Dry May is certain

CHRISTY · #161 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 10, 2006 3:31 pm

Guys for all we know florida will be slammed by Multiple hurricanes again!
After all florida has been seeing multiple hits since 2004.Hopefully we wont have to add 2006 to that list.

HURRICANELONNY · #162 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Wed May 10, 2006 4:41 pm

It is true that there is a better chance for strikes in Florida if there is a dry May but I think it won't end up dry. There is a pattern change coming where there will be more troughs on the east coast that should bring up more moisture to Florida. How long it last I don't know but hopefully for awhile. I hope all season and all storms head out to sea. I need a break this year. :roll:

boca · #163 Postby **boca** » Wed May 10, 2006 4:46 pm

I just spent a ton of money on hurricane shutters so since I did that we shouldn't get hits this year. (crossed Fingers)

CHRISTY · #164 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 10, 2006 4:58 pm

Ok i have a question for Promets? This maybe a true sign the rainy season is about to start for the southeast,but my question is i really dont think we can already say 2006 will favor more troughs of the eastcoast because isnt this normal for the rainy season.My guess is this pattern will not last threw hurricane season.does anyone know what were the conditions last year around may and june were there troughs coming of the U.S.?

(Here is the very lastest disscussion from the NWS favoring this pattern change!)

000
FXUS62 KMFL 101831
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
231 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL ON SCHEDULE FOR
EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE FINALLY SETTLED ON THIS TIME
FRAME. GFS MOS GUIDANCE STILL VERY LOW ON POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
GIVEN REASONABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND SEABREEZE
FORCING ON THURSDAY...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY.
STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH ANY ACTIVITY TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. MET MOS GUIDANCE MUCH HIGHER THAN MAV WITH POPS IN
THE LIKELY RANGE. LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE CONTINENT BEGINNING TO
FAVOR TROUGHINESS TOWARD THE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
APPEARS PATTERN SHIFTING TOWARD ONE THAT WILL ALLOW COLD FRONTS TO
APPROACH OR PASS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON A MORE REGULAR BASIS.
THIS BODES WELL FOR CHANCES OF RAIN. GFS SHOWS ANOTHER FROPA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE OUT AHEAD OF
IT...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. MODEL HAS BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

#165 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed May 10, 2006 5:01 pm

If this plays out I will be very happy to get some rain here.

boca · #166 Postby **boca** » Wed May 10, 2006 5:03 pm

Christy remember last May we had above rainfall due to these troughs.We need this pattern to stick around so the Bermuda high won't have a chance to build back in. This pattern probably won't hold very long. Pray for rain. The sky today was one color tan all the way around, no blue sky whatsoever and no clouds. BRUSHFIRES GALORE.

CHRISTY · #167 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 10, 2006 5:09 pm

boca wrote:Christy remember last May we had above rainfall due to these troughs.We need this pattern to stick around so the Bermuda high won't have a chance to build back in. This pattern probably won't hold very long. Pray for rain. The sky today was one color tan all the way around, no blue sky whatsoever and no clouds. BRUSHFIRES GALORE.

yea boca i feel the same way that pattern probably wont be around to long.

boca · #168 Postby **boca** » Wed May 10, 2006 5:13 pm

Let's pray we get some rain while we have this pattern which in reality hasn't materialized yet atleast for S FL because yesterday the trough looked like it would give us much needed rain but dissapated as it progressed SE.

CHRISTY · #169 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 10, 2006 5:19 pm

boca wrote:Let's pray we get some rain while we have this pattern which in reality hasn't materialized yet atleast for S FL because yesterday the trough looked like it would give us much needed rain but dissapated as it progressed SE.

very true boca...yesterday i was at work and i was looking at different radar loops and i really thought we would get some rain but it just didnt happen it lost alot of energy once it got down here.

