Dry May has ended

[TampaFl]

Dry May first page is locked so here is #2.


NOUS42 KEYW 120400
PNSEYW

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1200 AM EDT FRI MAY 12 2006

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST IN KEY WEST...

RECORD-BREAKING DRY CONDITIONS HAVE AFFECTED KEY WEST FOR NEARLY SIX
MONTHS. ON NOVEMBER 21 2005 KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECEIVED
0.66 INCHES OF RAIN. IN THE 171 DAYS SINCE THEN A TOTAL OF ONLY 1.05
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN. THIS IS THE DRIEST SUCH STRETCH ON RECORD
IN KEY WEST. THE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD NOVEMBER 22 THROUGH
MAY 11 IS 11.49 INCHES.

SINCE JANUARY 1 ONLY 1.00 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN. THIS IS THE
DRIEST BEGINNING TO A CALENDAR YEAR ON RECORD IN KEY
WEST...SURPASSING 1907 WHEN 1.05 INCHES OF RAIN FELL FROM JANUARY 1
THROUGH MAY 11. THE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THIS PERIOD IS 8.67 INCHES.

IN ADDITION...ONLY 0.06 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST 74
DAYS...WHICH IS THE DRIEST SUCH STRETCH ON RECORD IN KEY WEST.

OTHER RECORDS SET DURING THIS VERY DRY WINTER AND SPRING INCLUDE...

DRIEST DECEMBER EVER - 0.05 INCHES IN DEC 2005
8TH DRIEST MARCH EVER - 0.05 INCHES IN MAR 2006
2ND DRIEST APRIL EVER - 0.01 INCHES IN APR 2006
DRIEST TWO MONTH PERIOD EVER - 0.06 INCHES IN MAR-APR 2006
DRIEST FIVE MONTH PERIOD EVER - 1.05 INCHES IN DEC 2005-APR 2006

$$

LEE



[Aquawind]

[mobilebay]

This just keeps going, and going and going...

[gatorcane]

As I have said folks - patience. Currently there is a HEAVY line of showers and storms with MONSOON-like rains pounding parts of Palm Beach County right now. This broken line extends along a NW axis that will impact all of South Florida as it heads SE. This rain is rather unexpected and NOT predicted by the NWS.

Their previous discussion indicated the shower activity would end when the sun went down and the heating of the day was lost. The problem is that there is so much residual heat that has been building up for weeks now that it is too much - that combined with some energy that has broken off from the trough to the north has caused this situation.

I live in East Boca Raton and right now it is raining so hard it is unbelievable - woke me up out of a sound sleep. Probably a good 1-2 inches have fallen in 1/2 hour. Thunder and lightning everywhere.

This one storm alone combined with another one earlier this month will put us at comfortably above avg rainfall where the avg is just somewhere around 3 inches (I'll have to check this number).

In addition there are a pair of strong fronts expected to clear the area within the next few days - and a return of the hot/dry pattern is unlikely for a while now. I am calling for some Bermuda ridging to kick in now and by the end of the month a nice East breeze will finally return

No Dry May this year.

[gatorcane]

This is the last comment I will make on this thread as a dry May has already not happened with the good rains in Central and North Florida Mon. of this week and now South Florida....

[cycloneye]

[Windtalker1]

This is the last comment I will make on this thread as a dry May has already not happened with the good rains in Central and North Florida Mon. of this week and now South Florida....

Wish I can say the same...this morning a line of storms approached us from the North and fizzled out when it hit the Divie area...maybe rained for 3 mins and if were luckey maybe .001 of an inch

[Evil Jeremy]

it was pouring in Plantation FL (if any of you know where that is).

[benny]

This is the last comment I will make on this thread as a dry May has already not happened with the good rains in Central and North Florida Mon. of this week and now South Florida....

