Joe Bastardi wrote:http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/jb_hurricane_review2004.asp#ivan
Joe says in a 2004 article about Ivan...
"I violated my own rule of never changing a track forecast that is right. The fact that timing was off by 24 hours weighed heavily on me, so the track, for the 24 hours starting Friday morning, was taken to Florida. By doing so, it ruined, to me, what would have been the right call from the getgo. "
I want to take a minute to say somthing about this. Hurricane forecasting is a difficult science that is made easier by experienced forecasters working together. The NHC has several forecasters and a host of support personnel bouncing ideas off each other and working together.
I haven't read much of Joe B's stuff in the past so I decided to read a few more articles to get a feel for his style. What hit me was the fact that he uses personal pronouns like "I", "me", and "my" so often. What it illustrates is that it seems to be a one-man-show over there.
Oddly enough he also seems to be sincere about his methods and I'll give him credit for "thinking-outside-the-box" when it comes to forecasts. But the problem with being sincere is that you can also be sincerely wrong.
When a person is a one-man-show calling all the shots himself, he isn't tempered by other people with conflicting opinions and is bound to miss things, even big things.
That's why we have a President and Congress instead of a King. A king has absolute power and can decide things at his own whim. But Max Mayfield is like the President, with Congress working steadily with him to get the job done.
I think the NHC represents maturity and science, where as this article represents think-outside-the-box-let's-see-if-this-works type of thinking. I think the world needs people like Joe to keep the older guys on their toes. But it shouldn't be done in public where people are using his forecasts.
But I suppose the real problem is that people don't want to think for themselves and truly understand the basics of hurricanes and forecast tracks. They want a pre-packaged TV-Dinner forecast that they can follow like Zombies.
Following the NHC guidance like a zombie is just as bad as following the Accuweather forecast like a zombie. It's much better to take every forecast with a grain of salt and stay prepared all season.
But as Dr. Avila said in a Talkin' Tropics interview a few weeks ago, people will always come back to the expertise of the NHC.
