I think we might have somthing here trying to develope.....Invest soon?
Its been flareing up the past couple of days!

[gatorcane]

It definitely is far enough north - I'm not sure what that prior comment was all about. The only thing it has going against it is climatology since the EPAC rarely gets started before May 15th and May 15th is Mon....I'd say give it a few days and we may have something....

Now what is INTERESTING is where it would go. There are two strong troughs expected to dig down into the GOM and East coast of the US this weekend and early next week. We could have a situation like last year - where a system in the EPAC gets pulled NE and then ENE into the Caribbean and out into the far Atlantic....we shall see...

Any thoughts on this movement possibility?

[Ivanhater]

man, it is exploding!

[CHRISTY]

This thing looks alot better today....

[GeneratorPower]

I would put $10 on some sort of development.

[CHRISTY]

THERE IS LOW PRESSURE HERE NOW....INVEST SOON!

[SouthFloridawx]

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121612
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAY 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

ITCZ...
AXIS OF ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W 9N95W 10N108W 9N117W 9N127W
5N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM
S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 8N85W 6N79W
...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 129W-132W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
103W-108W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 15N117W. CONFLUENT FLOW
INTO THE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF
MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE AIR FROM
13N-29N EAST OF 122W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA TO ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ
IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WEST 10 KT IS ALONG 127W/128W FROM 5N-12N.
RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N135W...AND EXTENDS
SOUTHEASTWARD TO 22N120W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF
17N WEST OF 120W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH SUN
ALLOWING FOR TYPICAL NE TRADES TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

MID/UPPER RIDGING WITH MEAN AXIS THROUGH 32N118W 22N118W 13N118W
COVERS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW
PRESENT NORTH OF 13N...EXCEPT WEST OF LINE 20N140W TO 32N135W
WHERE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS NOTED AHEAD OF A CUT-OF ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL VORTEX WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 28N143W. SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE VORTEX CONTINUES TO DRAW UP AMPLE
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE BEING CHANNELED EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
EASTWARD ACROSS 140W. PATCHES OF MOSTLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA NORTH OF
12N.

E OF 110W...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA WITH AN
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER LOCATED OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA. AN
ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTH-NORTHWEST
ACROSS MEXICO. THE RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE OVER PANAMA. ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS ADVECTING
PATCHES OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ OUT AHEAD OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE UNDER WEST OF 110W
TOWARDS NORTHERN MEXICO. A JET STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS FROM
14N110W NORTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS MEXICO AT 18N104W. MAXIMUM WINDS
ARE IN THE RANGE OF 60-90 KT ALONG THE JET CORE. A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT NEAR 3N105W.
CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE ALONG THE ITCZ EAST OF 104W DUE
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIDGE. ALSO...A 1008 MB
SURFACE LOW MOVING W ABOUT 10-15 KT IS ANALYZED NEAR 9N97W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW IS
NOTED FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 96W-100W. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND FOR THE MOST PART ALSO INDICATE THAT THE LOW NEAR
9N97W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD DURING THESE SAME NEXT FEW
DAYS. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
THIS LOW. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ON THE ACTIVE SIDE ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK SURFACE IS ALONG 108W FROM
6N-13N ALSO MOVING WEST ABOUT 10-15 KT. IT IS HELPING TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W-108W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND AND DRY STABLE CONDITIONS COVER THE AREA SOUTH OF
ABOUT 5N.

$$
AGUIRRE

[CHRISTY]

This thing is really exploding now...

[Ivan14]

Man look at this thing EXPLODE!!!!!!!!!!!

[Epsilon_Fan]

This thing is a BIG blob now... I can't see something not coming out of this

[Ivanhater]

are we looking at the future Aletta?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Nice outflow out of all quads. Still has to develop a LLC but it would not suprize me at all if it did.

[Ivanhater]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is looking very interesting...Already starting to develop low pressure with some arcing. Maybe something to watch. Maybe just maybe the start of the Eastern Pacific butt kicking of the Atlantic after last year.