EPAC mid to long range

x-y-no · #21 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon May 08, 2006 10:36 am

Looks like the GFS is exhibiting the same kind of flip-flops between the 0z and 6z runs as were common last year.

Here's the 6z at the same timepoint:

Much weaker. The 12Z will be run up to that point within the hour, I predict it'll be stronger again, and the 18z weaker.

x-y-no · #22 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon May 08, 2006 11:42 am

OK ... I was wrong. 12z run looks much like the 6z.

#23 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue May 09, 2006 3:55 pm

looks like gfs keeps it weak and takes the energy northeast across central America into the Caribbean

weatherwindow · #24 Postby **weatherwindow** » Wed May 10, 2006 7:43 am

per the epac TWD 10z 05/10....altho the gfs isnt deepening the costa rican coastal low past 1008mb, the TAFB suggest that deepening over the next five days is a fair possibility, given high pressure aloft....suggesting a westward motion.......rich

x-y-no · #25 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed May 10, 2006 8:20 am

weatherwindow wrote:per the epac TWD 10z 05/10....altho the gfs isnt deepening the costa rican coastal low past 1008mb, the TAFB suggest that deepening over the next five days is a fair possibility, given high pressure aloft....suggesting a westward motion.......rich

Interesting ...

If this actually develops, I'm going to have to do a little bragging. ;-)

no advance · #26 Postby **no advance** » Wed May 10, 2006 11:35 am

Yiou deserve it if something pops.

#27 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed May 10, 2006 11:53 am

x-y-no wrote:
weatherwindow wrote:per the epac TWD 10z 05/10....altho the gfs isnt deepening the costa rican coastal low past 1008mb, the TAFB suggest that deepening over the next five days is a fair possibility, given high pressure aloft....suggesting a westward motion.......rich

Interesting ...

If this actually develops, I'm going to have to do a little bragging.

lol, no doubt, you did see this coming :wink:

#28 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed May 10, 2006 11:54 am

x-y-no wrote:
weatherwindow wrote:per the epac TWD 10z 05/10....altho the gfs isnt deepening the costa rican coastal low past 1008mb, the TAFB suggest that deepening over the next five days is a fair possibility, given high pressure aloft....suggesting a westward motion.......rich

Interesting ...

If this actually develops, I'm going to have to do a little bragging.

Is this the same thing I am noticiing over here?
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 3&start=20

#29 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed May 10, 2006 11:56 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:
x-y-no wrote:
weatherwindow wrote:per the epac TWD 10z 05/10....altho the gfs isnt deepening the costa rican coastal low past 1008mb, the TAFB suggest that deepening over the next five days is a fair possibility, given high pressure aloft....suggesting a westward motion.......rich

Interesting ...

If this actually develops, I'm going to have to do a little bragging.

Is this the same thing I am noticiing over here?
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 3&start=20

yes

#30 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed May 10, 2006 1:38 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Would you say that spin near 10N and 89.00 west looks like it's in the lower or upper levels?

clfenwi · #31 Postby **clfenwi** » Wed May 10, 2006 1:54 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/epac-vis-loop.html

Would you say that spin near 10N and 89.00 west looks like it's in the lower or upper levels?

It's low level... from the latest TWD

AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT 1200 UTC ALONG 88N SOUTH OF 12N WITH
A POSSIBLE WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 10N88W.

x-y-no · #32 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu May 11, 2006 8:29 am

Well, I think this is a dead issue. Looks like it's going to move west rather than stay close in, and it doesn't look likely to develop.

EPAC mid to long range

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