GFS..Early season storm?

[Extremeweatherguy]

If it already is this active now...I can't imagine how crazy the GFS is going to go this hurricane season!

[Texmedic]

Forgive my ignorance, but why the preference (if you can call it that) of GFS? Or is there one?

[HURAKAN]

Forgive my ignorance, but why the preference (if you can call it that) of GFS? Or is there one?

It's usually the most accurate.

[jimvb]

At two weeks out, GFS, as far as I know, is the most accurate model, since it is the ONLY model that goes out that far.

[Texmedic]

Interesting. I was led to believe elsewhere that the FSU mm5fsu was a highly accurate model. How far in the future I cannot tell you.

[HURAKAN]

At two weeks out, GFS, as far as I know, is the most accurate model, since it is the ONLY model that goes out that far.

That's my opinion as well.

[Stephanie]

We've had early tropical storms before.

To me, at least from what I've noticed about it is that it's usually correct about a storm developing, but the intensity is usually the question. It seems like it over does it this far out, loses it in the mid term and then brings it back to a lesser degree in the short term.

We are getting close to the beginning of the season, so anything is possible.

[Downdraft]

There aren't enough alphabets Greek or otherwise to handle every storm the GFS spins up.

[Aquawind]

There aren't enough alphabets Greek or otherwise to handle every storm the GFS spins up.

LOL.. GFS convective feedback comes to mind. But yeah YA NEVER know for those that wanna believe.

[boca]

I think the one at 8N and 88W will form first rather than off the Yucatan.

[benny]

Never take anything into account 16 days in advance. It's too uncertain.

I'll just echo that thought. The GFS model has no skill beyond 8 days. None. By the time you get to beyond Day 10.. it is just as good to pull a map out of a drawer and use it as a forecast. Any real skill beyond a week or so is enhanced by ensembles and the strong winter mid-latitude season.. during the summer.. beyond 7 days is a figment of the model's imagination.

I will say I like looking there though For fun only...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Heck those satellite pics of LA shows that New orleans is no longer protected at all. A strong tropical storm could do as much damage as a weak cat2. Do you agree? Also I agree this is likely will not happen.

[HURAKAN]

I think FPL is preparing my neighborhood for the next hurricane. We have had today at least 4 power outrages. Some lasted seconds the last one lasted about 5 minutes. What is funny is that always my block is affected and everyone else around isn't. Last year during Katrina we were the first to loose electricity and the last get it back. By the way, my electricity comes from underground. I live in the 26th terrace and the poles that supply electricity to my neighborhood are in the 34th street.

[cheezyWXguy]

maybe its true

[cheezyWXguy]

maybe its true

[cheezyWXguy]

maybe its true

[Extremeweatherguy]

I wouldn't be too worried though, because even if it develops this early in the season it will likely never reach hurricane status. So even if it was to become a tropical storm, it would likely only make landfall as a weak system with little damage and hopefully no deaths.

[Vortex]

18Z Continues to depict an active area from the yucatan through the SE gulf.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_384l.gif

[cheezyWXguy]

whoa...i posted 3 times...my bad

[HurricaneHunter914]

Currently it looks like there is a BIG mess over the Yucatan.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUIR.JPG
Is this what the GFS is hinting at?