SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic and Pacific #2

[txwatcher91]

SST'S arent everything u always have look at the HEAT CONTENT and right now its not that great for tropical formation at all.

Actually, heat content in the GOM is higher than it was at this time last year.
May 8,2005
May 8,2006

[SouthFloridawx]

Latest Anomaly

5-8-06


5-7-05

[Aquawind]

Cooler EPAC and MDR in the ATL.. but it's all early and last year the water was warm at great depth which was key in the repeated majors over the same waters.

[benny]

remember, SST is MEANINGLESS

Must look at total oceanic heat content

SST is meaningless in what way? Heat content to support a hurricane is quite minimal.. like 20 units or something like that. SST is most certainly not meaningless and has a lot of meaning. Of course it depends on what you are trying to use it for.. but for climate purposes it means something

[benny]

Does that mean the SST's are very low for this time of year in the GOM?[/quote/]

SST'S arent everything u always have look at the HEAT CONTENT and right now its not that great for tropical formation at all.

This heat content thing is way overblown. All you need to support a hurricane is a heat content of about 20 units. Dr. Shay at Miami has said this repeatly in his talks. What is controlling genesis at this point is not the ocean but the quality of the waves and the exceptionally strong shear! The SSTs will be there in June when things start happening.. the Gulf has 3 more weeks to bake and the depth of the warmer water will increase markedly enough to support a major hurricane. I wish I had heat content maps of Sept 2003 that showed Isabel moving thru heat content with barely 50 units as a Category 5 hurricane (moving slowly about 10 kt as well).

[Derek Ortt]

20 units is NOT going to support a major hurricane. Every time one has moved over that water, rapid weakening results


Katrina, Rita, and Wilma all blew up over waters with heat content at or above 100 units. Once Katrina and Rita moved away from the loop current, they collapsed, especially Katrina, which did a very nice Lili imitation (unfortunately, it just started at a much greater intensity)

[Scorpion]

Wasn't the main factor for the weakening dry air getting entrained?

[Derek Ortt]

I believe it was the heat content

Remember, it is only the major hurricanes that weaken before landfall... implying a thermodynamic constraint. The weaker storms intensity. The again, the heat content is higher than it is currently (but it will increase during the next few weeks)

[benny]

20 units is NOT going to support a major hurricane. Every time one has moved over that water, rapid weakening results


Katrina, Rita, and Wilma all blew up over waters with heat content at or above 100 units. Once Katrina and Rita moved away from the loop current, they collapsed, especially Katrina, which did a very nice Lili imitation (unfortunately, it just started at a much greater intensity)

Oh I totally agree.. 20 units just doesn't seem to be enough to support a major hurricane. However it is instructive to go back and look at the old hurricanes of the East Atlantic (where the heat content is rather small).. Felix of 2001, Jeanne of 98, Kate of 2003... that one is especially notable... major hurricane at 30n50w on october 1. I would make a fair bet that the heat content wasn't much in that location then (anyone got that image???) The atmosphere controls which hurricanes become major in the long run.. not the ocean. Left to their own devices... hurricanes without shear really only need SSTs in the 27ish range to become majors... there is a lot to learn but i'm convinced that the atmosphere is about 90% responsible for the intensity changes and that the ocean might do about 10%. Granted this is over the open ocean away from shelf water.. then it is more important. Warmer deeper water might also help storms intensify faster but that is speculation at this point (maybe just important for the slow-moving systems that upwell water)

[CHRISTY]

Hey guys here are two SST maps from 2005 and 2006 from the gulf of mexico and the carribean.

Here's 2005...





Here's 2006....

[benny]

I believe it was the heat content

Remember, it is only the major hurricanes that weaken before landfall... implying a thermodynamic constraint. The weaker storms intensity. The again, the heat content is higher than it is currently (but it will increase during the next few weeks)

What doesn't seem to be favorable is a hurricane intensifying over a very warm deep ocean then moving into a warm but not as shallow one. However you get systems like Alicia 1983, Elena 1985 that just intensify relatively close to the coast without much regard for heat content. If the atmosphere is right.. it doesn't take much warm water to create a major hurricane.

[benny]

[quote="CHRISTY"]Hey guys here are two SST maps from 2005 and 2006 from the gulf of mexico and the carribean.
/quote]

Got a long ways to go to catch 2005 in the Caribbean... but warmer in the GOM/Gulf Stream.

[Ivan14]

Cooler in the Caribbean but a lot warmer in the Gulf. If there will be a hurricane this year to beat Wilma's pressure it will probably be in the Gulf.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I agree we are going to see some pretty strong Hurricanes in the Carib. but in the GOM will probably see some very strong hurricanes as long as dry air and wind shear don't but in.

[Scorpion]

It's far too early to tell. The GOM can have exceptionally strong hurricanes every year if the shear permits.

[CHRISTY]

i was just looking at some SST maps and i noticed a warm dot near the yucatan ...that dark shade is 80 degress plus!its been getting bigger this past week hopefully it wont continue.the gulf of mexico is definately getting warmer.

[Ivan14]

I just now noticed that 80 degree spot. It is getting hotter out there in the Gulf and the Caribbean.

[HurricaneHunter914]

That warm 80 degree eddy in the BOC is growing aswell.

[Ivan14]

Man every day it is getting hotter. Compare yesterdays SSTs to today's SSTs there is quiet a difference.

[gatorcane]

I don't remember it being so hot in May this time last year. It is a furnace around South Florida - I expect waters to be warmer around the Straits and GOM accordingly.