The Jim Lushine study suggested you needed little rain... average < two inches in the whole month... over the big 3 stations in SE FL (PBI, FLL, MIA) to have the "best" chance for landfall. I don't think this little piddly line is going to give anyone at least in the far se counties much rain. It looks like it is breaking up. That being said.. rain appears to be coming for next week.. non-tropical low development on a front for tue/wed. might be a svr wx event down here... haven't had real weather down here in forever.

Of course we could argue til the cows come home on why the relationships could work... does it have to do with the mid-latitude penetration of fronts? strength of the w atlc high? more mid-level wly flow over s florida in may leads to more troughing for the heart of hurricane season? hmmm

As far as my previous comment on the other locked thread... I just mean to look at climate patterns... look at the long term. 30 days or more.. if you are looking for features that persist despite any synoptic noise. That's where you will find any landfall signal in my best estimate. The ridges that set up in 04/05 were already in place at mid/high latitudes in May... but of course no two years are alike. 06 is already different and just doesn't look to have the same lacking of surface ridging that was the story of 05. models keep building this huge ridge beyond 120 hours but anyway that's just me rambling.

[jdray]

KBDI from yesterday:

Code: Select all

KBDI - May 11, 2006
STATE SUMMARY
   MEAN   CHANGE      (MIN/MAX)
     501     -29      (  15 / 755)

DISTRICT SUMMARY
   MEAN   CHANGE      (MIN/MAX)   DISTRICT
1     378     -35      (  18 / 620)   BLACKWATER
2     407     -79      (  56 / 645)   CHIPOLA
4     375     -87      (  21 / 585)   TALLAHASSEE
5     382     -66      (  16 / 650)   PERRY
6     448     -25      ( 104 / 619)   SUWANNEE
7     437     -54      (  46 / 620)   JACKSONVILLE
8     515     -28      ( 191 / 648)   WACCASASSA
10     563      -8      ( 156 / 664)   BUNNELL
11     549     -12      (  24 / 680)   WITHLACOOCHEE
12     549       2      (  30 / 701)   ORLANDO
14     539       5      (  41 / 676)   LAKELAND
15     586       4      (  51 / 696)   MYAKKA_RIVER
16     597       2      ( 104 / 739)   OKEECHOBEE
17     651       2      (  88 / 745)   CALOOSAHATCHEE
18     628      -0      (  15 / 755)   EVERGLADES

COUNTY SUMMARY
KBDI Range      Number of Counties (Percent)
0-99         0   ( 0.0)
100-199         0   ( 0.0)
200-299         0   ( 0.0)
300-399         15   (22.4)
400-499         16   (23.9)
500-599         25   (37.3)
600-699         11   (16.4)
700-799         0   ( 0.0)

