NOAA'S May update of ENSO=Neutral next 3-6 months

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu May 11, 2006 8:37 am

NOAA'S May Update of ENSO

Well for me it's no surprise this may update from NOAA as the data has suggested in recent weeks that La Nina has been dying with time.

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu May 11, 2006 4:18 pm

Wow I can't believe that no replies haved occured to this important news.

#3 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Thu May 11, 2006 4:43 pm

I'll reply! Three months of La Neutral. I suppose to most people it's something they already knew. Odd there are no replies, though.

#4 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu May 11, 2006 4:43 pm

I think it was quite expected around here. Seeing the conditions plus looking at ENSO models I kind of figured it would happen.

NCHurricane · #5 Postby **NCHurricane** » Thu May 11, 2006 4:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:Wow I can't believe that no replies haved occured to this important news.

You guys here at Storm2K keep us all so well-informed, that we knew it before NOAA did. :lol:

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu May 11, 2006 4:56 pm

NCHurricane wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Wow I can't believe that no replies haved occured to this important news.

You guys here at Storm2K keep us all so well-informed, that we knew it before NOAA did.

That is so true.

Aquawind · #7 Postby **Aquawind** » Thu May 11, 2006 6:09 pm

Bingo..

Next...

benny · #8 Postby **benny** » Thu May 11, 2006 8:22 pm

NCHurricane wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Wow I can't believe that no replies haved occured to this important news.

You guys here at Storm2K keep us all so well-informed, that we knew it before NOAA did.

Knew before NOAA did??? That's an amusing statement to say the least...

It is interesting that even though the Nino 3.4 temps have gone to neutral.. the atmosphere still has a lot of La Nina characteristics.. see:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wo ... I/comp.gif

"In the context of recent negative MEI values, this section features a comparison figure of weak-moderate La Niña events since 1950. The most recent MEI value has dropped a bit further to -.59, while its rank has dropped to 16th lowest, the lowest rank since Jan/Feb 2001, clearly below the weak La Niña threshold for ranked MEI values during this season. Compared to the "pack" of four comparable modest La Niña events depicted above (1960-1, 1984-5, 1995-6, and 2001-2), it has followed the behavior of 1995-6 more than that of the other events. All of the La Niña events depicted in this figure were similar to each other with peak MEI values from -0.5 to -0.7 see numerical values of the MEI timeseries). It is also worth noting that three out of four events continued as weak-moderate La Niña events into the next calendar year, with the exception of 2001"

As long as the atmosphere stays in a La-Ninaesque manner.. I'm not worried at all. How do you forecast that though? hmmm.

Extremeweatherguy · #9 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu May 11, 2006 8:33 pm

well there goes the ideas of an east coast year. With neutral conditions...the gulf will be the target yet again.

NCHurricane · #10 Postby **NCHurricane** » Thu May 11, 2006 10:09 pm

benny wrote:
NCHurricane wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Wow I can't believe that no replies haved occured to this important news.

You guys here at Storm2K keep us all so well-informed, that we knew it before NOAA did.

Knew before NOAA did??? That's an amusing statement to say the least...

That was the intent. Glad you liked it. 8-)

#11 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu May 11, 2006 10:10 pm

we rock

CHRISTY · #12 Postby **CHRISTY** » Thu May 11, 2006 10:11 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:well there goes the ideas of an east coast year. With neutral conditions...the gulf will be the target yet again.

Actually we had Neutral conditions in 2005!and look what happend.

bocadad · #13 Postby **bocadad** » Thu May 11, 2006 10:53 pm

benny wrote:Knew before NOAA did??? That's an amusing statement to say the least...

It is interesting that even though the Nino 3.4 temps have gone to neutral.. the atmosphere still has a lot of La Nina characteristics.. see:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/comp.gif

"In the context of recent negative MEI values, this section features a comparison figure of weak-moderate La Niña events since 1950. The most recent MEI value has dropped a bit further to -.59, while its rank has dropped to 16th lowest, the lowest rank since Jan/Feb 2001, clearly below the weak La Niña threshold for ranked MEI values during this season. Compared to the "pack" of four comparable modest La Niña events depicted above (1960-1, 1984-5, 1995-6, and 2001-2), it has followed the behavior of 1995-6 more than that of the other events. All of the La Niña events depicted in this figure were similar to each other with peak MEI values from -0.5 to -0.7 see numerical values of the MEI timeseries). It is also worth noting that three out of four events continued as weak-moderate La Niña events into the next calendar year, with the exception of 2001"

As long as the atmosphere stays in a La-Ninaesque manner.. I'm not worried at all. How do you forecast that though? hmmm.

Unless I am mistaken, this is what CVW has been saying. A neutral cool pattern with La Nina overtones, which is the basis for the split forecast. Cape Verde season threatening the east coast states north of Florida, especially with a continued negative NAO pattern followed by late season activity in the Caribbean posing the greatest threat to Florida. If the current pattern holds, of course. At least he was right in predicting months ago that La Nina would not last the season.

Extremeweatherguy · #14 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu May 11, 2006 10:56 pm

CHRISTY wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:well there goes the ideas of an east coast year. With neutral conditions...the gulf will be the target yet again.

Actually we had Neutral conditions in 2005!and look what happend.

exactly..it was a gulf year. I think it will be the same this year.

#15 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu May 11, 2006 10:56 pm

how many bocas are there on this board now - if I would have known this I would have picked another name

BocaDude
BocaGirl
Boca_chris
Boca
BocaDad

I think there are a few more that I haven't seen in a while :roll:

Anyway Bocadad welcome

This board is a blast and you will get addicted soon!

Yes you bring some good points up but it is tough to generalize what will happen this early. Actually La Nina may be getting replaced by an El Nino as we speak and some speculate we will see a strong el nino by the end of the summer. We shall see.

Clint_TX · #16 Postby **Clint_TX** » Fri May 12, 2006 6:10 am

Boy...some people

Ivan14 · #17 Postby **Ivan14** » Fri May 12, 2006 2:22 pm

Boca chris why do you think there will be an El Nino?

#18 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Fri May 12, 2006 4:56 pm

Was 1996 a neutral year, or a La Nina year? I know there was a negative NAO that year, and I think ENSO was neutral (though not sure). I also know it was a wet gloomy Summer in the East.

clfenwi · #19 Postby **clfenwi** » Fri May 12, 2006 5:00 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:Was 1996 a neutral year, or a La Nina year? I know there was a negative NAO that year, and I think ENSO was neutral (though not sure). I also know it was a wet gloomy Summer in the East.

Neutral

Source: http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/gl ... oyear.html

#20 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Fri May 12, 2006 5:04 pm

The year in question:

NOAA'S May update of ENSO=Neutral next 3-6 months

NOAA'S May update of ENSO=Neutral next 3-6 months

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