MiamiensisWx · #170 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Wed May 10, 2006 5:21 pm

Actually, if this current pattern holds, it may not likely mean good news for Florida at all. It may lessen the risk of being hit from the east, but it could mean a high risk later in the season (October/November) of being hit from the southwest and western Caribbean if it holds, especially for an Irene, Wilma, or Michelle scenario. Everyone is under the gun every season, and don't say we will - or won't - get hit. This type of pattern would favor the risk of a late-season hit or brush to Florida from the south or southwest from the Caribbean.

CHRISTY · #171 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 10, 2006 5:24 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Actually, if this current pattern holds, it may not likely mean good news for Florida at all. It may lessen the risk of being hit from the east, but it could mean a high risk later in the season (October/November) of being hit from the southwest and western Caribbean if it holds, especially for an Irene, Wilma, or Michelle scenario. Everyone is under the gun every season, and don't say we will - or won't - get hit. This type of pattern would favor the risk of a late-season hit or brush to Florida from the south or southwest from the Caribbean.

capeverdewave i think u are jumping way ahead of yourself...think about it the heart of the season is months away,god knows what pattern will be in place!

boca · #172 Postby **boca** » Wed May 10, 2006 5:26 pm

Patterns always change in weather normally.Although its been months with ours here in Florida, but normally a pattern locks in for one or two weeks then changes again.

MiamiensisWx · #173 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Wed May 10, 2006 5:26 pm

CHRISTY wrote:capeverdewave i think u are jumping way ahead of yourself...think about it the heart of the season is months away,god knows what pattern will be in place!

I am NOT jumping ahead of myself. I never said this pattern will hold... I am just saying it is a possibility and what the setup and patterns in the season might be if it holds. Also, I never said Florida is off the hook. Read more carefully. Thanks.

CHRISTY · #174 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 10, 2006 5:31 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:capeverdewave i think u are jumping way ahead of yourself...think about it the heart of the season is months away,god knows what pattern will be in place!

I am NOT jumping ahead of myself. I never said this pattern will hold... I am just saying it is a possibility and what the setup and patterns in the season might be if it holds. Also, I never said Florida is off the hook. Read more carefully. Thanks.

chill capeverdewave iam just commenting on what your saying my godness... :roll:

MiamiensisWx · #175 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Wed May 10, 2006 5:34 pm

CHRISTY wrote:chill capeverdewave iam just commenting on what your saying my godness...

I AM calm. I was just saying for you to read my comment more carefully. Thanks.

CHRISTY · #176 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 10, 2006 5:52 pm

Lets all be happy.... :22:

CHRISTY · #177 Postby **CHRISTY** » Thu May 11, 2006 6:57 am

Probably not much rain with this upcoming front scheduled to move into our area by tommorow.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
516 AM EDT THU MAY 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...

AS WELL ADVERTISED THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THERE IS A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND SAT IMAGERY CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH IN THAT TIME FRAME.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NOT
LIKELY TO PENETRATE VERY FAR EAST...IF IT FORMS AT ALL...AND
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS SHOULD FAVOR THE CONVECTION OVER
THE EASTERN HALF. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST INCLUDES SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.

ONCE THE FRONT STARTS TO PASS THROUGH TONIGHT...MUCH MORE
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE CONVECTION AND PRECIP WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH VERY
QUICKLY. LATER FRIDAY MORNING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON NEARLY THROUGH IT AND
ENTERING THE KEYS. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES..,A
COOLER AND DRY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

HurricaneHunter914 · #178 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu May 11, 2006 7:07 am

Rain is on the way!

CHRISTY · #179 Postby **CHRISTY** » Thu May 11, 2006 7:14 am

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:Rain is on the way!

Dont get to happy because the last couple of fronts that have tryed to make there way into southflorida they have just run out of energy.so lets see what happens with this one.we will probably get some scattered showers with it if lucky.but i guess something is better then nothing right! :wink:

HurricaneHunter914 · #180 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu May 11, 2006 7:23 am

I live in Sanford so I'm going to get alot of this rain hopefully. I have been traking the storms all day and you and I will get some rain today.

Dry May is certain

MAY

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