   MEAN   CHANGE      (MIN/MAX)   COUNTY
1     487     -25      ( 210 / 622)   ALACHUA
2     440     -24      ( 221 / 574)   BAKER
3     456     -81      ( 226 / 645)   BAY
4     484     -10      ( 188 / 619)   BRADFORD
5     553       2      ( 203 / 701)   BREVARD
6     672       2      ( 199 / 749)   BROWARD
7     403    -108      ( 232 / 518)   CALHOUN
8     607       3      ( 209 / 696)   CHARLOTTE
9     539     -30      (  94 / 632)   CITRUS
10     545      -3      ( 218 / 620)   CLAY
11     649       2      (  91 / 745)   COLLIER
12     451     -24      ( 251 / 575)   COLUMBIA
13     620       2      ( 130 / 732)   DADE
14     610       3      ( 159 / 695)   DESOTO
15     388     -96      (  81 / 538)   DIXIE
16     398     -72      ( 104 / 563)   DUVAL
17     399     -35      ( 129 / 589)   ESCAMBIA
18     563      -2      ( 304 / 655)   FLAGLER
19     361    -129      (  81 / 533)   FRANKLIN
20     367     -64      ( 181 / 585)   GADSDEN
21     466     -56      ( 222 / 554)   GILCHRIST
22     608      -4      ( 148 / 685)   GLADES
23     430    -107      ( 205 / 588)   GULF
24     493     -29      ( 347 / 578)   HAMILTON
25     560       5      (  51 / 671)   HARDEE
26     647       2      ( 317 / 743)   HENDRY
27     560      -4      ( 138 / 680)   HERNANDO
28     604       3      ( 104 / 692)   HIGHLANDS
29     513       5      (  41 / 658)   HILLSBOROUGH
30     337     -52      ( 135 / 502)   HOLMES
31     549       3      ( 166 / 717)   INDIAN_RIVER
32     391     -63      ( 105 / 535)   JACKSON
33     398     -37      ( 129 / 554)   JEFFERSON
34     428     -52      ( 312 / 540)   LAFAYETTE
35     527      -9      ( 119 / 658)   LAKE
36     661       2      (  88 / 728)   LEE
37     351     -58      (  21 / 480)   LEON
38     474     -61      ( 191 / 634)   LEVY
39     379    -130      ( 143 / 532)   LIBERTY
40     437     -28      ( 147 / 650)   MADISON
41     567       4      ( 138 / 653)   MANATEE
42     548     -16      ( 253 / 629)   MARION
43     617       3      ( 212 / 739)   MARTIN
44     597       2      (  15 / 716)   MONROE
45     383     -78      (  46 / 576)   NASSAU
46     407     -41      (  79 / 620)   OKALOOSA
47     588       3      ( 140 / 700)   OKEECHOBEE
48     552      -1      (  30 / 680)   ORANGE
49     545       4      (  38 / 666)   OSCEOLA
50     623      -5      ( 191 / 755)   PALM_BEACH
51     570       5      ( 212 / 660)   PASCO
52     580       4      ( 390 / 676)   PINELLAS
53     548       5      ( 145 / 665)   POLK
54     560       0      ( 254 / 648)   PUTNAM
55     550     -13      ( 219 / 664)   ST_JOHNS
56     598       3      ( 216 / 710)   ST_LUCIE
57     335     -29      (  18 / 552)   SANTA_ROSA
58     593       3      ( 251 / 668)   SARASOTA
59     543       1      ( 288 / 657)   SEMINOLE
60     558     -30      (  24 / 680)   SUMTER
61     415     -35      ( 216 / 560)   SUWANNEE
62     311     -81      (  16 / 580)   TAYLOR
63     413     -17      ( 104 / 576)   UNION
64     570      -7      ( 156 / 642)   VOLUSIA
65     389    -102      ( 185 / 502)   WAKULLA
66     416     -67      ( 115 / 622)   WALTON
67     398     -89      (  56 / 554)   WASHINGTON


Most of North Central and the Panhandle is getting relief.
Duval and Nassau show relief in NE Florida. Clay & St Johnhs are still in the 500 range. Still high fire risks.

The rains helped, but we can still use a whole lot more.

http://flame.fl-dof.com/nws/kbdi/archiv ... 060511.gif
(being nice to the dial up users)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

No rain in St. Petersburg, Fl at least where I live...rains missed us to the
north and east
Very dry...some rain a few days ago but only about an inch since February 5th

[gatorcane]

[CHRISTY]

DRY WEATHER WILL BE UPON US SOON ONCE AGAIN....



00
FXUS62 KMFL 121253
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
853 AM EDT FRI MAY 12 2006

.UPDATE...LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA HAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHED...WITH MOST ACTIVITY NOW WELL
OFFSHORE. LINGERING SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WILL
SOON BE OFFSHORE AS WELL. MODELS INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE PENINSULA LATER ON...SO HAVE
LEFT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES. MENTION
OF THUNDER WILL BE DROPPED. WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND MUCH DRIER AIR
SPREADS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING INTERIOR
ZONES. FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

[CHRISTY]

