GFS..Early season storm?

#41 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu May 11, 2006 9:29 pm

I would have to say it could get interesting if it moves over the Southern GOM. Water temps are warm enough.

It should eventually move NE and then ENE as a couple of strong cold fronts for this time of year dig in across the SE US and into Florida...

Could this bring alot of rain to South Florida?

I think it will be POOF by tomorrow AM :lol:

#42 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu May 11, 2006 9:37 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:Currently it looks like there is a BIG mess over the Yucatan.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUIR.JPG
Is this what the GFS is hinting at?

No. What gfs is talking about was over 300+ hours from now. Whatever is there now will be long gone in 14-15 days.

EDIT: Grammar Error

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #43 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu May 11, 2006 9:54 pm

I really don't think we will have our first intill around the 5th or so of June.

CHRISTY · #44 Postby **CHRISTY** » Thu May 11, 2006 10:48 pm

Guys I think the models are trying to tell us something...not that we will see a capeverde storm in may,but that we can expect trouble from that region when the time is right.Guys this is the signal models sent last spring and became Prophecy with capeverde Depressions that withstood the odds to become monsters like Katrina and rita.

PS!These waves might run into Hostile conditons right of the coast but they might hold together and develope closer to home. :roll:

#45 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu May 11, 2006 10:49 pm

what are you seeing in the models that indicate a situation like last year with CV waves that waited to develop until closer to home?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #46 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu May 11, 2006 10:51 pm

I would watch the Eastern Pacific because there seems to be systems starting to form. Not quite depression but getting there.

#47 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu May 11, 2006 11:06 pm

It definitely is far enough north - I'm not sure what that prior comment was all about. The only thing it has going against it is climatology since the EPAC rarely gets started before May 15th and May 15th is Mon....I'd say give it a few days and we may have something....

Now what is INTERESTING is where it would go. There are two strong troughs expected to dig down into the GOM and East coast of the US this weekend and early next week. We could have a situation like last year - where a system in the EPAC gets pulled NE and then ENE into the Caribbean and out into the far Atlantic....we shall see...

Any thoughts on this movement possibility?

JamesFromMaine2 · #48 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Fri May 12, 2006 11:32 am

That would be an interesting way to kick off the Atlantic season with a system just like the first system of last year!

CHRISTY · #49 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri May 12, 2006 1:51 pm

This from the Lastest NWS discussion....

Interesting they are mentioning possible Low Pressure development along a stalled front in our area,meaning southflorida.next week!

THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. FROM THAT POINT
ON...GFS HAS BEEN PRESENTING SCENARIOS VARYING FROM SIGNIFICANT
LOW PRESSURE GENERATION ALONG THE FRONT TO JUST A FEW IMPULSES
MOVING EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

southerngale · #50 Postby **southerngale** » Fri May 12, 2006 2:00 pm

There will be no talk of any developing storms on this board, ok?

#51 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Fri May 12, 2006 2:07 pm

can i have the link to the NWS discussion please? or is it the same one as one the NHC website page?

#52 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri May 12, 2006 2:09 pm

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/printable.php?p ... 0512183233

here jeremy

#53 Postby **bvigal** » Fri May 12, 2006 4:08 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:CARIBBEAN SEA...
...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTRED TSTMS ARE AFFECTING THE
EASTERN SECTOR OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO AND THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... INCLUDING ALSO THE MONA PASSAGE. REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL BRINGING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS MODEL IS DEVELOPING A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS OR SO. THIS COUPLED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE WITH THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY. ...

Interesting! I missed that yesterday as we were getting bombarded with lightning, thunder, and frog-strangling rain plus the power out! (try to post some pics later, you won't believe the mud, LOL)

This 1010mb low pressure described by model would not surprise me at all. Will it become a tropical closed low? I doubt it.

Speaking of things with spin... (as the daylight wanes) I know there's a wave placed at 35w at 12z, but has anybody noticed that great spin and convection organization at 9N 48W? Wow, that looks pretty good.
sat loop - visible so only good for a little bit
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

#54 Postby **bvigal** » Fri May 12, 2006 5:06 pm

since the visible imagery is now gone, here's a gif loop
click here

JamesFromMaine2 · #55 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Fri May 12, 2006 6:30 pm

looks like its moving north-west it might not go on land so could it maybe develop with such a well defind spin to it?

#56 Postby **bvigal** » Fri May 12, 2006 7:07 pm

It lost a lot of convection at sunset. I know the models have nothing on this, so it's probably going inland fast. It just looked interesting on satellite... really brings it home that season isn't far off.

#57 Postby **Stephanie** » Fri May 12, 2006 9:05 pm

southerngale wrote:There will be no talk of any developing storms on this board, ok?

Love to promise that for you guys in the Gulf but...

GFS..Early season storm?

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