Finally found-scared all coworkers the Friday before Katrina

[Steve]

I know we're not supposed to embed images, so as long as this link works, here's the 18z early guidance (got about 2ish that afternoon) when the NHC had the storm still going into the Panhandle. I guess the various models depicted were in pretty good agreement.

http://www.uploadfile.info/uploads/9f38be091f.png

As many people have said, already at this point we didn't have 72 hours to evacuate but still got > 90% compliance. Not bad IMHO.

Steve

[Cookiely]

Steve, the link looks like LA and MS not the panhandle.

[Pearl River]

Cookiely wrote

[q]Steve, the link looks like LA and MS not the panhandle.[/q]

Look at the one that says OFCl that cuts across the Panhandle.

[TSmith274]

Hah yeah I was making preparations at that point. That much model agreement had me doubting the official NHC track into the panhandle. I believe the NHC track shifted that night, right?

[HurryKane]

I remember that one. That's when I told my coworkers we were in for some big trouble and some ignored me because it was later in the day and they still believed the NHC's track.

I got my happy butt to Wallyworld and made a final stock-up, and then called my parents to let them know I was coming up because it was going to be very, very bad. They still thought it was going to Florida at the time, too.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Yeah, I remember that one too. I also recall telling my friends that with that WSW drift, I thought the storm would definitely hit well west of the Panhandle projection. It was then that I really began to get antsy about this one...

A2K

[Steve]

Several posters on this board have previously said that the NHC had given 72 hours of notice to the LA coast. While we were certainly in the cone of possibilities, the track was far east of here (similar to Ivan, Dennis and other recent storms that curved and hit the NE Gulf). If I'm not mistaken, TPC, who was obviously well to the right of the model guidance, shifted their track some time Friday night. It was a major swing because I remember an S2K discussion about the NHC not liking to go 150-200 miles on a single advisory, prefering instead to gradually move their official track. However, as discussed, we were already within the 72 hour landfall window. Our state's evacuation plans require a minimum of 72 hours for them to work right in a staged evacuation of the most lowlying areas followed by the next set and then finally the contraflow and everyone else in harm's way. My understanding was that in the metro (about 1.4MM before Katrina) approximately 100-150k people remained. That's quite a feat considering the limited amount of time we had by Saturday morning when people started to get the message. Traffic was gridlocked almost all day Saturday, almost all night Saturday night and definitely all day Sunday. The storm made first landfall early Monday morning. But it was so big, we did catch a few wind gusts into the 20's over the spillway on our way up to Alexandria via the I-55 route. And that was well in advance of Katrina.

When I went back into my office in November, a printout of the attached link's photo (the 18Z guidance) was still on my receptionist's desk. I knew I had it saved, but just found it today. So I'm going to reiterate that the Mayor and Governor and several parish presidents did a good job in getting the word out to as many people as possible. Most heeded those warnings. Unfortunately the poverty forced many stranded residents and elderly in nursing home care to get left behind giving America its highest death toll from a hurricane in quite some time.

Steve

[Pearl River]

The 4:00pm cdt advisory had the official track between Biloxi and Pascagoula. It wasn't until the 10:00pm cdt advisory did they have the storm over the Pearl River.

[HurryKane]

If you want to get really semantic, we were all in the 5-day unvetted cone as early as Tuesday.

At any rate, I do recall getting up early Saturday morning to find that most of the NOLA stations were screaming bloody murder about how bad the storm was going to be and urging people to get ready/leave...meanwhile, the Biloxi station would jump in from time to time during the morning cartoons and go, "Hurricane's comin' y'all!" and go back to their regularly scheduled programming.

I thought the NOLA stations tried their best to get things rolling, too. From what I remember anyway.

[MGC]

I had the same responce Friday with my coworkers. I had predicted that Katrina had Louisiana written all over it when it was still in the Atlantic but was laughed at. I told my coworkers that many a hurricane that has struck south Florida eventually ends up in our neck of the woods. 1947, Betsy, Andrew to name a few.....MGC

[Rainband]

Charley was proof of why EVERYONE in the cone of possibilities should have been ready to take action. This was a BIG!!! Cat5 storm in the GOM. With all due respect, If I was in the Northern GOM I would have left as soon as my area was in the cone. The NHC did there job. Plain and clear cut simple.

[Scott_inVA]

TPC track to Panhandle was horribly wrong (something they have frequently acknowledged). Katrina post landfall #1 did not track as progged and TPC was slow to respond to that. I and several others here noted same. I blogged on my site and in my email Updates "NOLA" ~12 hours before TPC track did the big westward shift. From that point on, TPC was stellar...IMO, they did everything right.

Difference is I talk to just a few thousand people, TPC talks to millions. TPC did provide viable information for the NOLA Metro and the AL/MS coast. As discussed at the Hurricane Conference (and HERE for years!), the public simply did not comprehend what a large and power TC can and will do.

Here's some more maps, links denote the F/A times:
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/cyclone/ka ... 082600.png
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/cyclone/ka ... 082618.png
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/cyclone/ka ... 082700.png

On Thursday, Dr. Mayfield (who I still dislike) was honking in plain language this hurricane was big and *anyone* in the cone needed to begin preparations.
On Friday morning the track and trend was obvious.
By Friday afternoon it was clear what was going to happen.
Over 60 hours lead time with near pinpoint accuracy is about as good as anyone can expect at this time.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
Home of the *real* Model Maps
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[Steve]

>>Charley was proof of why EVERYONE in the cone of possibilities should have been ready to take action. This was a BIG!!! Cat5 storm in the GOM. With all due respect, If I was in the Northern GOM I would have left as soon as my area was in the cone. The NHC did there job. Plain and clear cut simple.

Yeah, but there's a lot that goes into it with an IH. You get super-adrenaline rush (and as everyone knows, most of us don't sleep a lot when there is a threat to track, so we're already on low sleep). You're in shellshock mode. And there are all the loose ends that need tying up - getting documents together, packing, picking up debris and stuff from outside, speaking to older relatives and helping with their needs, etc.

In the case of SE LA where there are only a few 4-lanes out of town, you have to time your evacuation or else it could take you 8 hours to get to Baton Rouge or southern Mississippi. In our personal situation, my wife (an RN) had to work from Saturday at 7pm to Sunday at 7am. So we couldn't leave before she got finished working. And of course there's always the chance the storm ends up going east of you and your preps were a fire drill (Georges, Ivan, Opal for here).

Basically, leaving at the first sign of the cone wasn't an option for us. But we did get out with plenty of time to spare before the weather deteriorated.

Steve