FXUS62 KMFL 121832
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...PROSPECTS FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. IN THE
MEANTIME...DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SETTING THE STAGE FOR A PLEASANT
WEEKEND. EXCEPT FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY
BENIGN NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL REACH DOWN INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S NORTH INTERIOR ZONES AND 60S ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MORE COMFORTABLE MID 80S RANGE
MOST AREAS. THE CHANGE IN LONGWAVE PATTERN FAVORING A DEEP TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRESENT A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN
THE NEAR FUTURE. GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT BRINGING NEXT LATE
SEASON COLD FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS MIAMI BY LATE TUESDAY. THE FRONT
IS THEN FORECAST TO STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. FROM THAT POINT
ON...GFS HAS BEEN PRESENTING SCENARIOS VARYING FROM SIGNIFICANT
LOW PRESSURE GENERATION ALONG THE FRONT TO JUST A FEW IMPULSES
MOVING EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN ANY CASE...CHANCES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL LOOK PRETTY GOOD WITH THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO. A SHORTWAVE MIGRATING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT ALL THE WAY
PAST THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

[Bocadude85]

As I have said folks - patience. Currently there is a HEAVY line of showers and storms with MONSOON-like rains pounding parts of Palm Beach County right now. This broken line extends along a NW axis that will impact all of South Florida as it heads SE. This rain is rather unexpected and NOT predicted by the NWS.

Their previous discussion indicated the shower activity would end when the sun went down and the heating of the day was lost. The problem is that there is so much residual heat that has been building up for weeks now that it is too much - that combined with some energy that has broken off from the trough to the north has caused this situation.

I live in East Boca Raton and right now it is raining so hard it is unbelievable - woke me up out of a sound sleep. Probably a good 1-2 inches have fallen in 1/2 hour. Thunder and lightning everywhere.

This one storm alone combined with another one earlier this month will put us at comfortably above avg rainfall where the avg is just somewhere around 3 inches (I'll have to check this number).

In addition there are a pair of strong fronts expected to clear the area within the next few days - and a return of the hot/dry pattern is unlikely for a while now. I am calling for some Bermuda ridging to kick in now and by the end of the month a nice East breeze will finally return

No Dry May this year.

Actually only about half an inch of rain fell, hardly enough to put us at average or above avergae.

[gatorcane]

Actually only about half an inch of rain fell, hardly enough to put us at average or above avergae.

Don't worry you will get your fair share soon if you missed out - .

000
FXUS62 KMFL 121832
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 12 2006

DISCUSSION...PROSPECTS FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. IN THE
MEANTIME...DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SETTING THE STAGE FOR A PLEASANT
WEEKEND. EXCEPT FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY
BENIGN NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL REACH DOWN INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S NORTH INTERIOR ZONES AND 60S ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MORE COMFORTABLE MID 80S RANGE
MOST AREAS. THE CHANGE IN LONGWAVE PATTERN FAVORING A DEEP TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRESENT A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN
THE NEAR FUTURE. GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT BRINGING NEXT LATE
SEASON COLD FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS MIAMI BY LATE TUESDAY. THE FRONT
IS THEN FORECAST TO STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. FROM THAT POINT
ON...GFS HAS BEEN PRESENTING SCENARIOS VARYING FROM SIGNIFICANT
LOW PRESSURE GENERATION ALONG THE FRONT TO JUST A FEW IMPULSES
MOVING EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN ANY CASE...CHANCES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL LOOK PRETTY GOOD WITH THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO. A SHORTWAVE MIGRATING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT ALL THE WAY
PAST THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Well so much for dry May.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well so much for dry May.

Last may was not so dry I don't believe.

[WeatherEmperor]

Well so much for dry May.

Last may was not so dry I don't believe.

you are correct. The 2005 May was actually very wet.

<RICKY>

[Ivanhater]

GFS is showing rain for south Florida with many lows(maybe tropical down the road doubt it but who knows) crossing the state